CHAPTER LXI.A REMARKABLE CHAPTER OF HISTORY.

Any review of the advance of this country during the past fifteen years, forms a record of the most wonderful progress ever made by any nation in such a short period. A record of the development of the country’s resources through a resistless energy that seems destined to control the markets of the world, reads almost like one of Grimm’s famous tales, for after numerous trials, and the surmounting of many obstacles, the fairy wand is turning what we will into gold.

One of the effects of the Vanderbilt boom of 1885 is to be found in the enormous mileage of new railroad construction in 1887, namely 12,000 miles. It may have looked at the time excessive, but it has turned out to be a fortunate anticipation of the great business strides made since that time. As far back as that year, our exports of manufactured articles began to show an appreciable increase.

The year following will always be memorable as the time of the great blizzard which tied New York up so effectually for several days. As a direct result of the exposure to its severity, the country lost in Roscoe Conkling one of the most picturesque figures in American politics and a man of unblemished reputation. He was taken from the arena of affairs too soon to allow his participation in the presidential campaign of that year.

My own experience at the time has impressed the memory of the great storm strongly upon my mind. I had gone to Newport accompanied by Mrs. Clews to inspect some improvements then being made at my summer home, and in returning we came across the bay in the regular boat for the purpose of taking the noon-day train which ran from Boston to New York. When we were about half way over the bay, a vicious squall struck us and we began to doubt if we should ever reach the shore again. Finally, however, we did manage to land, and connected with the belated train. Progress of course was slow, so slow in fact that the next morning saw us only as far as New London, whence further movement was out of the question. Many of my readers will recall the railroad ferry over the bay from New London. The last train previous to ours had been started across, but the violence of the tempest had compelled the pilot to give up the task and return. With more incoming trains, New London was soon congested by the sudden increase in population, and accommodations of any sort were at a premium. We were for a time at a loss as to where we could go, but fortunately succeeded in inducing the manager of the hotel there to install us in the private apartments of the proprietor, who had the day before started with his family for Florida. He spent the ensuing four days upon the railroad, between New London and New Haven, banked in by a snow drift six feet high, while we enjoyed the hospitality of his apartments during that time. I am sure that we could not conscientiously complain of the exchange. Telegraphic communication with New York was completely shut off. As our children had remained in the city, we were naturally anxious to know of their welfare and relieve any anxietythey might have as to our safety. There remained but one means of communication, and that a wire to Boston, whence messages could be cabled to Liverpool, and back to New York, and that is the way we got word to and from the metropolis. That was a rather circuitous way, but it was effective.

John H. Clews.

Mr. Cleveland’s renomination and accompanying free trade talk, disturbed the markets more or less from the date of his nomination in 1888 up to the time of General Harrison’s election. The latter’s entrance into the White House started the entire business of the country going, and through his wise management, we were brought to a very high point of prosperity, the last year of his term being, up to that time, one of the most prosperous in our history. One of General Harrison’s most signal achievements was in the exchange of reciprocity treaties, which was managed in such a masterly manner by his resourceful Secretary of State, Mr. Blaine.

In the middle of General Harrison’s term, occurred the greatest financial shock the world had experienced in the last quarter century, or since the panic of 1873.

The suspension of the great firm of Baring Bros. of London in the fall of 1890 proved a demoralizing force from the effects of which finances did not thoroughly recover for several years. The direct cause of the failure, as is now well known, was over-commitment in Argentine enterprises. Through the representations of an agent of theirs who had visited the country, everything bearing the name of Argentine was colored a most rosy hue, and the investments of that great house and its following were enormous. The inevitable reaction from such inflation found them with an immense load of these securities unmarketable, and they were forced to suspend. The assistance rendered in rehabilitatingthe firm has been signally successful. Through the efforts of Mr. Lidderdale, Governor of the Bank of England, that institution took over some seven million pounds sterling of the congested obligations of the firm. By the wise, patient, and sagacious management of these former unmarketable properties the bank was finally enabled to realize enough therefrom to pay up all the arrears of the firm.

The liquidation of American securities by British holders which was consequent upon their failure was enormous in volume and extended over several years.

The year 1890 was further noteworthy as marking the birth of that unfortunate compromise of the silver agitation known as the Sherman silver-purchase law, which was to bring about such direful results within a brief three years. After the shock of the Baring panic had subsided, the beneficial effects of the McKinley tariff law began to be felt and with increased exports, largely of grain, in the succeeding year, together with ample protection for home industries, we were ushered into 1892 under very auspicious circumstances.

