Average Annual Entries and Clearances.1870-741890-94British tonnageengagedin theforeign trade ofthe U.K.2855German"""Germany410French"""France59United States"""the U.S.79
The figures for 1890-94 may be illustrated diagrammatically as on opposite page.
It must be noticed that this comparison takes no account of the enormous carrying trade done by this country for foreign countries or British Colonies trading with one another; nor are there figures available for showing how in this matter we compare with our rivals. The figures, if they existed, would show that in this international industry Great Britain is first, and the rest of the world nowhere.
United KingdomUnited Kingdom.GermanyGermany.FranceFrance.United StatesUnited States.(By permission of the Proprietors of the “Daily Graphic.â€)
United KingdomUnited Kingdom.
GermanyGermany.
FranceFrance.
United StatesUnited States.
Before passing to another point it is worth while to call attention to the enormous development of the coasting branch of our shipping trade, as shown in the figures given above. This branch of shipping is really of the nature of internal traffic, as distinguished from foreign trade. That it should have increased so steadily and so rapidly is by itself a striking proof of the commercial activity of the country.
Proof even more convincing is apparent in the enormous development of our railway system. It is difficult to know from which side first to approach the tremendous figures in which this development is portrayed. Taking, at hazard, mileage first, we find within the last twenty-five years an increase of 6,000 miles in our railway system—namely, from 15,000 in 1870, to 21,000 in 1895. Of this increase, 2,000 miles are due to the last decade. Looking next at the capital expenditure, we find that in the ten years from 1885 to 1895 the total capital of the various railway companies of the United Kingdom rose from 816 millions sterling to 1,001 millions. Part of this immense increase was, it is true, only nominal, being due to consolidation of stock, etc. But when all allowance has been made on that score, we are left with a real net increase in the ten years of 170 millionssterling. During the same period of ten years the receipts from passenger traffic rose from 30 millions sterling to 37 millions, while the receipts from goods traffic rose from 36 to 44 millions. In the last quarter of a century the number of passengers carried by the railways, exclusive of season-ticket holders, has risen from 337 millions to 930 millions. Were it possible to record the number of journeys made by season-ticket holders, we should obtain an even more striking picture of the development of passenger traffic on our railways. Such figures as are available are given in the next table, and illustrated by the accompanying diagrams:—
Ten Years’ Work and Receipts.
1886188718881889189018911892189318941895Goods carried:—Million Tons255269282297303310309293324334Passengers carried: Million persons726734742775818845864873911930Goods receipts:—Million £’s36·437·338·741·142·243·242·941·043·444·0Passenger receipts: Million £’s30·230·631·032·634·335·135·735·836·537·4
The figures may be illustrated diagrammatically as follows:—
The Railways of the UK(By permission of the Proprietors of the “Daily Graphic.â€)
Passengers1870—337 Millions.Passengers1895—930 Millions.RAILWAY PASSENGERS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM (exclusive of season-ticket holders).(By permission of the Proprietors of the “Daily Graphic.â€)
Passengers1870—337 Millions.
Passengers1895—930 Millions.
These diagrams and the figures they illustrate hardly look as if the nation were on the verge of decay, ruined by German cheap goods. If such be the signs of national collapse, no country in the world can be called prosperous. For there is this feature about our railway development which entirely differentiates it from the railway expansion of newer countries—that every pound of capital required has come out of our own pockets: we have borrowed from no one. Instead, while planking down in ten years 170 new millions to add to our own railways, we have been lending with large hands to railway builders in every part of the globe.
From railways we pass to tramways. Here the figures are less considerable in amount, but they are striking enough. In 1876 there were only 158 miles of tramway open for public traffic; by 1885 that number had risen to 811 miles, and by 1895 to 982 miles. In the same periods the paid-up capital had increased from 2 millions sterling to 12, and thence to 14 millions. Lastly, between 1885 and 1895 the number of passengers carried upon tramways has risen from 365 millions to 662 millions. These figures are principally interesting because the tramcar is essentially a popular means of conveyance. If the working-classes of this country are being reduced to starvation, as the Protectionists say, by the invading Teuton, it is astounding that they should be able to afford so many pennies to pay for tram fares.
