TABLE V.—Shewing the degree of incorrectness of the returns of the ages of the female population, according to the hypotheses upon which Table IV is based.
1851.
1861.
1871.
True Age.
Returned at next lower age.
Returned correctly.
Returned at next higher age.
Returned at next lower age.
Returned correctly.
Returned at next higher age.
Returned at next lower age.
Returned correctly.
Returned at next higher age.
0–5
. . .
1171354
31698
. . .
1345875
33402
. . .
1534812
36636
5–10
. . .
1010433
18150
. . .
1137704
19348
. . .
1319071
21723
10–15
. . .
931212
22897
. . .
1025939
20393
. . .
1181746
21723
15–20
. . .
861056
26433
. . .
954319
22342
. . .
1073976
20627
20–25
. . .
804073
. . .
. . .
895618
. . .
. . .
981249
. . .
25–30
40646
695784
. . .
51323
748489
. . .
50967
847904
. . .
30–35
75346
570384
. . .
86388
627098
. . .
89395
720212
. . .
35–40
87853
485814
. . .
97990
554031
. . .
93463
617579
. . .
40–45
70065
412971
. . .
80231
489427
. . .
82955
542036
. . .
45–50
81437
344975
. . .
93642
407764
. . .
97669
470269
. . .
50–55
61132
303016
. . .
69766
345844
. . .
75825
413076
. . .
55–60
59681
248624
. . .
68523
289321
. . .
75325
345575
. . .
60–65
22771
231299
. . .
25683
265021
. . .
26686
301324
. . .
65–70
22771
172807
. . .
25683
197062
. . .
26686
231589
. . .
70–75
3072
135432
43
3972
152462
. . .
4279
173289
. . .
75–80
. . .
81043
3529
455
88860
3365
797
99896
3499
80–85
. . .
38621
1422
. . .
42038
1231
. . .
47766
1242
85–90
. . .
13560
628
. . .
14377
575
. . .
16654
490
90–95
. . .
3341
330
. . .
3419
315
. . .
3848
273
95–100
. . .
544
85
. . .
524
90
. . .
582
59
100–
. . .
52
. . .
. . .
56
. . .
. . .
60
. . .
TABLE VI.—Shewing the Male population in 1851, 1861 and 1871, as corrected upon certain hypotheses; the estimated births in 1851–70; the registered deaths apportioned according to date of birth, after adjustment; and the loss or gain of inhabitants upon a balance of migrations.
Born in
Population (Corrected.)Males.
Deaths Registered.Males.
Loss or gain by migrations.
1851–60.
1861–70.
1851.
1861.
1871.
1851–60.[25b]
1861–70.
Loss.
Gain.
Loss.
Gain.
1866–70
. . .
2006083[25a]
1572464
. . .
427200
. . .
. . .
6419
. . .
1861–65
. . .
1892329[25a]
1335819
. . .
546170
. . .
. . .
10340
. . .
1866–60
1758383[25a]
1388307
1218770
365536
180534
4540
. . .
. . .
10997
1851–55
1651656[25a]
1157960
1674713
482227
60259
11469
. . .
22988
. . .
1846–60
1208453
1057889
937917
156291
62499
. . .
5727
57473
. . .
1841–45
1030228
947930
843278
58497
75494
23801
. . .
29158
. . .
1836–40
960000
846210
751320
60004
75606
53786
. . .
19284
. . .
1831–35
868231
734287
644819
69604
74657
64340
. . .
14811
. . .
1826–30
784455
668690
580097
67451
77910
48314
. . .
10683
. . .
1821–25
696345
594280
506947
65694
81085
36371
. . .
6248
. . .
1816–20
624889
539058
447788
66739
84369
19092
. . .
6901
. . .
1811–15
535680
453310
357907
67483
89886
14887
. . .
5517
. . .
1806–10
458711
384196
284675
69394
95736
5121
. . .
3785
. . .
1801–05
389882
312000
217370
73888
104635
3994
. . .
. . .
10005
1796–1800
334904
256136
150887
78530
111999
238
. . .
. . .
6750
1791–95
273892
188538
83091
85504
111681
. . .
150
. . .
6234
1786–90
222840
129928
37173
94206
95445
. . .
1294
. . .
2690
1781–85
168040
73280
11235
96016
62880
. . .
1256
. . .
835
1776–80
116466
32356
2333
84496
29493
. . .
386
530[25c]
. . .
1771–75
66800
9509
314
57119
9550
172
. . .
. . .
355[25c]
1766–70
29493
2101
17
27390
2118
2
. . .
. . .
34
1761–65
9412
274
. . .