Bountiful crops again provided a basis for what developed into a wonderfully prosperous year. During the year, Jay Gould (largely through the aid of his son George), by one of his characteristic strokes, succeeded in obtaining control of the Union Pacific system, while Mr. Huntington was thinking the matter over; but his personal control was not to last very long, for in December of that year, Mr. Gould died, after a career of great activity and venturesomeness, which has elsewhere been reviewed in this book.

J. B. Clews

The Democratic party still clung to their idol, and Mr. Cleveland was renominated for the presidency in 1892, and by one of those inexplicable turns of publicopinion which foolishly wished a change of administration in the midst of prosperous times, he was elected, and returned to Washington the following March, be it said, enjoying the confidence of the great majority of the people. Almost from the time of that election, the Wall Street markets were depressed, the fear of free trade measures being the basis of distrust. Late in the year, the Treasury’s stock of gold began to show signs of diminishing, and with the exception of a few rallies, one notably in the following January, prices continued on the downward course. Co-incident with the decrease of gold reserves arose reports of a disposition on the part of the Secretary of the Treasury to interpret the word “coin” in our Government obligations as allowing the redemption of the bonds in either gold or silver at the option of the Government. The effect of any doubt or question upon this most important subject could only result in unsettling confidence; of which Addison speaks as the “high priest in the temple of trade.” For the first time in very many years, our Treasury operations showed a deficit, and things were going from bad to worse. The first great smash in prices occurred in May, when the famous Cordage Trust went to pieces. At the same time, Sugar stock and the remainder of the then few industrial shares took part in the sharp decline. The gold reserve had by the middle of the year reached alarmingly low figures, so that the pressure of public opinion compelled the calling of an extra session of Congress for the purpose of repealing the silver purchase clause of the Sherman law,—which had proved to be a veritable “Old Man of the Sea” upon the back of the country, threatening to throttle business interests everywhere.

The Congressional procrastination, and obstructive tactics in the Senate worked havoc with trade and finance, and when relief finally came in the repeal of the silver purchase clause, the vitality of the patient had sunk so low, that it was a matter of years before returning health, in the form of confidence, brought back our native buoyancy and push. It became necessary early in the following year to issue $50,000,000 worth of bonds in order to keep the gold reserve from getting too near the vanishing point. Tariff agitation, which had been started by President Cleveland’s message to Congress in December, 1893, upset all the calculations of business men, who hoped, after a disastrous summer, that the tide had turned. But, no sooner was the fear of a silver deluge quieted, than revenue reform brought on another period of anxiety and delay. Fortunately when that distorted measure (with its 640 Senate amendments) which bore the name of the late William L. Wilson, a man of deep thought and the highest integrity, did become a law in the following year, it was not burdened with an income tax.

There are those who argue, probably to their own satisfaction, that this latter is an equitable form of taxation, but it has always appeared to me as putting a premium on idleness by taxing thrift.

ROSWELL P. FLOWER.

Another issue of $50,000,000 bonds was necessary before the year was out, and in spite of this replenishment, gold exports to pay our debts to Europe for securities sent back to us by the ream, continued in such volume as to render a further issue imperative in the following February. This will be remembered as somewhat unique in our Treasury operations, being in the form of a purchase of 3,500,000 oz. of gold, which cost the Government $62,500,000. The famous syndicatewhich undertook the delivery of the precious metal, agreed to do all in its power by the further deposit of gold in the Treasury and as far as possible, a control of foreign exchange rates to keep the reserve intact. Its powerful aid unquestionably saved the people from many more business disasters, by a bolstering up of confidence in the power of the Government to pay its debts. The syndicate lived up to its agreement fully, depositing in the month of August some seven and a half millions of gold.

One scarcely hears mentioned nowadays the name of that poor fellow whose fabulous fortune (on paper) finally proved too burdensome for his uneducated mind. Barney Barnato was in his way a picturesque character, and a most vivid illustration of the overthrow of mind by matter, when the former is not in control.

The sharp break in South African shares in the London market during October, of course exerted a sympathetic influence here; but worse things were yet in store for us. Our President’s famous Venezuela message to Congress in December, 1895, acted like an earthquake—which shook the markets to their very foundations and engulfed hundreds of millions of values before it subsided. The final outcome of the dispute between England and Venezuela has to a very great extent vindicated the former’s claims. Let us, however, look upon the whole matter as a step forward for civilization in the advancement of the principle of arbitration, the true solution of all international difficulties. In 1896, we did finally reach the end of our troubles, though not without much worriment. A further bond issue of $100,000,000 to meet deficits, brought that total up to $262,500,000 issued in two years. A rather expensive administration,but “troubles come not singly, but in battalions.”