From this last comparatively limited but not unimportant test of the general prosperity of the country, we pass to the Post Office returns. Next to the test of railway traffic, already dealt with, no better evidence of the prosperity and commercial activity of a country can be found than is furnished by the growth of post office business. A nation whose trade is being filched from it by foreigners, whose blast furnaces are cold, and whose looms are silent, as Mr. Williams would have us believe, does not add every year forty million letters to the amount of its correspondence. Yet this is what we have been doing in the United Kingdom for a good many years past. Starting from the year ending March 31st, 1878, when a slight alteration was made in the method of presenting the statistics, we find that in thenineteen years that have since elapsed the number of letters delivered annually has increased from 1,058 millions to 1,834 millions. In the same period postcards have increased from 102 millions to 315 millions; newspapers and book packets, from 318 to 821 millions. Moreover, the increase has been steady, with one significant exception. In the year 1894-95, which was notoriously a year of bad trade, there was a drop in the number of letters delivered. The drop was more than made good in 1895-96. Turning to telegrams, we find a similar story. Here we are compelled to start with the year 1886-87, the first complete year after the introduction of sixpenny telegrams. In the ten years that have since elapsed the number of telegrams delivered has steadily increased from 50 millions to 79 millions.
Another test of our national prosperity is furnished by the income tax returns. When the annual value of the property and profits assessed for income tax exhibits a steady increase, it is hard to believe that our manufacturers, and all the classes that depend upon them for support, are being ruined by Germans or by anybody else. Here are the figures:—
In Millions Sterling.
Five Years’ Average.Schedule D.All Schedules.1870-742104901875-792635751880-842686011885-892926341890-94350699
The return from which the above figures are taken stops with the year 1894; but a somewhat similar comparison was brought up to date in the last Budget speech of the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The following table is taken from the “explanatory memorandum†that accompanied that speech:—
YearEndingMarch 31st.YieldperPenny.Ten Years’ Growth,after allowing for alterations inthe incidence of the tax.Amount ofGrowth.Percentage ofGrowth.Thousand£Thousand£Per Cent.18761,978——18861,980623·2318962,01220711·47
With such figures as these available it is difficult to understand how people can continue to pour forth nonsense about the ruin of our national industries. During the very decade in which the blight of German competition was supposed to have destroyed the profits of our manufacturers, it is clear from the above infallible test that the incomes of our commercial, professional, and property-owning classes have been growing with increasing rapidity.
Passing from taxation to the question of what has been done with the taxes, it is sufficient to select one fact for comment—the enormous reduction in the National Debt. Here are the figures:—
Aggregate Gross Liabilities.Per Head of Population.1876£776,000,000£23 13 91886£745,000,000£20 13 81896£652,000,000£16 13 2
That is to say, that within the past ten years—the years of alleged depression and blight—we have reduced our national indebtedness by over 90 millions sterling. During the same period it is worth while to point out that we have expended enormous sums in the almost complete reconstruction of our navy. Meanwhile Germany—the hated rival—has, since the war, added as many millions to her debt as we in ten years have taken from ours.
In case the pessimists and the Protectionists should be still unconvinced by these proofs of national prosperity, let us turn to a new series of tests, the test of consumption. The great staple commodities which we will first take (cotton, wool, and coal) are partly required for manufacturing purposes and subsequent export, and partly for home use. The word “consumption†covers both uses, and we cannot, except in the case of wool, readily ascertain to which use the greater effect is attributable. In the case of wool it so happens, as was previously pointed out, that our export trade in manufactured goods has declined. But since the total consumption of raw wool by the United Kingdom has gone on increasing, it is clear that the decline in woollen exports has been more than made good by the increased home demand, unless, indeed, it be imagined that woollen manufacturers go on weaving an endless web which nobody wears. Nor is that all, for the figures of our import trade show that in addition we are importing considerable and increasing quantities of foreign woollen manufactures. So that not only have the home consumers more than recouped the British woollen manufacturer for the decline of his export business, but so great is their purchasing power that they can, at the same time, afford to send abroad for fresh woollen stuffs to please their fancy. Here are the figures showing the consumption by the inhabitants and manufacturers of the United Kingdom of three staple articles referred to:—
Average of Five Years.Cotton (Raw)Million lbs.Wool (Raw)Million lbs.CoalMillion Tons.1870-741,1783421081875-791,2213531181880-841,4453541361885-891,4674161411890-941,590475151Year 18951,635510157
With regard to the figures for cotton in the above table, it is only necessary to remark that the British manufacturer, whether for sale abroad, or for sale at home, is clearly working up more stuff than ever before. The figures for wool have already been explained.With regard to coal, the figures necessarily include both domestic and industrial consumption; but whichever be the more important element, the totals are remarkably healthy.