9116
266
22
. . .
8
. . .
1756–60
2166
20
. . .
2114
17
32
. . .
3
. . .
1751–55
318
. . .
. . .
310
. . .
8
. . .
. . .
. . .
1746–50
20
. . .
. . .
19
. . .
1
. . .
. . .
. . .
Totals
12191264
13674671
11058934
2137628
2459489
286190
8813
194148
37900
TABLE VII.—Shewing the degree of incorrectness of the returns of the ages of the Male population, according to the hypotheses upon which Table VI is based.
TrueAge.
1851.
1861.
1871.
Returned at next lower age.
Returnedcorrectly.
Returnedat nexthigher age.
Returnedat nextlower age.
Returnedcorrectly.
Returnedat nexthigher age.
Returnedat nextlower age.
Returnedcorrectly.
Returnedat nexthigher age.
0–5
. . .
1176753
31700
. . .
1354907
33400
. . .
1536464
36000
5–10
. . .
1018528
11700
. . .
1139560
18400
. . .
1314819
21000
10–15
. . .
952295
7705
. . .
1041489
16400
. . .
1199770
19000
15–20
. . .
865531
2700
. . .
941530
6400
. . .
1065713
9000
20–25
. . .
784455
. . .
. . .
846210
. . .
. . .
937917
. . .
25–30
8300
688045
. . .
7600
726687
. . .
5000
838278
. . .
30–35
11300
613589
. . .
7600
661090
. . .
5000
746320
. . .
35–40
4300
531380
. . .
600
590280
3400
. . .
640819
4000
40–45
1300
457411
. . .
. . .
539058
. . .
. . .
580097
. . .
45–50
16800
373082
. . .
8600
444710
. . .
6000
500947
. . .
50–55
19800
315104
. . .
8600
375596
. . .
6000
441788
. . .
55–60
31000
242892
. . .
16600
295400
. . .
14000
343907
. . .
60–65
12000
210840
. . .
3600
252536
. . .
2000
282675
. . .
65–70
16400
151640
. . .
13000
175538
. . .
12000
205370
. . .
70–75
. . .
114730
1736
. . .
128428
1500
. . .
149887
1000
75–80
. . .
63280
3520
. . .
70280
3000
. . .
81091
2000
80–85
. . .
28170
1323
. . .
31256
1100
. . .
36573
600
85–90
. . .
9100
312
. . .
9259
250
. . .
11085
150
90–95
. . .
1970
196
. . .
1941
160
. . .
2233
100
95–100
. . .
260
58
. . .
239
35
. . .
290
24
100–
. . .
20
. . .
. . .
20
. . .
. . .
17
. . .
TABLE VIII.—Shewing the differences between (1) The National percentage of persons surviving at each age in 1871, (including estimated loss by emigration in 1861–71) calculated on the numbers ten years younger enumerated in 1861; and (2) the ratios of inhabitants enumerated in each Division in 1871, compared with the respective populations ten years younger enumerated in 1861. The populations employed have first been corrected according to Statements A and B.
Age in 1871
I.London.
II.South Eastern.
III.South Midland.
IV.Eastern.
V.South Western.
VI.West Midland.
VII.North Midland.
VIII.North Western.
IX.Yorkshire.
X.Northern.
XI.Welsh.
EnglandandWales.
MALES. Excess or deficiency of the ratio of survivors, compared with National ratio.