The Presidential Campaign just past, with the same nominees at the head of the respective parties, recalls the wild free silver talk of four years ago. Panic and depression succeeding each other had left the people almost hysterical. After Bryan’s nomination in July, gold hoarding was the order of the day. Of course the effect of this on the money and security markets meant, under the circumstances, another downward plunge in prices. New York Central sold at 88, the lowest price in the past fifteen years, and C., B. & Q. at 53, the lowest price in nearly forty years, and all other stocks sold down in the same proportion.

J. PIERPONT MORGAN.

I have said that we reached the end of our troubles in 1896, but the end did not come till the November election, which showed that William McKinley, “the advance agent of prosperity,” had been elected President. The nomination of William J. Bryan, hitherto a comparatively unknown man, but who electrified the Democratic National Convention by his specious eloquence, the eloquence of a political Belial, able, in the Miltonic phrase, “to make the worst appear the better reason,” whose famous phrase, “you shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns, you shall not crucify labor upon a cross of gold,” swept the convention off its feet and made him the nominee for president, was a blow that for a time seriously disturbed Wall Street and commercial circles everywhere. Mr. Bryan called for the free coinage of silver at the ratio of 16 to 1, and by his tireless activity in stumping the country created a feeling of depression that reached the pitch of panic and left the people almost hysterical with fear. But as Martin Van Buren said on one occasion, “the sobersecond thought of the people is never wrong and is always efficient.” The sober second thought of the people carried the day. Crowds might flock to hear the orator, but they voted with the party of prosperity and honor. The carefully written speech of Mr. Bryan, a speech which, for once, he read from his manuscript in the great Madison Square Garden meeting, did not deceive the people; it fell flat.

With Bryan’s fiasco in this city, the clouds finally began to break. How plainly the record of these four years shows the absolute domination of the markets by Washington. And not of the financial markets alone by any means, but of the whole business interests of the country, which finally were well-nigh paralyzed by four years of increasing anxiety and wonder as to what might happen next.

It is gratifying to turn away from that period of distress to the succeeding years of prosperity. The vindication of the good sense of the people in the election of William McKinley did, at last, turn the tide; and for good and all, let us hope. With an unquestioned currency basis, improvement became possible. We were greatly favored too, in the first year of Mr. McKinley’s administration, by bountiful crops at a time of shortage in Russia, France, and the Danubian Provinces. It was a great year of prosperity for our farmers, who, through good prices, and the exportation of some 120,000,000 bushels of wheat, were enabled to pay off mortgages in wholesale fashion, and herein we see the beginning of present good times. Furthermore our export trade showed great increase. As was to be expected, there was a great rush of importations just prior to the passage of the Dingley Tariff Bill in July, and a consequent decline in revenues immediately thereafter; but thecompleted record of its operation up to the present time is a splendid tribute to the wisdom of its author. The Supreme Court decision in 1897 in what was known as the Trans-Missouri Case, declaring all railroad pooling illegal, proved somewhat of a shock to the market, but with improvement in business, our roads soon found enough traffic before them to more than go ‘round, without worrying about its division.

The year 1898 began very favorably with large gold imports and easy money. Cuban affairs, which had begun to threaten late in the previous year, finally culminated in the outbreak of war with Spain in April.

The condition of things in Cuba having become a reproach to the civilized world, this Government, acting for the conscience of Christendom, directed that the war which Spain was waging against the Cuban revolutionists should cease, with all its indescribable horrors, its barbarous cruelties to women and children, and as Spain did not heed the warning, our Government intervened in the interest of common humanity, an event which marked a distinct advance in the history of the human race, for history makes no mention of any war waged on such a scale in behalf of the cause of humanity. Certainly never was a war more clearly justified or one which showed greater courage on the part of the intervening nation, for there can be no doubt that more than one of the Continental powers of Europe would have been glad to side with Spain and would have done so, but for the emphatic negative of Great Britain.

Naturally there ensued a period of depression, but it was short-lived. The ensuing months of activity and buoyancy surpassed anything of the kind in our history. After the apprehension as to how the business world would adjust itself to war conditions had passed away,business began to boom all over the country. We were on our feet again with financial health restored. That wonderful boom in the stock market, begun in the summer of 1898 and lasting until the spring of 1899, will not soon be forgotten.

It seems more like a dream than a fact that trade and commerce and financial operations could swell to such well-nigh inconceivable figures, revealing a degree of prosperity almost past belief, like some marvelous good fortune of an individual in a Persian tale, favored by good Genii, actual fact rivalling fancy or throwing it far into the shade. In other words the oldest and most experienced merchants and financiers in this country were astounded at the degree of solid prosperity attained by the great Republic, the lion’s whelp, rivalling or surpassing the strength of the old lion, the mother country across the sea.