An even better test of the increased spending power of the nation is furnished by the figures giving the rate of consumption of such articles of everyday use as tea, sugar, and tobacco. It will be seen from the following table how rapidly our national consumption of these staple articles has increased during the past decade—the decade of alleged ruin:—
Year ending March 31st.Lbs. consumed by every100 persons.Tea.Sugar.Tobacco.18764516,07814718864657,02814418965748,916169
It is useless to worry the reader with further figures. Evidences of the prosperity of the country are around us on every side for those to see that have eyes to see—a higher standard of dress in every class of the community; better built and better furnished houses for artisan and labourer, as well as for millionaire; new public buildings, new libraries, new hospitals; improved paving, improved water-supply, improved drainage; more newspapers, more theatres, more lavish entertainments; in a word, a higher standard of comfort or of luxury in every domain of life.
Thepreceding chapters have been mainly statistical. Their object has been to show, by producing the best evidence available, that alarmists like the author of “Made in Germany†have no real ground for their fears, that British trade is not going to the devil, but that, on the contrary, the nation as a whole is in a condition of marvellous and still rapidly-growing prosperity. If that be so, if there be no disease, then obviously is there no need for the remedy which Mr. Williams and other Protectionists are anxious to foist upon the country. But though that conclusion will be sufficiently obvious to most minds, there are among us hypochondriacal persons who never think that they are quite well, and these unfortunates will still hanker after some patent medicine to cure their imaginary ills. It is worth while, therefore, briefly to point out how utterly unsuited to our alleged ailments, even if they existed, is the remedy which the Protectionists propose.
Personally I am not a fanatical believer in Free Trade, or, for that matter, in anything else except the law of gravitation and the rules of arithmetic. I am quite willing to admit that there are circumstances under which a Protectionist tariff might be advantageous to a country. But the practical question is whether, under the present circumstances of Great Britain, Protection is likely to bring any advantage to her. In dealing with that question I will venture at the outset to deny that Protection has been any real advantage to Germany. The Protectionists are fond of arguing that the heavy import duties which Germany levies on British goods have enabled German manufacturers in the first place to secure their home market, and in the second place to build up an enormous export trade at our expense. The argument is plausible, but it suffers from one fatal defect: it isunsupported by facts. As one reads the writings and listens to the talk of Protectionists, one’s mind becomes unconsciously saturated with the notion that British trade is rapidly declining and German trade as rapidly increasing. It is upon this implied proposition that all their arguments are based; this is the primary postulate upon which rests their whole house of cards.
But what are the facts? I have looked carefully through the figures showing the progress of German trade during the last ten or fifteen years, and I can discover no difference in character from the figures which show the progress of British trade. Let the reader look for himself. He will find the figures for fifteen years set out in the following table, and a diagram to illustrate them. Let him notice that what is called theentrepôttrade, consisting of goods merely passing through the one country or the other, is in these figures excluded from the comparison. Thus “British imports†here means the total imports into the United Kingdom,minusthose goods which are subsequently re-exported; “British exports†means all articles of British production exported from the United Kingdom. The same interpretation applies to the German figures, all goods in transit through Germany one way or the other being excluded. The comparison is therefore complete. And what does it show? That, so far from Germany’s export trade increasing by leaps and bounds, while ours is steadily declining, German trade has followed, though at a lower level, the same general course as British trade. Therefore, whatever else Protection may have done for Germany, it certainly has not improved her export trade as compared with that of the United Kingdom. An even more striking demonstration of the utter hollowness of the Protectionist case can be seen when we turn from exports to imports. If Protection is to do anything for a country it must at least diminish imports from abroad while increasing exports from home. That is the whole object of Protection, the great ambition which every Protectionist statesman sets before him. Has Protection done this for Germany? Once again let the reader look for himself at the figures and the diagram. He will see that while German exports have remained stationary, German imports have very largely increased, and moreover that their increase has been relatively greater than the increase of imports into Free-Trade England.
