The Project Gutenberg eBook ofConsanguineous Marriages in the American PopulationThis ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this ebook or online atwww.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this eBook.Title: Consanguineous Marriages in the American PopulationAuthor: George B. Louis ArnerRelease date: July 20, 2004 [eBook #12955]Most recently updated: October 28, 2024Language: EnglishCredits: Produced by David Starner, Asad Razzakiand the Online Distributed Proofreading Team*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES IN THE AMERICAN POPULATION ***
This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this ebook or online atwww.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this eBook.
Title: Consanguineous Marriages in the American PopulationAuthor: George B. Louis ArnerRelease date: July 20, 2004 [eBook #12955]Most recently updated: October 28, 2024Language: EnglishCredits: Produced by David Starner, Asad Razzakiand the Online Distributed Proofreading Team
Title: Consanguineous Marriages in the American Population
Author: George B. Louis Arner
Author: George B. Louis Arner
Release date: July 20, 2004 [eBook #12955]Most recently updated: October 28, 2024
Language: English
Credits: Produced by David Starner, Asad Razzakiand the Online Distributed Proofreading Team
*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES IN THE AMERICAN POPULATION ***
[Volume XXXI] [Number 3]
This monograph does not claim to treat exhaustively, nor to offer a final solution of all the problems which have been connected with the marriage of kin. The time has not yet come for a final work on the subject, for the systematic collection of the necessary statistics, which can only be done by governmental authority, has never been attempted. The statistics which have been gathered, and which are presented in the following pages, are fragmentary, and usually bear upon single phases of the subject, but taken together they enable us better to understand many points which have long been in dispute.
The need for statistics of the frequency of occurrence of consanguineous marriages has been strongly felt by many far-sighted men. G.H. Darwin and A.H. Huth have tried unsuccessfully to have the subject investigated by the British Census, and Dr. A.G. Bell has recently urged that the United States Census make such an investigation.[1]Another motive for undertaking this present work, aside from the desire to study the problems already referred to, has been to test the widely prevalent theory that consanguinity is a factor in the determination of sex, the sole basis of which seems to be the Prussian birth statistics of Düsing, which are open to other interpretations.
The stock illustrations from isolated communities have been omitted as too difficult to verify, and little space hasbeen given to the results of the inbreeding of domestic animals, for although such results are of great value to Biology, they are not necessarily applicable to the human race.
The writer regrets that it is impossible here to acknowledge all his obligations to those who have assisted him in the preparation of this work. Such acknowledgement is due to the many genealogists and other friends who have kindly furnished detailed cases of consanguineous marriage. For more general data the writer is especially indebted to Dr. Alexander Graham Bell, to Dr. Martin W. Barr, to Professor William H. Brewer of Yale University, and to Dr. Lee W. Dean of the University of Iowa. In the preparation of the manuscript the suggestions and criticisms of Professors Franklin H. Giddings and Henry L. Moore have been invaluable.
G.B.L.A.
MARCH, 1908.
