Proofsthat the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz.—
I know but three ways of finding the same.
1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.
2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of those that live, to those that die.
3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, in proportion to those that escape.
To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz.—
1. The number of houses which were burntA.D.1666, which by authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I findA.D.1686, to be but one seventh part, butA.D.1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole housing of LondonA.D.1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burialsA.D.1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housingA.D.1686.
2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, whereforeA.D.1686, or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in forty years) so as the whole,A.D.1686 might be 92,400.
3. I found thatA.D.1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.
Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.
Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.
As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation in page — of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s families there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.
To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.
I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were 23,202, andA.D.1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and thoseA.D.1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 souls.
Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say—
1. That Grant in the — page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same proportion.
2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years each.
3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30.
4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.
It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague, butA.D.1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above mentioned.
Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in its place.
Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and government.
Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of Christendom undernamed, viz.:—
1.Wehave by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that city to be at a medium 695,718.
2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., 81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families.
3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.
4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks.
5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur Auzout.
6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.
7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give 69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.
8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout’s fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it.
Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.
All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned.
London
696,000
Paris
488,000
Amsterdam
187,000
Venice
134,000
Rome
125,000
Dublin
69,000
Bristol
48,000
Rouen
66,000
1. That the people of
Paris being
488,000
Rome
125,000
Rouen
66,000
do make in all but
679,000
or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.
2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums—viz., of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000—do make 744,000, or more than
In Paris
488,000
Amsterdam
187,090
Rouen
66,000
Being in all
741,000
3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent
To Paris, which hath
488,000 souls.
Rouen
66,000
Lyons
100,000
Toulouse
90,000
In all
744,000
If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at work upon that matter.
4. That the King of England’s three cities, viz.:
King’s Cities
Exceed
London
696,000
Paris
488,000
Dublin
69,000
Amsterdam
187,000
Bristol
48,000
Venice
134,000
In all
813,000
Being but
809,000
5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 to 4.
Amsterdam
187,000
Venice
134,000
Rouen
66,000
387,000
× 2
774,000
London 696,000
6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.
When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.
Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.
Sincethe close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath—as we have elsewhere noted—187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and market-towns.
Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in each—the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings—the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned—the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland.
Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the world, I never found that in any country—not in China itself—there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (aliasNorth Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set forthA.D.1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to be but 85,000.
The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith—
1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:—
1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000.
2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.
I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.
To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they would prove—
1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.
2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the Second came to the empire thereof.
Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King,Lancaster Herald,and forming part of“An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade.”Published in 1699.
Thewriter of these papers has seen the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any other person.
With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.
He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.
From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase—
That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth about 400,000.
That at the Norman Conquest,A.D.1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000.
ThatA.D.1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.
That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head.
That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:—
Anno Domini.
Number of people.
Increase every hundred years.
1300
2,800,000
1400
3,300,000
440,000.
1500
3,840,000
540,000.
1600
4,620,000
780,000.
1700
5,500,000
880,000.
1800
6,420,000
920,000.
1900
7,350,000
930,000.
2000
8,280,000
930,000.
2100
9,205,000
925,000.
2200
10,115,000
910,000.
2300
11,000,000
885,000.
Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls per annum.
But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or
190,000 souls.
And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or
170,000 souls.
Whereby the yearly increase would be
20,000 souls.
It is to be noted—
Per ann.
1.
That the allowance for plagues and great mortalities may come to at a medium
4,000
2.
Foreign or civil wars at a medium
3,500
3.
The sea constantly employing about 40,000, may precipitate the death of about
2,500
4.
The plantations (over and above the accession of foreigners) may carry away
1,000
11,000 per annum.
Whereby the net annual increase may be but
9,000 souls.
That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements.
The country increases annually by procreation
20,000 souls.
The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by procreation
2,000 souls.
But London and the bills of mortality decrease annually
2,000 souls.
So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s net increase.
Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to the following scheme
Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 children.
Whereby it follows—
1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more prolific than the country.
2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in people much fasterpro ratathan the country.
3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children than the country marriages seem to be—
(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.
(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.
(3) From a greater intentness on business.
(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.
(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.
(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.
He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:—
People.
Annual Marriages. In all.
Producing children each
530,000
London and bills of mortality
1 in 106
5,000
4.0
870,000
The cities and market towns
1 in 128
6,800
4.5
4,100,000
The villages and hamlets
1 in 141
29,200
4.8
5,500,000
1 in 134
41,000
4.64
Annual Births.