Fifteen Years’ Imports and Exports, exclusive of Goods in Transit.In Millions Sterling.
188018811882188318841885188618871888188918901891189218931894Brit. Imports348334348362327313294303324360356373360346350Brit. Exports223234242240233213213222234249263247227218216Ger. Imports141148156163163147144156165201208208202199198Ger. Exports145149160164160143149157160158166159148155148
These figures may be illustrated diagrammatically as follows:—
British and German Trade Compared(By permission of the Proprietors of the “Daily Graphic.â€)
So far, therefore, as Germany is concerned, Protection has been, for the general ends for which it was intended, a complete failure. Is there any reason to believe that it would be more successful in Great Britain? Every consideration of common sense points the other way. What Germany had to do was to build up comparatively new industries, in face of the overwhelming competition of Great Britain. In some instances she has been successful, and in some instances it is possible that Protection may have helped her by giving particular manufacturers an advantage in their home market at the expense of the whole German nation. But in England we have no such task to undertake. Our industries are already established; our wares are already known in every quarter of the globe; it is our competition that every other manufacturing country dreads. Nor is that the only difference. In Germany and in France and in the United States it is the home market that Protectionist manufacturers and Protectionist statesmen are anxious to secure. All their efforts are directed towards preventing their own citizens from purchasing British or other foreign goods. But with us the home market is not the primary consideration. Our business is with the whole world: our customers are of every race and colour from the patient Chinaman to the restless New Englander, from the supple Bengalee to the African savage. If we can keep their custom we need have no fear of our power to satisfy the wants of our own countrymen.
It is, indeed, just because the advance of Germany in a few limited directions has scared some people into the belief that we are losing our foreign trade, that such books as Mr. Williams’s “Made in Germany†are written. The whole point of their lament is that Germany is ousting us from neutral markets. Assume that it is so—though it is not—what then? How will Protection help us to maintain the hold we are said to be losing? All that Protection can do is to make more difficult the entry of foreign goods into our own country. But what are the foreign goods that enter our country? Four-fifths at least are food or the raw materials of manufacture. In support of this statement I must refer the reader to the Custom House returns to make his own classification. After going through the figures carefully I arrive at the following rough result for 1895:—
Million £’s.Food and Drink177Raw Materials163Manufactured Goods76Total Imports416
Colonel Howard Vincent, I see, puts the total of manufactured goods at 80 millions. His figure will serve as well as mine. Either shows clearly enough the character of the great mass of our imports. On which of the two main branches, on food or on raw materials, do the Protectionists propose to levy a tax? It is a strange way of helping our manufacturers in their struggle for the markets of the world to impose additional taxation on the food of their workpeople or on the raw materials of their industry.
There remains the comparatively small amount of manufactured goods we import, representing articles which our manufacturers cannot or will not produce at all, or cannot produce so cheaply as the foreigner does. Supposing we taxed every one of these articles as it entered our ports, where would the advantage be to British manufacturers whose main ambition is to send their goods abroad? There is, it is true, just one possibility of benefit to them. It is possible that the imposition of a tax on some of these foreign manufactured articles would enable the British manufacturer so to raise his prices in the home market that he could afford to forego all profit on his sales abroad and sell to his foreign customers at or below cost price. That is the only conceivable way in which a Protective tariff could help the British manufacturer in his rivalry with his German competitors for the markets of the world. As for the cost of this topsy-turvy system of trade it is to be borne of course by that patient ass the British public. The British consumer is to be compelled to pay more dearly for certain goods in order that some other people, Japs or Chinamen, may be able to buy those goods below cost price. Here, again, I will not assert that such an apparent act of folly is not worth committing under given conditions. I can imagine a firm or a country consenting for a time to work for less than no profit in order to get a foothold in a new market. But we already have the foothold, and have already worked it for what it is worth. If now we discover that, for one reason or another, there is no more profit in it,surely our wisest policy is to try something else. Otherwise we might continue for ever to sell at a loss—individual or national—for the sole pleasure of adding to the total figures of our turnover. Even the Protectionists would hardly contend that along such lines lay national prosperity.