10–15
-4.3
+7.6
+6.1
+1.9
-1.3
-.3
-.6
-.7
+2.8
+4.2
-.7
+0.8
15–20
+1.6
+1.2
-8.8
-11.2
-9.4
-3.6
-6.0
+1.6
+3.6
+4.8
-3.6
-2.0
20–25
+14.5
-4.0
-20.9
-25.3
-26.8
-10.0
+14.2
+2.7
+4.4
+12.8
-9.9
-6.4
25–30
+21.6
-3.2
-14.1
-21.2
-28 5
-8.4
+13.0
+4.6
+6.0
+14.6
-13.1
-3 0
30–35
+7.4
-2.8
-4.2
-6.6
-17.8
-5.9
-6.0
-1.2
+4.5
+5.5
-9 5
-2.3
35–40
-1.6
+.1
+1.0
-.3
-8.8
+4.4
-2.3
-3.4
+3.8
+2.0
-7.0
-2.0
40–45
-3.6
+.2
+1.8
+.5
-4.9
-3.4
+1.0
-2.3
+3.7
+3.3
-7.2
-1.5
45–50
-5.9
+1.7
+2.4
+1.9
+1.1
+1.8
+.6
-3.5
+1.8
+2.9
-3.0
-1.1
50–55
-7.2
+2.1
+2.1
+2.4
-.8
-2.1
+1.8
-4.9
+2.5
+2.0
-.6
-1.2
55–60
-10.6
+5.5
+2.6
+2.7
+1.3
-1.8
+2.9
-6.7
+1.4
+.9
+.9
-1.3
60–65
-8.5
+4.2
+4.8
+5.7
+1.3
-1.2
+2.5
-7.3
-1.7
+.7
+.6
-1.0
65–70
-4.2
+10.5
+8.3
+10.5
+7.2
+3.6
+6.0
-3.9
+.9
+1.8
+2.3
+3.2
70–75
-5.4
+9.0
+7.8
+10.0
+7.7
+2.5
+6.5
-6.3
-.3
+2.2
+2.1
+2.6
75–80
-4.8
+8.0
+6.5
+9.4
+7.1
+4.3
+5.5
-4.5
-1.3
+1.7
+6.6
+3.3
80–85
-3.1
+4.4
+2.6
+6.1
+4.9
+2.8
+3.0
-3.4
-2.1
+.5
+8.0
+2.1
85–90
-.4
+2.8
+.1
+3.5
+1.6
+1.4
+.6
-2.2
-1.5
+2.3
+4.7
+1.1
FEMALES. Excess or deficiency of the ratio of survivors, compared with the National ratio.
10–15
-3.0
+5.5
+1.6
-.5
-2 9
-1.4
-1.9
. . .
+1.2
+26
-2.3
-.3
15–20
+15.4
-1.0
-7.1
-15.0
-9.4
+3.1
-6.9
+7.8
+3.9
+1.2
-7.8
-.l
20–25
+30.0
+1.5
-11.7
-20.3
-14.6
-4.9
-11.1
+9.2
+3.6
+8
-12.9
+.1
25–30
+18.9
+8.0
-6.0
-12.5
-16.8
-5.3
-10.3
+5.4
+3.5
+4.6
-11.9
+.1
30–35
+4.6
+7.9
-1.0
+5.5
-12.2
-4.8
-5.9
-.3
+3.7
+5.6
+5.8
-.7
35–40
+3.1
+5.3
+1.3
-2.5
-7.2
+2.2
-3.3
-2.9
+3.7
+4.4
-4.4
-1.3
40–45
-5.0
+4.2
+1.3
-.3
-4.3
-1.8
-1.8
-2.1
+2.5
+1.5
-5.8
-1.4
45–50
-6.4
+3.7
+2.1
+.3
-1.1
-.9
-1.1
-2.4
+1.8
+1.4
-2.8
-1.1
50–55
-5.8
+4.1
+1.7
+.3
+.7
-1.3
+.3
-4.1
+1.5
+2.3
-.2
-.9
55–60
-6.9
+5.7
+3.6
+1.2
+.1
-.8
+1.2
-5.0
+2.1
+2.2
-.3
-.6
60–65
-4.7
+4.3
+3.7
+2.2
+1.1
-.6
+.5
-4.9
-1.1
-.1
+2.1
-.5
65–70
-3.9
+3.7
+4.0
+5.5
+3.2
+.5
-.1
-6.9
-2.3
-.5
+1.2
-.3
70–75
-4.0
+6.0
+4.1
+6.1
+3.5
+.3
+1.0
-8.4
+3.0
-.8
+.8
-.2
75–80
-3.2
+3.5
+.7
+5.7
+3.0
+.3
+.6
-7.1
-4.6
-.4
+4.3
-.1
80–85
-2.4
+2.1
-.1
+4.3
+.4
+.5
-1.2
-5.7
+3.8
-2.0
+8.1
-.2
85–90
+.1
+1.6
+.2
+3.8
+1.5
+.8
-.7
-2.6
-1.4
-.1
+4.7
+.7
Memo.—If the mortality in each Division was exactly the same, these ratios would truly represent loss by emigration or gain by immigration; however, there is a good reason to think that at the higher ages the losses are (in Divisions I and VIII especially) caused by excessive mortality, and the gains in other Divisions are largely occasioned by the mortality therein being below the average.
[4]This should be read “0 and under 5.â€
[6]These estimates have been made upon the basis of an apportionment derived from a consideration of the “English Life Table No. 3;†but I refrain from going into a detailed account of the process, for fear of rendering this paper more prolix and uninteresting than its character necessitates.
[8a]Net gain of incoming Irish, foreigners, &c., in excess of those departing. Net loss of English-born Emigrants, in excess of English returning home.
[8b]This is framed on the assumption that the migrations in each year were exactly alike in number.