PREFACE
CONTENTS
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
Problems to be Treated—Degrees of Consanguinity—Literature of the Subject—Noah Webster—Bemiss—Dally—G.H. Darwin—Huth—Bell—Legal Status in the United States—Methods of Investigation—Genealogical—Personal—Isolated Communities
CHAPTER II
RATIO OF THE CONSANGUINEOUS TO ALL MARRIAGES
Previous Estimates—Mayo-Smith—Mulhall—Darwin—Application of Darwin's Method to American Data—Direct Method—Consanguineal Attraction—Same-name and Different-name Cousin Marriages—Summary
CHAPTER III
MASCULINITY
Constancy of the Sex-ratio—Consanguinity and Masculinity—Theory of Westermarck and Thomas—Duesing—Gache—Negroes in the United States—Genealogical Material—Other Compilations—Summary
CHAPTER IV
CONSANGUINITY AND REPRODUCTION
Theories of the Effect of Consanguinity upon Offspring—Comparative Fertility—Statistics from Darwin and Bemiss—Genealogical Statistics—Youthful Death-rate—Degeneracy—Fallacies in the Work of Bemiss—Isolated Communities—The Jukes—Other Degenerate Families—Scrofula
CHAPTER V
CONSANGUINITY AND MENTAL DEFECT
Idiocy and Insanity—Inheritability of Mental Defect—Intensified Heredity—Barr's Investigations—Other American and English Data—Mayet's Prussian Statistics—Genealogical Data
CHAPTER VI
CONSANGUINITY AND THE SPECIAL SENSES
United States Census Data—The Blind—Consanguinity of Parents—Blind Relatives—Degree of Blindness—Causes of Blindness—Retinitis Pigmentosa—European Data—Probability of Blind Offspring of Consanguineous Marriages—The Deaf—Irish Census—Scotland and Norway—United States Census—Consanguinity of Parents—Deaf Relatives—Causes of Deafness—Degree of Deafness—Direct Inheritance of Deafness—Intensification through Consanguinity—Dr. Fay's Statistics—Personal Data—Probability of Deaf Offspring from Consanguineous Marriages—Opinion of Dr. Bell
CHAPTER VII
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
Summary of Results—Inbreeding and Evolution—Effects of Close Inbreeding—Crossing and Variation—"Difference of Potential"—Resemblance and Intensification—Coefficient of Correlation between Husband and Wife—Between Cousins—Between Brothers and Sisters—Consanguinity and Eugenics—Consanguinity and Social Evolution—Conclusion
BIBLIOGRAPHY.
GENEALOGIES CONSULTED.
FOOTNOTES
The purpose of this essay is to present in a concise form and without bias or prejudice, the most important facts in regard to consanguineous marriages, their effects upon society, and more particularly their bearing upon American social evolution. The problems to be considered are not only those which relate primarily to the individual and secondarily to the race, such as the supposed effect of blood relationship in the parents upon the health and condition of the offspring; but also the effect, if any, which such marriages have upon the birth-rate, upon the proportion of the sexes at birth, and the most fundamental problem of all, the relative frequency with which consanguineous marriages take place in a given community.
No thorough and systematic study of the subject has ever been made, and could not be made except through the agency of the census. The statistical material here brought together is fragmentary and not entirely satisfactory, but it is sufficient upon which to base some generalizations of scientific value. The sources of these data are largely American. Little attempt is made to study European material, or to discuss phases of the problem which are only of local concern. Some topics, therefore, which have frequently been treated in connection with the general subject of consanguineous marriages are here ignored as having no scientific interest, as for instance that of the so-called "marriages of affinity," which has been so warmly debated for the past fifty years in the British Parliament.
For obvious reasons it will often be impossible to distinguish between the different degrees of consanguinity, but wherever possible the degree will be specified. It is probable that where a number of marriages are vaguely given as consanguineous, few are more distant than second cousins, for in the United States especially, distant relationships are rarely traced except by genealogists. In designating degrees of relationship the common terminology will be used, as in the following table, expressing, however, the rather clumsy expression, "first cousin once removed" by the simpler form "1-1/2 cousin."
By far the greater part of the literature of consanguineous marriage is of a controversial rather than of a scientific nature, and a search for statistical evidence for either side of the discussion reveals surprisingly little that is worthy of the name. Yet men of high scientific standing have repeatedly made most dogmatic assertions in regard to the results of such unions, and have apparently assumed that no proof was necessary. For example, Sir Henry Sumner Maine "cannot see why the men who discovered the use of fire, and selected the wild forms of certain animals for domestication and of vegetables for cultivation, should not find out that children of unsound constitution were born of nearly related parents."[2]
Much space is given to the alleged "innate horror of incest," and frequent appeals are made to Scripture, wrongly assuming that the marriage of cousins is prohibited in the Mosaic Law.