There is, however, another, though not entirely distinct, proposal for dealing with the alleged mischief of German competition. It is this—that we should try and persuade our Colonies and Possessions to give preferential treatment to our goods in return for a similar preference accorded by us to their goods. It would be unfair to call this scheme Protectionist in the ordinary sense of the term, for it is inspired as much by the desire to bring about a closer union of different portions of the empire as by the fear of foreign competition; but as it is with the question of foreign competition that we are here primarily concerned, we will deal first with the Protectionist side of the proposal. On this side the object aimed at is the destruction or diminution of foreign competition in our Colonial markets. Undoubtedly, were the Colonies willing to make the necessary tariff adjustments in our favour, that object could be attained and our German rivals could be excluded in part or in whole from Canada, from Australia, from India, or from the Cape. So far so good. But what would that exclusion be worth to us? In a previous article I referred to figures showing how insignificant as compared with our own is German trade with our Colonies. It is worth while to present these figures in a fuller form. They will be found in the following table:—
Average of the Three Years—1890, 1891, 1892.In Millions Sterling.
TotalImportsfrom allCountries.AmountfromUnitedKingdom.AmountfromUnitedStates.AmountfromGermany.AmountfromFrance.India8458·91·51·61·2Australasia66·628·42·61·6·3South Africa12·710·3·4·2·04North America24·69·211·2·8·5West Indies6·42·81·9·05·1Other British Possessions31·46·6·6·4·6Total225·7116·218·24·62·8
These figures are, unfortunately, two or three years behind date, and probably a later return would show that the proportion of British exports to our principal Colonies had fallen off and the German proportion somewhat increased, but this change has certainly not been sufficiently great to affect the general aspect of the table. That table shows that more than half of the total import trade of our Colonies is in our hands, and that our three principal rivals together have little more than a tenth of the whole trade. Indeed, were it not for the inevitably big trade of the United States with Canada, our three rivals together would only have about one-fifteenth of the trade of our Colonies. As for Germany in particular the table shows that the amount of the trade she has so far been able to secure is absolutely insignificant in comparison with our figures.
“But,†argue the preferentialists, “German trade with our Colonies has been growing rapidly, and may continue to grow.†Possibly it may, if our manufacturers go to sleep; but what we have here to consider is whether it is worth while to take any political action to stop the possible growth of a competing trade which at present is insignificant in amount. Remember that if such action is taken by the Colonies to please us, we shall have to pay a price for their complaisance—for their loss by the exclusion of German or any other foreign goods would be twofold. In the first place the Colonial consumer would suffer. He now buys certain German goods because they suit him best, either in quality or in price. That privilege it is proposed to take from him. His loss is therefore certain. Secondly, there is a considerable danger of injury to the Colonial producer. If the Colonies close their markets to German goods Germany may retaliate by closing her markets to Colonial goods; and Germany is, so far as the trade goes, a fair customer to the British Colonies. Here are the figures:—
Average of Three Years (1890, 1891, 1892).—In Thousands Sterling.
Imports fromGermany.Exports toGermany.India1,5565,338Australasia1,6311,106South Africa228113North America781113West Indies5285Other British Possessions351691Total4,5997,446
This table shows that the Colonial producer stands to lose as much, or more, than the Colonial consumer by cutting off trade connections with Germany. What can we offer in return? It is suggested by the advocates of preferential trade that we should offer better terms to Colonial products in our markets. But already all Colonial products, except tea and coffee, enter the United Kingdom free, therefore we can only give better terms to the Colonies by imposing a tax on those foreign products which compete with the principal Colonial products. What, then, are these competing products? With some trouble I have extracted from the Custom House returns the following list of articles in which there seems to be tangible competition between foreign countries and British Possessions:—
Principal Competing Articles Imported into the United Kingdom in 1895.Millions Sterling.