[11a]It will be noticed that some of the ratios of inaccuracy attributed to the census figures of 1851 are lower than those for later censuses. These exceptions to the rule of decreasing inaccuracy might be removed without any very violent disturbance of the estimates shewn in Table IV, but it is thought scarcely requisite to do so.
[11b]The percentage would be 20.0 (more or less), except at high ages, for each year of error.
[14]Net Gain.
[15]A further slight modification in the estimates of unregistered male births will be noticed. It affects the estimated emigration in 1861–70 to the extent of about 10,000 persons,—making it 156,248 instead of 165,800.
[16]The following specimen calculation, shewing the ingredients which constitute the computed deaths in 1861–1870 amongst females born in 1851–1855, in 1816–1820, and in 1811–1815 respectively, will illustrate what I mean:—
Year of Death.
Born 1851–55.
Born 1816–20.
Born 1811–15.
Age5–10.
Age10–15.
Age15–20.
Totals.
Age35–45.
Age45–55.
Totals.
Age45–55.
Age55–65.
Totals.
1861
6730
518
. . .
7248
6234
645
6879
6514
. . .
6514
1862
5259
1603
. . .
6862
4999
1994
6993
6669
. . .
6669
1863
4630
2915
. . .
7575
3688
3392
7080
6813
. . .
6813
1864
2452
3989
. . .
6441
2350
5366
7716
7686
. . .
7686
1865
678
4626
. . .
5304
785
6993
7778
7873
. . .
7873
1866
. . .
4499
620
5119
. . .
8048
8048
7413
844
8257
1867
. . .
2949
1786
4735
. . .
7547
7547
5443
2410
7853
1868
. . .
2274
3045
5319
. . .
7359
7359
3813
3983
7796
1860
. . .
1437
4351
5788
. . .
7859
7859
2466
5985
8451
1870
. . .
510
6192
6702
. . .
8098
8098
873
8264
9137
19749
25350
15994
61093
18056
57301
75357
55563
21486
77049
[19a]The first line of Table VIII shews the effect of the removal of families from the first division to the semi-suburban districts in divisions II and III. Such families take with them a good many children; hence the loss to the metropolitan division, and the gain to the two divisions mentioned of both boys and girls.
[19b]The following statement may make this fact clearer:—
Division.
Births recorded1841–45.
Population in 1871born 1841–45.
Proportionas 100 to—
I. London
316037
289951
91.7
V. South-western
266860
126219
47.3
VIII. North-western
392151
279606
71.3
The survivors, according to the English Life Table No. 3, should be about 62.2 per cent. The low rate of mortality in the South-western counties renders it certain that, but for migrations, the ratio of enumerated population to the corresponding births would be higher than 62.2 in that division; in the other divisions it would be lower.
[20]I am of opinion that the gain in this column, so far as regards London death-rates, is due to the departure of many women when in bad health, some of whom die in the country. But for the effect of such departures, the recorded deaths and the apparent net gain by migrations would reach higher numbers.
[22]The procedure for instance in 1881 might be:—Take the English population at each age in 1871 as already corrected, and introduce the numbers of births returned in 1876–80 and 1871–75 as the first two terms of the series, adding a reasonable allowance for non-registration. Deduct the deaths in 1871–80, duly apportioned under periods of birth. The gross number of either sex enumerated in 1881 being known, the net loss or gain by migrations can then be ascertained. Apportion this in somewhat similar proportions to those observed in 1851–60. The final results will exhibit approximately the distribution of population by ages in 1881.
[23a]It will be noticed that I have paid no regard to the interval of time between the census day and the January preceding, treating the exact decennium as being a near enough equivalent of the interval between census and census.
[23b]These numbers represent the births in the periods mentioned,plusan allowance for omissions, viz. 1¾ per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2, 2¼, and 3½ per cent. on births in the earlier periods respectively.
[23c]The correction adopted in the case of female births is rather larger than in that of male births. These figures are those returned,plus2 per cent. on the births in 1866–70, and 2¼, 2¾, and 4 per cent. respectively on the births in the earlier periods.
[24a]Births, plus allowance for those unregistered, say 2 per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2¾, 3¼, and 4 per cent. respectively on births in the earlier periods.
[24b]The few deaths “age not stated†are disregarded.
[25a]Births,plusallowance for those unregistered, say 1½ per cent. on births in 1866–70, and 2¼, 2.65 and 3.5 per cent. respectively on births in the earlier periods.
[25b]The few deaths “are not stated†are disregarded.
[25c]These figures are, I think, improbable; I suppose the apportionment of deaths may be chiefly in fault.