The origin of "prohibited degrees" is only conjectural. The Christian Church apparently borrowed its prohibitory canons from the Roman Law,[3]and a dispensation is still necessary before a Catholic can marry his first cousin. However, such dispensations have always been easy to obtain, especially by royal families, and even the marriage of uncle and niece sometimes occurs, as among the Spanish Habsburgs, and as recently as 1889 in the House of Savoy.
The prohibition of the marriage of first cousins was removed in England by the Marriage Act of 1540,[4]but by this time the idea of the harmfulness of kinship marriage was so thoroughly impressed upon the people that they were very prone to look askance at such unions, and if they were followed by any defective progeny, the fact would be noted, and looked upon as a chastisement visited upon the parents for their sin. Naturally the idea became proverbial, and in some places it has influenced the civil law.
Perhaps the first printed discussion of the subject in America is from the pen of Noah Webster, in an essay which should be as interesting to the spelling reformer as to the sociologist.[5]He writes: "It iz no crime for brothers and sisters to intermarry, except the fatal consequences to society; for were it generally practised, men would become a race of pigmies. It iz no crime for brothers' and sisters'children to intermarry, and this iz often practised; but such near blood connections often produce imperfect children. The common peeple hav hence drawn an argument to proov such connections criminal; considering weakness, sickness and deformity in the offspring az judgements upon the parents. Superstition iz often awake when reezon iz asleep."
From about 1855 to 1880 much was written about the effect of consanguineal interbreeding. One of the first contributions came from America. In 1858 Dr. S.M. Bemiss, of Louisville, Kentucky, reported to the American Medical Association the results of his investigation of 833 cases of consanguineous marriage.[6]His compilation remains to this day the largest single piece of direct statistical work on the subject. Unfortunately, however, his statistics have a strong, if unintentional, bias which seriously affects their value. In France one of the earliest discussions was by M. Boudin,[7]who evidently obtained the Bemiss report (attributing it to Dr. O.W. Morris, who had quoted freely from Bemiss),[8]and enlarged greatly upon its fallacies. He also collected statistics of the deaf-mutes in Paris, and, by an amazing manipulation of figures, "demonstrated" that consanguinity of the parents was the cause of nearly one-third of the cases of congenital deafness. The savants of the Société d'Anthropologie took sides and the debate became very entertaining. Finally M. Dally came to the rescue, and published some very sane and logical articles which avoided both extremes, and first advancedthe theory that any ill effects of consanguineous marriage should be attributed to the intensification of inherited characteristics.[9]
In England similar discussions took place during the same period, complicated, however, by the presence of the patient and long-suffering "deceased wife's sister." The best of the English work has been the statistical study by George H. Darwin,[10]and the classic "Marriage of Near Kin" by Alfred H. Huth, a book of 475 pages, including a very complete bibliography to the date of the second edition, 1885. Although Mr. Huth's book is not free from error, and is encumbered with a large amount of worthless material, it is now after thirty-three years, by far the best treatment of the subject.
In Italy Dr. Montegazza,[11]in Spain Señor Pastor[12]and others, have made useful contributions. German writers have usually preferred more general subjects, but many of them have given much space to consanguineous marriage in sociological and biological works.
Since the appearance of the Bemiss report little has been published in this country which bears directly upon our subject. The most important American contribution, however, is to be found in the Special Report on the Blind and the Deaf, in the Twelfth Census of the United States, prepared by Dr. Alexander Graham Bell. Although American writers have had little part in the theoretical discussions, ourlegislators have been active, so that the statutes of every state specify degrees of kinship within which marriage is prohibited. In at least sixteen states the prohibition is extended to include first cousins. In New Hampshire such marriages are void and the children are illegitimate. Other states in which first-cousin marriage is forbidden are Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Since both Oklahoma and Indian Territory had similar laws, the present State of Oklahoma should probably be added to this list. In all of these states marriages within the prohibited degrees are incestuous or void or both, except in Ohio, where no express declaration is made in the statute. In Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Washington the law is made to read: "and not nearer of kin thansecond cousins," therefore including "1-1/2 cousins" within the prohibited degrees. In many states the marriage of step relatives is forbidden, as also marriage with a mother-in-law or father-in-law. Of the territories, Arizona, Alaska, and Porto Rico forbid the marriage of first cousins, but in Porto Rico the court may waive the impediment.