From ForeignCountries.From BritishPossessions.Animals, Living7·52·4Bacon and Hams10·1·7Butter and Cheese14·84·0Caoutchouc and Guttapercha2·91·2Copper3·91·1Corn and Flour44·05·7Dye Stuffs and Dye Woods2·32·5Fruits5·8·6Hides, Skins, and Furs3·83·6Leather4·63·5Linseed2·31·1Meat, Salt and Fresh6·94·8Oils2·91·6Rice·61·4Sugar (Unrefined)6·81·5Tallow and Stearine·42·1Wood and Timber12·44·0Wool4·622·8Coffee2·61·1Tea1·68·7Cotton (Raw)29·6·8Jute (Raw)·04·3Other Articles150·816·0Total321·295·5
It will be seen that without exception the articles in the above list belong either to the category of raw materials or to that of food. Any taxation therefore imposed upon any portion of these articles for the benefit of the Colonial producer would be a disadvantage to the British manufacturer, either by increasing the cost of his raw material or by diminishing the effective wages of his workpeople. Remembering that the main object of the British manufacturer is to keep his hold on the markets of the world, is it likely that he would ever consent to allow himself to be handicapped by such taxation? For all you can offer him in return is preferential treatment in Colonial markets, whereas more than three-quarters of the trade he wishes to retain is with foreign countries.
There is, however, an even more fundamental difficulty, which neither Colonial nor British preferentialists have yet had the courage to face. It is this:—That the Colonist and the Britisher are aiming at different ends. The Britisher wishes to expand in ever-increasing proportions his manufacturing business, and it is solely because he thinks that he may possibly get a better market for his manufactures in the Colonies than in foreign countries that he gives even momentary approval to the idea of preferential trade. But no Colonist looks forward to his country remaining for ever the dumping ground for British manufactures. He wishes, and wisely wishes, to manufacture for himself, and he has deliberately arranged his tariffs with that end. Towards realising this ambition it will advance him nothing to shut out the puny Teutonic infant and let in the British giant. In like manner, if we turn from manufactures to agriculture we find the same essential divergence of view. The Colonial producer regards England as the best market for his meat and corn and butter. But the British farmer wants none of it. If he is to be ruined by competition from abroad he would as lief that the last nail were driven into his coffin by Argentine beef as by New Zealand mutton.
These objections go to the root of the matter, and show how futile it is to hope that the Mother Country and the Colonies will ever agree on any scheme of preferential trade. But need we, therefore, sit down sorrowing? Does the dream of inter-Imperial trade, if wecome to examine it closely, really hold all the beauties that its shadowy shape suggests? Take it either way. Take the scheme either as an end in itself, or as a means to an end. As for the first hypothesis, if trade is itself an end, it matters to us nothing whether we trade with foreigners or fellow subjects; all we have to think of is the profitableness, immediate or prospective, of the trade itself. And from this point of view a growing trade with Germany is worth a good deal more than a declining trade with Australasia. But most advocates of inter-Imperial trade would not admit that their dream is an end in itself. They adopt the second of the two hypotheses just mentioned, and look upon the expansion of inter-Imperial trade as the most convenient means of drawing the Colonies closer to the Mother Country, and to one another.