To the late Ex-Governor Flower belongs the credit of fearlessly taking the initiative in that marvelous rise in values to which I shall revert later on.

The formal close of the Spanish war gave fresh impetus to trading and prices kept soaring well on into the spring of 1899. The year 1898 has the distinction of marking the beginning of the greatest era of trade combinations, those gigantic commercial engines, that the world has ever seen. The capitalization of those inaugurated during 1898 and 1899 reached the fabulous aggregate of $3,500,000,000. The mind is staggered by the possibilities of enterprise which such a sum suggests.

The tendency towards centralization in the railroad world was first shown in the merger of the Lake Shore road with the New York Central.

The year 1899 was one of great prosperity, the greatest since we have been a nation, albeit its close wasmarked by one of the worst semi-panics the Street has ever experienced. In order to account for some of the most important features of the panic of December, 1899, it is necessary to take a glance backward at certain great financial events of the year even as early as April.

In that month was formed the famous Amalgamated Copper Corporation, a creation of the Standard Oil magnates.

The capital stock of the company was $75,000,000. The shares were said to be subscribed five times over. Owing to its parentage, the stock became popular, and was sustained at par for some time, but scarcely two months had elapsed before a break of 25 per cent. in the price occurred.

This break was regarded as a rather suspicious circumstance, and was supposed by the “knowing ones” to be a part of the deal. The Amalgamated Company was a mammoth combination, comprised of large share interests in over 30 companies, the famous Anaconda of Montana heading the list, and being the most prominent

The panic fell most severely upon the copper companies, the shrinkage on the share capital of which for the year is alone estimated at nearly $200,000,000.

Besides this, the currency movement to the South and West had been unusually large and prolonged, and finally tightness of money brought about an immense drop in the entire stock market. But with general conditions prosperous all over the country, such panics happily do not leave lasting scars.

The last year of the wonderful nineteenth century has been a remarkable one in our history. Since the first defeat of the silver agitators in 1896, our financial strides have been so rapid that it seems now a question of but a short time when New York will be the financialcentre of the world. What a contrast between our position in 1900, and that in 1895, when we were knocking at the door of Europe with bonds for sale to provide running expenses for our Government. To-day England finds it to her interest to place $25,000,000 of her war loan with us, Germany asks for $20,000,000 of American gold, Russia is seeking to borrow from us and Sweden has not gone empty-handed away. And these accommodations have been accorded without causing so much as a ripple in our money markets. The source of such plenty is of course found in our wonderful increase of exports. For ten months of this present calendar year, the trade balance in our favor approximates $500,000,000, making, in the past three years, the vast total of fifteen hundred million dollars balance to our credit. There we see both the lever and the fulcrum with which to move the financial world.

A little over a year ago occurred the death of Cornelius Vanderbilt, the grandson and namesake of the Commodore. Here was a gentleman whose charities were almost boundless. His gifts to the people through art and in many other ways were princely, but perhaps his memory is greener in the minds of those who, through his great private charity, were lifted above want.

These great latter day fortunes have not often failed, in this country, in being administered by men whose conception of life, and of duty toward their fellow men has turned the duty into a pleasure. This is a very great tribute to American citizenship and should not be forgotten or lost sight of by our sometime critics.

The passage of the Currency bill in March, 1900, undoubtedly did much to increase Europe’s faith in our monetary stability and, furthermore, the result of thePresidential election of 1900, the triumph of the party of sound money seems to preclude the recurrence of any attacks upon the financial honor of this country. There has been a campaign of education going on in this country ever since the advocate of the free and unlimited coinage of silver at the ratio of 16 to 1 first promulgated his doctrines. The benefit to the people of this knowledge of public affairs is clearly apparent. They will have none of false theories and suicidal experiments, they will not go after false financial gods, they will not bow the knee to the Baal of repudiation and confiscation.

While the modern method of commercial development is open to criticism in some respects, still I take it that the evils complained of are not those of very existence but are rather those of circumstance, and are open to correction by the will of the people. How often have we heard that these combinations stifle competition—but for how long? Does not their existence excite competition? Furthermore, their management calls for the very highest ability and creates a keen intellectual competition which cannot fail to be of educational value at large. It remains for ensuing years to provide correction for those defects which are bound to appear in any new and untried system.

We end the century that almost covers our national existence with a past record and prospects unparalleled. We enter the new century full of faith in our institutions, that have stood severe tests even in our short life, and full of hope for even greater national achievements. We are fast taking the lead in the affairs of nations as well as in the affairs of commerce and finance, and have need of great steadiness of character, and fixity of national honor, which now seems assured for all time. Itaugurs well that we begin the twentieth century, which displays such vistas of greatness, at peace with all the world.

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