These laws probably have some effect in reducing the number of consanguineous marriages in these states, but the sentiment back of the law is more responsible for the decrease in the number of such unions than the law itself. For in the nature of things enforcement would be very difficult, and apparently little real effort is made in that direction. In Ohio, and probably elsewhere, the question as to consanguinity is not directly put to the applicants for a marriage license. The applicants are required to answer theusual questions in regard to age, parentage, residence, etc., and are then required to swear that their previous statements have been correct and that neither of them is "epileptic, imbecile or insane," that they are "not nearer of kin than second cousins, and not at the time under the influence of any intoxicating liquor or narcotic drug." Undoubtedly violations of the consanguinity clause are very frequent, and it is likewise easily evaded by going to another state where the laws are more liberal. One effect of the law is to provide a painless method of severing the marriage bond. A correspondent, who is a District Court Judge in Kansas, in reporting a case of first cousin marriage, adds that he "divorced them on the ground of consanguinity."
In the absence of direct investigation by the Census Bureau, or other public records of consanguineous marriages, perhaps the most promising field for research is in the genealogical records of American families. Several thousand volumes of such material have been published within the last half-century, and a large number of these are very carefully and scientifically prepared. The material gathered from such sources is very accurate in regard to the number of births, youthful deathrate etc., but mental or physical defects are rarely mentioned. The greatest objection to the utilization of this material, however, is the amount of labor necessary in order to glean the desired facts from the mass of irrelevant data. For example, in order to find one case of first cousin marriage it is necessary on an average, to examine the records of nearly two hundred other marriages.
The collection of data from personal sources is likewise open to grave objections. Not only is the informant likely to be biassed, but the cases which he will remember will be those in which something unusual has occurred. Herein lay the fallacy in the conclusions of Dr. Bemiss. I haveendeavored to overcome this bias by restricting my requests for information to genealogists and others who would more naturally appeal to records, but my efforts have been only partially successful.
The number of cases of consanguineous marriage, embracing all degrees of consanguinity, which I have collected from these two sources, genealogies and correspondence, is 723, a number too small in itself to establish any definite conclusions; but by using this material in connection with other related data, I trust I may be able to add something to the comparatively small amount of real knowledge which the world already possesses in regard to the marriage of kin.
In the course of my investigations I visited Smith's Island, in the Chesapeake Bay, about twelve miles across Tangier Sound, from Crisfield, Maryland, and nearly opposite the mouth of the Potomac. Here is a community of about seven hundred people, who are principally engaged in the sea-food industry. Their ancestors have lived on the island for many generations and there have been comparatively few accessions to the population from the mainland. As a natural consequence the population is largely a genetic aggregation. Consanguineous marriages have been very frequent, until now nearly all are more or less interrelated. Out of a hundred or more families of which I obtained some record, at least five marriages were between first cousins. All of these were fertile, and all the children were living and apparently healthy. Since over thirty per cent of the inhabitants bear one surname (Evans), and those bearing the first four surnames in point of frequency (Evans, Brad-shaw, Marsh, and Tyler) comprise about fifty-nine per cent of the population, it will readily be seen that comparatively few absolutely non-related marriages take place. Yet in this community from September, 1904, to October, 1907, or during the residence there of the present physician, Dr.P.H. Tawes, there have been 87 births and but 30 deaths, the latter from the usual causes. During this period there has not been a single case of idiocy, insanity, epilepsy, deaf-mutism or even of typhoid fever on the island.