With that end no one will quarrel; but how will preferential trade promote it? The preferentialists assume that mutual trade must of necessity promote the closer union of different parts of the Empire. Neither in individual life nor in national life can any fact be found to support that assumption. A man does not necessarily make a bosom friend of his baker and his butcher; he may even be at daggers drawn with his tailor. As for nations it might almost be said that there is the least love exchanged between those who exchange most goods. We are splendid customers to France; we buy French goods with open hands and ask for more, yet where is the love of France for England? Never for a moment do the French cease to gird at us and to try and thwart our national projects solely because we are doing in Egypt what they have done in Tunis and are on the way to do in Madagascar. Germany, on the other hand, is one of our best customers; yet at the beginning of this year, when there seemed to be a chance of war with Germany, a feeling of elation ran through the whole of England. One more illustration: when in December, 1895, President Cleveland’s Message aroused all decent folk on both sides the Atlantic to protest that war between the United Kingdom and the United States was impossible, was it of trade interests that all men thought, or of the tie of common blood? Or, again, did Canada pause to calculate that her best customer was her Southern neighbour, or did she for a moment weigh that fact against the loyalty she owed to the Mother Country?
The simple truth is that trade has no feelings. We all of us buy and sell to the best advantage we can, and on the whole we do wisely. It is a shrewd saying that warns men to beware of business transactions with their own kinsfolk; nor do we need a prophet to tell us that an attempt to fetter Colonial trade for our own benefit may lose us more affection than it wins us custom. After all, why worry? Our world-embracing commerce is to-day as prosperous as ever it has been. The loyalty of our Colonists no one questions. Let well alone. Our industrial success has not hitherto been dependent on favouring tariffs, nor is there the slightest evidence that old age has yet laid his hand upon our powers. As for the closer union between our Colonists and ourselves, it will hardly be promoted by asking them to sacrifice their commercial freedom to increase the profits of our manufacturers, nor by taxing our food to please their farmers. It is indeed a sign of little faith to even look for a new bond of empire in an arrangement of tariffs. The tie that binds our Colonists to us will not be found in any ledger account, nor is ink the fluid in which that greater Act of Union is writ.
Inthe foregoing pages I have been obliged more than once to accuse Mr. Williams of misrepresenting facts in order to bolster up his argument. That accusation I cannot withdraw. It has been deliberately made because the facts compelled it. Doubtless in the ordinary affairs of life Mr. Williams is not less honourable than other men, but in his zeal to establish a case, which cannot be established, he has blinded himself to the main facts of the matter with which he was dealing, and has often so quoted facts and figures as to convey an impression the reverse of the truth. Even from his own point of view this was a pity, for it throws discredit upon the whole of his work, whereas several of his statements are quite true. It is, for example, true that Germany has made great progress in the chemical and in the iron trades. It is also true that her commerce is gaining a foothold in Eastern markets once almost exclusively our own. These, and several other perfectly true statements, are to be found in Mr. Williams’s pages, and might have been edifying to exalted persons who can only discover a distorted image of the truth ten years after the main facts have been clearly seen by those common folk who are primarily concerned with them. To such individuals Mr. Williams, without his picturesque exaggerations and strange twistings of the truth, might have been really useful. As it is, he has only helped to lead them astray. Indeed, it is much to be feared that these hasty students of a big subject have by the perusal of Mr. Williams’s neatly-turned sentences and epigrammatic phrases acquired an impression which no drab-coloured statement of simple fact will ever be able to dislodge.
One ground of complaint Mr. Williams may possibly feel that he has against me—that I have so far treated his book as if it were only a Protectionist pamphlet. My excuse is that the spirit of the Protectionist breathes in almost every page he has written. Nowhere does he show the slightest grasp of the central fact that all commercemust be mutual, that exports cannot exist unless there are imports to pay for them; everywhere he speaks as if each useful commodity sent us from abroad were a net loss to the British nation, and as if the people who sent it were “robbing†us of our wealth. Nor is that all. I take his chapter dealing with the reasons “why Germany beats us,†and I find that after examining some half dozen reasons in succession and dismissing them as unimportant, he comes to Protection and exclaims, “Here at last, we are on firm ground.†Again, in his next chapter he specifies “Fair Trade†as the first of the “things that we must do to be saved.†The second is the commercial federation of the Empire. I think, therefore, that I have had good reason for concentrating my argument on these two points.