Annual Burials.
In all.
In all.
London and bills of mortality
1 in 26½
20,000
1 in 24.1
22,000
The cities and market towns
1 in 28½
30,600
1 in 30.4
28,600
The villages and hamlets
1 in 29.4
29,200
1 in 34.4
119,400
1 in 28.95
190,000
1 in 32.35
170,000
So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.
Males. Females.
Males.
Females.
Both.
In London and bills of mortality
10 to 13
230,000
300,000
530,000
In the other cities and market-towns
8 to 9
410,000
460,000
870,000
In the villages and hamlets
100 to 99
2,060,000
2,040,000
4,100,000
27 to 28
2,700,000
2,800,000
5,500,000
That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to bear these proportions.
People.
Males.
Females.
Husbands and wives at above
34½%
1,900,000
950,000
950,000
Widowers at above
1½%
90,000
90,000
Widows at about
4½%
240,000
240,000
Children at above
45%
2,500,000
1,300,000
1,200,000
Servants at about
10½%
560,000
260,000
300,000
Sojourners and single persons
4%
210,000
100,000
110,000
100%
5,500,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
And that the different proportions in each of the said articles between London,the great towns,and the villages,may the better appear,he has formed the following scheme:—
London and Bills of Mortality. Souls.
The other Cities and great Towns. Souls.
The Villages and Hamlets. Souls.
Husbands and Wives
37%
196,100
36%
313,200
34%
1,394,000
Widowers
2%
10,600
2%
17,400
1½%
61,500
Widows
7%
37,100
6%
52,200
4½%
184,500
Children
33%
174,900
40%
348,000
47%
1,927,000
Servants
13%
68,900
11%
95,700
10%
410,000
Sojourners
8%
42,400
5%
43,500
3%
123,000
100%
530,000
100%
870,000
100%
4,100,000
He further observes,supposing the people to be 5,500,000,that the yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000,and that the several ages of the people may be as follows:
In all.
Males.
Females.
Those under 1 years old
170,000
88,500
81,500
Those under 5 years old
820,000
413,300
406,700
Those under 10 years old
1,520,000
762,900
757,100
Those above 16 years old
3,260,000
1,578,000
1,682,000
Those above 21 years old
2,700,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
Those above 25 years old
2,400,000
1,152,000
1,248,000
Those above 60 years old
600,000
270,000
330,000
Those under 16 years old
2,240,000
Those above 16 years old
3,260,000
Total of the people
5,500,000
That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof those under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above twenty-five years are 2½ per cent.
That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole.
Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent.
And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.
That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with another, 27 years and a half.
That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.
That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are as follows, viz.:—
Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for the year 1688.
At a Medium
The husbands are aged
43 years apiece, which, at
17¼ per cent., makes
742 years.
The wives
40
17¼
690
The widowers
56
1½
84
The widows
60
4½
270
The children
12
45
540
The servants
27
10½
284
The sojourners
35
4
140
At a medium
27½
100
2,750
Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.
What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing the inhabitants of England to have been,A.D.1300, 2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may probably be aboutA.D.1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they wereA.D.1300 either less or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.
Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though the text deserves much a better comment.
Number of Families.
Ranks,Degrees,Titles,and Qualifications.
Heads per Family.
160
Temporal Lords
40
26
Spiritual Lords
20
800
Baronets
16
600
Knights
13
3,000
Esquires
10
12,000
Gentlemen
8
5,000
Persons in greater offices and places
8
5,000
Persons in lesser offices and places
6
2,000
Eminent merchants and traders by sea
8
8,000
Lesser merchants and traders by sea
6
10,000
Persons in the law
7
2,000
Eminent clergymen
6
8,000
Lesser clergymen
5
40,000
Freeholders of the better sort
7
120,000
Freeholders of the lesser sort
5½
150,000
Farmers
5
15,000
Persons in liberal arts and sciences
5
50,000
Shopkeepers and tradesmen
4½
60,000
Artisans and handicrafts
4
5,000
Naval officers
4
4,000
Military officers
4
500,586
5⅓
50,000
Common seamen
3
364,000
Labouring people and out-servants
3½
400,000
Cottagers and paupers
3¼
35,000
Common soldiers
2
849,000
Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, beggars, &c.
3¼
500,586
Increasing the wealth of the kingdom
5⅓
849,000
Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom
3¼
1,349,586
Net totals
41/13