The evidence gathered from various other isolated communities is very conflicting. Huth describes a great many of them which have existed for many generations without crosses without ill results. Other writers quote instances where whole communities have become degenerate. Until the antecedents of a community are known it is of course impossible to estimate the effect of consanguinity. The exceptionally high percentage of deaf-mutism on Martha's Vineyard may to some extent be due to a high percentage of consanguineous marriage, but that inbreeding is not the primary cause is revealed by the records showing that among the first settlers were two deaf-mutes, whose defect has been inherited from generation to generation for two hundred and fifty years.[13]
Towards determining the average frequency of occurrence of consanguineous marriages, or the proportion which such marriages bear to the whole number of marriages, little has as yet been done in this country. Professor Richmond Mayo-Smith estimated that marriages between near kin constituted less than one per cent of the total,[14]and Dr. Lee W. Dean estimates that in Iowa they comprise only about one half of one per cent.[15]But these estimates are little more than guesses, without any statistical basis.
In several European countries such marriages have been registered, though somewhat spasmodically and inaccurately. According to Mulhall[16]the ratio of the consanguineous among 10,000 marriages in the various countries is as follows:
According to Uchermann the ratio is 690 or 6.9 per cent, including marriages between second cousins and nearer.[17]Dr. Peer says that 4 per cent of the marriages in Saxonyare consanguineous.[18]The ratio seems to be increasing in France but diminishing in Alsace and Italy, as indicated in Table II.[19]
In Italy the ratio varies greatly in different parts of the country. Mulhall gives the following figures for the years 1872-75:
It will be noted that the lowest ratios are in provinces where the urban population is comparatively large. Wherever statistics have been gathered it is the rule that the percentage of consanguineous marriage is greater in rural than in urban districts. Table IV, also from Mulhall, illustrates this point.
In regard to the degree of consanguinity, it seems very probable that in the French, German, Italian, and English statistics and estimates few if any marriages beyond the degree of first cousins are returned as consanguineous, so in order to compare the Norwegian figures with the others they should probably be reduced by one half. Out of 1549 consanguineous marriages contracted in Prussia in 1889, 1422 were between "cousins" (probably first), 110 between uncles and nieces, and 16 between nephews and aunts.[20]The ratio of such marriages to 10,000 in France during the fifteen years ending in 1875 was:[21]
In Italy during seven years ending in 1874, of all consanguineous marriages 92 per cent were of cousins and 8 per cent were of uncle and niece or aunt and nephew.[22]
Dally[23]is very skeptical about the accuracy of the French figures, but says that in Paris the records are well kept. He found that in the years 1853-62 there were 10,765 marriages in the8me arrondissementof Paris, and of these he finds:
This is rather higher than the average for urban districts, according to official figures, but Dally seems to consider it as typical. He gives examples of the carelessness and incompetency of the rural record keepers, and insists that the percentage is really much higher than the official figures would indicate. He estimates the consanguineous marriages in France not including second cousins, at from four to five per cent.
A very ingenious method of determining the approximate number of first-cousin marriages was devised by Mr. George H. Darwin.[24]Noticing that in marriage announcements, some were between persons of the same surname, it occurred to him that there might be a constant ratio between same-name marriages and first cousin marriages. Some same-name marriages would of course be purely adventitious; so, to eliminate this element of chance, he obtained from the Registrar General's Report the frequency of occurrence of the various surnames in England. The fifty commonest names embraced 18 per cent of the population. One person in every 73 was a Smith, one in every 76 a Jones and so on. Then the probability of a Smith-Smith marriage due to mere chance would be 1/732and of a Jones-Jones marriage 1/762. The sum of fifty such fractions he found to be .0009207 or .9207 per thousand. After the fiftieth name the fractions were so small as to have comparatively little effect upon the total. He therefore concluded that about one marriage in a thousand takes place, in which the parties have the same surname and have been uninfluenced by any relationship between them bringing them together.
The next step was to count the marriages announced in the "Pall Mall Gazette" for the years 1869-72 and a partof 1873. Of the 18,528 marriages there found, 232 or 1.25 per cent were between persons of the same surname. Deducting the percentage of chance marriages at least 1.15 per cent were probably influenced directly or indirectly by consanguinity.