There are, however, several minor suggestions in “Made in Germany,†and I am glad to be able to express my full agreement with what Mr. Williams said about technical education, about metric weights and measures, and about the excessive conservatism of the English people. I agree with him that it is monstrous that English lads should nowadays have no chance of thoroughly learning any trade. The old system of apprenticeship is almost dead, and the modern device of technical education remains a pure farce, mainly owing to the political influence of trade unions. In the same way I agree that it is ridiculous that Great Britain should go on using a clumsy and exclusive system of weights and measures, when the rest of the world is rapidly adopting the almost ideally perfect system invented a hundred years ago by the French. This is a striking instance of the conservatism and self-conceit of the English race, of which Mr. Williams so justly complains. But in this particular case, as it happens, it is not the commercial classes who are to blame. For years Chambers of Commerce throughout the Kingdom have petitioned for the legalisation of the metric system, and yet last Session when a Bill to grant this prayer was at length introduced into the House of Commons by the Government the most audible comment from the assembled wisdom of the nation was a silly guffaw.
Let me, however, not be misunderstood. I agree with Mr. Williams that these things are desirable, but not for the reason for which he desires them. By him they are put forward as devices tohelp to stave off the impending ruin of the country. For that purpose they are not needed, for there is not the slightest real evidence that ruin is impending. On the contrary, we are progressing rapidly in trade abroad and in prosperity at home. It is solely because I believe that we are capable of making even more rapid progress, and because I realise how great is the mass of misery still to be removed, that I support Mr. Williams’s demand for technical education, for metric weights and measures, for the more careful study of foreign languages, and generally for a greater readiness to receive new ideas, and a greater promptitude to meet new wants.
One word more—Mr. Williams’s book has been defended, by himself and by others, on the ground that it is a useful warning, that the nation requires to be stirred up, and so on. Has Mr. Williams forgotten the story of the little boy who cried “Wolf! Wolf!†when there was no wolf? It is one thing to warn the country of a problematic danger in the dim future; it is another to scream in the market-place that the danger is at our doors. Mr. Williams’s book is one long scream—a literary scream, I admit, and therefore in some measure harmonious, but still a scream in the sense that there is no reason behind the noise that is made. The danger is not at our doors, our industrial glory is not departing from us, our trade is not being ruined by Germany. On the contrary, in spite of the remarkable progress of Germany in a few limited directions, the general figures show that we are fully maintaining our splendid lead, if indeed we are not actually bettering it. I cannot, therefore, admit this attempted justification of the character of Mr. Williams’s book. To quoteMr. Punch’sadmirable picture, Mr. Williams, like his pupil Lord Rosebery, has been trying to make our flesh creep. There is more harm than humour in such a pastime. That the motives of both these disturbers of our nerves were patriotic I do not for a moment doubt; but their conduct is neither patriotic nor wise. It does us no manner of good to be for ever cheapening ourselves in the eyes of the world. A great nation should have dignity enough to be silent about her own greatness, neither on the one hand perpetually boasting of her pre-eminent virtue, nor on the other fretfully asking how her credit stands with other countries. We are what we are—what our forefathers and our own brains and arms have made us. Let us be content to possess our souls in peace, and to get on with our work.
MR. WILLIAMS’S REPLY.[3]
To the Editor of the “Daily Graphic.â€
Sir,—The first reflection arising from a perusal of your correspondent’s criticism of “Made in Germany†is that perhaps it is as well that he and I are English and not French journalists. Across the Channel disagreeable formalities sometimes ensue when one writer takes to dealing in such expressions as “artfully picked out,†“trickery,†“gross exaggeration and suppression,†“misrepresentations,†“exaggerations—to use the mildest possible term,†“grossest exaggeration,†“skilfully conveyed a false impression,†“twisting the truth,†and others of like offensiveness. As they are a direct impeachment of my honour as a man, apart from my ability as an economist, I am compelled to preface my defence with a protest. The adoption of this style is a pity, too, in that it was wholly unnecessary. My antagonist was not in the position of the proverbially abusive lawyer; he had a case to state; and, apart from personalities and some other faults to be mentioned later, I sincerely congratulate him on the ability with which he has stated that case. Of course no one will mistake my meaning. By admitting that my opponent has a case I am not confessing defeat; I am simply testifying to the general truth of the saying that there are two sides to every question, albeit one side is the right one.