Mr. Darwin then proceeded by a purely genealogical method. He found that out of 9,549 marriages recorded in "Burke'sLanded Gentry," 144 or 1.5 per cent were between persons of the same surname, and exactly half of these were first cousins. In the "English and Irish Peerage" out of 1,989 marriages, 18 or .91 per cent were same-name first cousin marriages. He then sent out about 800 circulars to members of the upper middle class, asking for records of first cousin marriage among the near relatives of the person addressed, and obtained the following result:
These cases furnished by correspondents he calculated to be 3.41 per cent of all marriages in the families to which circulars were sent.
From the data collected from all these sources Mr. Darwin obtains the following proportion:
He is inclined to think that the ratio should be lower and perhaps .50 instead of .57. By a similar line of reasoning he obtains this proportion:
Here too, he fears that the denominator is too small, for by theoretical calculation he obtains by one method the ratio2/7, and by another 1/1. He finally takes 1/4 for this factor. To express the proportion in another form:
The completed formula then becomes:
Applying this formula to the English statistics, Mr. Darwin computes the percentages of first cousin marriages in England with the following results:
In order to apply this formula to the American population I counted the names in the New York Marriage License Record previous to 1784,[25]and found the number to be 20,396, representing 10,198 marriages. The fifty commonest names embraced nearly 15 per cent of the whole (1526), or three per cent less than the number found by Darwin.[26]Of these, one in every 53 was a Smith, one in 192 a Lawrence, and so on. The sum of the fraction 1/532, 1/1922, etc., I found to be .000757 or .757 per thousand, showing that the probability of a chance marriage between persons of the same name was even less than in England, where Mr. Darwin considered it almost a negligible quantity.
Of these 10,198 marriages, 211, or 2.07 per cent were between persons bearing the same surname. Applying Darwin's formula we would have 5.9 as the percentage of firstcousin marriages in colonial New York. This figure is evidently much too high, so in the hope of finding the fallacy, I worked out the formula entirely from American data. To avoid the personal equation which would tend to increase the number of same-name first cousin marriages at the expense of the same-name not first cousin marriages, I took only those marriages obtained from genealogies, which would be absolutely unbiassed in this respect. Out of 242 marriages between persons of the same name, 70 were between first cousins, giving the proportion:
as compared with Darwin's .57. So that we may be fairly safe in assuming that not more than 1/3 of all same-name marriages are first cousin marriages. Taking data from the same sources and eliminating as far as possible those genealogies in which only the male line is traced, we have it:
This is near the ratio which Darwin obtained from his data, and which he finally changed to 1/4. I am inclined to think that his first ratio was nearer the truth, for since we have found that the coefficient of attraction between cousins would be so much greater than between non-relatives, why should we not assume that the attraction between cousins of the same surname should exceed that between cousins of different surnames? For among a large number of cousins a person is likely to be thrown into closer contact, and to feel better acquainted with those who bear the same surname with himself. But since the theoretical ratio would be about 1/4 it would hardly be safe to put the probable ratio higher than 1/3, or in other words four first cousin marriagesto every same-name first cousin marriage. Our revised formula then is:
Instead of Mr. Darwin's .35.
Taking then the 10,198 marriages, with their 2.07 per dent of same-name marriages, and dividing by .75 we have 2.76 per cent, or 281 first cousin marriages.
In order to arrive at approximately the percentage of first cousin marriages in a nineteenth-century American community I counted the marriage licenses in Ashtabula County, Ohio, for seventy-five years, (1811-1886). Out of 13,309 marriages, 112 or .84 per cent were between persons of the same surname. Applying the same formula as before, we find 1.12 per cent of first cousin marriages, or less than half the percentage found in eighteenth-century New York. This difference may easily be accounted for by the comparative newness of the Ohio community, in which few families would be interrelated, and also to that increasing ease of communication which enables the individual to have a wider circle of acquaintance from which to choose a spouse.
Adopting a more direct method of determining the frequency of cousin marriage, I estimated in each of sixteen genealogical works, the number of marriages recorded, and found the total to be 25,200. From these sixteen families I obtained 153 cases of first cousin marriage, or .6 per cent. Allowing for the possible cases of cousin marriage in which the relationship was not given, or which I may have over-looked, the true percentage is probably not far below the 1.12 per cent obtained by the other method.
The compiler of the, as yet, unpublished Loomis genealogy writes me that he has the records of 7500 marriages inthat family, of which 57 or .8 per cent are same-name marriages. This would indicate that 1.07 per cent were between first cousins.
In isolated communities, on islands, among the mountains, families still remain in the same locality for generations, and people are born, marry and die with the same environment. Their circle of acquaintance is very limited, and cousin marriage is therefore more frequent. If we exclude such places, and consider only the more progressive American communities, it is entirely possible that the proportion of first cousin marriages would fall almost if not quite to .5 per cent. So that the estimate of Dr. Dean for Iowa may not be far out of the way.
Even for England Mr. Darwin's figures are probably much too large. Applying the corrected formula his table becomes:
In regard to the frequency of marriage between kin more distant than first cousins figures are still more difficult to obtain. The distribution of 514 cases of consanguineous marriage from genealogies was as follows:
Obviously this cannot be taken as typical of the actual distribution of consanguineous marriages, since the more distant the degree, the more difficult it is to determine the relationship. However it is very evident that the coefficient of attraction is at its maximum between first cousins, and probably there are actually more marriages between first cousins than between those of any other recognized degree of consanguinity. But the two degrees of 1-1/2 cousins and second cousins taken together probably number more intermarriages than first cousins alone. Allowing four children to a family, three of whom marry and have families, the actual number of cousins a person would have on each degree would be: First, 16; 1-1/2, 80; Second, 96; 2-1/2, 480; Third, 576; Fourth, 3,456. The matter is usually complicated by double relationships, but it will readily be seen that the consanguineal attraction would hardly be perceptible beyond the degree of third cousins.[27]
Omitting, as in the discussion on page 24, those genealogies in which only the male line is given we have the following table:
It would naturally be supposed that with each succeeding degree of relationship the ratio of same-name to different-name cousin marriages would increase in geometrical proportion, viz. first cousins, 1:3; second cousins, 1:9; third cousins, 1:27, etc., but on the other hand there is the tendency for families of the same name to hold together evenin migration as may be proved by the strong predominance of certain surnames in nearly every community. So that the ratio or same-name to different-name second cousin marriage may not greatly exceed 1:4. Beyond this degree any estimate would be pure guesswork. However the coefficient of attraction between persons of the same surname would undoubtedly be well marked in every degree of kinship, and conversely there are few same-name marriages in which some kinship, however remote, does not exist.
The proportion of mixed generation cousin marriages (1-1/2 cousins, 2-1/2 cousins, etc.) is always smaller than the even generation marriages of either the next nearer or more remote degrees. For example, a man is more likely to marry his first or his second cousin than either the daughter of his first cousin, or the first cousin of one of his parents, although such mixed generation marriages often take place.
The conclusions, then, in regard to the frequency of consanguineous marriage in the United States may be summarized as follows:
1. The frequency varies greatly in different communities, from perhaps .5 per cent of first cousin marriages in the northern and western states to 5 per cent, and probably higher, in isolated mountain or island communities. The average of first cousin marriage in the United States is probably not greater than one per cent.
2. The percentage of consanguineous marriages is decreasing with the increasing ease of communication and is probably less than half as great now as in the days of the stage coach.
3. Although the number of marriageable second cousins is usually several times as great as that of first cousins, the number of marriages between second cousins is probably somewhat less than the number of marriages between first cousins, but the number of second cousin marriages combinedwith the number of 1-1/2 cousin marriages probably exceeds the number of first cousin marriages alone. So that the percentage of marriages ordinarily considered consanguineous is probably between two, and two and a half.