----------------------------------------------------------------------Table 6. Number ever incarcerated in a State or Federal prison, bygender, race, Hispanic origin, and age, 2001Number of adults ever incarcerated in a State or Federal prison,by age--18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 orolderGenderMale 385,000 1,157,000 1,460,000 1,014,000 492,000 529,000Female 24,000 129,000 205,000 118,000 47,000 59,000Race/Hispanic originWhite* 112,000 391,000 628,000 497,000 271,000 304,000Male 104,000 351,000 555,000 452,000 248,000 269,000Female 8,000 41,000 73,000 45,000 23,000 35,000Black* 181,000 567,000 681,000 406,000 162,000 169,000Male 172,000 509,000 597,000 361,000 146,000 151,000Female 9,000 58,000 84,000 45,000 16,000 18,000Hispanic 99,000 295,000 309,000 181,000 69,000 46,000Male 93,000 271,000 279,000 165,000 63,000 41,000Female 6,000 24,000 3,0000 16,000 6,000 5,000Note: Estimates were rounded to the nearest 1,000. SeeMethodologyfor estimation procedures."*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.----------------------------------------------------------------------
Regardless of gender, race or Hispanic origin, prevalence rates highest among persons age 35 to 44
Although there was wide variation by race, Hispanic origin, and gender, within each subgroup, persons ages 35 to 44 had the highest percents ever incarcerated in 2001. Among men, the percent ever incarcerated rose for each age group to a peak of 6.5% of those ages 35 to 44 and then declined to 3.1% of those age 65 or older (table 7).
----------------------------------------------------------------------Table 7. Percent of adult population ever incarcerated in a State orFederal prison, by gender, race, Hispanic origin, ang age, 2001Percent of adult population ever incarcerated in a Stateor Federal prison, by age--"18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 or olderGenderMale 2.7% 6.0% 6.5% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1%Female 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2Race/Hispanic originWhite* 0.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1%Male 1.1 2.8 3.5 3.1 2.5 2.0Female 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2Black* 4.4% 10.9% 12.1% 9.5% 6.7% 5.9%Male 8.5 20.4 22.0 17.7 13.0 11.6Female 0.4 2.1 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.9Hispanic 2.2% 5.1% 5.8% 5.2% 3.6% 2.2%Male 4.0 9.0 10.0 9.5 6.6 4.1Female 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3Note: Percents were based on intercensal resident populationestimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. SeeMethodologyfor datasources.*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.U.S. adult resident population, 200118-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 orolderGenderMale 14,417,325 8,939,186 22,389,203 19,117,478 12,022,028 14,607,040Female 13,795,256 19,089,714 22,555,935 19,879,361 13,119,592 20,275,786Race/Hispanic originWhite* 18,303,498 24,885,780 31,782,158 29,517,823 19,800,209 28,884,741Male 9,375,574 12,489,397 15,944,122 14,647,562 9,615,049 12,145,733Female 8,927,925 12,396,383 15,838,036 14,870,261 10,185,160 16,739,009Black* 4,076,908 5,196,820 5,624,914 4,297,967 2,409,671 2,860,327Male 2,008,858 2,472,112 2,666,839 1,963,452 1,043,119 1,133,328Female 2,068,051 2,724,708 2,958,076 2,334,515 1,366,552 1,726,999Hispanic 4,394,592 5,737,009 5,334091 3,448,416 1,936,521 2,098,875Male 2,299,849 2,940,171 2,734938 1,696,233 896,361 885,418Female 2,094,743 2,796,838 2,599153 1,752,183 1,040,160 1,213,457Note: Because of estimation and other rounding procedures, somedetail may not add to totals and may not match precisely totalsin other tables.----------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a similar pattern among women, though the percents were lower than for men. An estimated 0.9% of women ages 35 to 44 had ever been in prison, compared to 0.2% for women ages 18 to 24 and age 65 or older.
When rates were estimated separately by race and Hispanic origin, the variations among age groups remained unchanged. In every gender and racial/ethnic group in 2001, the percent of ever having been incarcerated was lowest among the youngest group (those ages 18 to 24)and the oldest age group (age 65 or older).
Among persons ages 35 to 44, more than 22.0% of black males had ever been incarcerated in prison, over twice as high as Hispanic males (10.0%), and over 6 times higher than white males (3.5%). In this same age group, black women (2.8%) were over twice as likely as Hispanic women (1.1%), and nearly 6 times as likely as white women (0.5%) to have been in prison.
Impact of rising first incarceration rate varies by birth cohort
Persons born prior to 1940 were nearly unaffected by the rising first incarceration rates of the 1980's and 1990's. At younger ages (up to the age of 40), the prevalence rates at 5-year age intervals were the same for persons born in 1935 as in 1910 (table 8). The rising rates of first incarceration increased the prevalence of incarceration among those born in 1935 as they reached age 45. Similarly, the prevalence rates rose for those born in 1930 as they reached age 50.
----------------------------------------------------------------------Table 8. Percent of adults ever incarcerated in a State or Federalprison, by year of birth and agePercent of adults ever incarcerated in a State or Federal prison, by age--Yearborn 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 751910 0.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%1915 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.61920 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.61925 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.61930 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 +1.7+1935 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 +1.9 1.9+1940 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 +2.1 2.1 2.1+1945 0.4 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 +2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4+1950 0.4 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.7 +2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9+1955 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.2 +3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7+1960 0.6 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.5 +4.0 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5+1965 0.7 1.7 2.8 3.7 +4.4 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4+1970 0.9 2.2 3.4 +4.4 5.1 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0+1975 1.1 2.6 +3.9 4.9 5.7 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5+1980 1.2 +2.7 4.0 5.0 5.7 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6+Note: Based on constant age-specific first incarceration rates after2001 (bolded type--indicated with plus (+) signs).----------------------------------------------------------------------
Among persons born after 1935, the effects of rising first incarceration rates occurred at increasingly younger ages. Persons born in 1955 were the first to record higher prevalence rates at all ages, compared to persons born in prior years. At age 45 the percent ever having been in prison reached 3.2% for persons born in 1955 -- more than double the percent at that age among persons born in 1930 or earlier.
The greatest rise occurred in the percents having been incarcerated among the most recent cohorts. For persons born in 1975, 2.6% had been to prison by age 25, nearly equal to the percent among persons born in 1950 who had been to prison by age 50 (2.7%).
Projections for years after 2001 indicate the percent ever incarcerated will rise at an accelerated pace. If rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, 5.4% of persons born in 1965 are expected to have gone to prison by age 75, more than three times the 1.7% of persons born in 1930.
The projected rise in the percent ever incarcerated slows among persons in later cohorts. Of those born in 1970, 6.0% are expected to have been in prison by age 75, compared to 6.5% of those born in 1975, and 6.6% of those born in 1980.
3.4% of adults projected to have served time in prison by 2010
The prevalence of having been to prison will rise among the U.S. adult population as more birth cohorts experience the full impact of current levels of first incarceration. Assuming that current age-specific rates of first incarceration remain at 2001 levels, the number of adults having ever served time in prison is projected to rise to 7.7 million by 2010. A total of 3.4% of the adult population (1 in 29 persons age 18 or older) is expected to have served time in prison.
----------------------------------------------------------------------Projected prevalence of having gone to State or Federal prison*Year Number Percent2001 5,618,000 2.7%2002 5,856,000 2.82003 6,095,000 2.82004 6,332,000 2.92005 6,568,000 3.02006 6,804,000 3.12007 7,040,000 3.12008 7,275,000 3.22009 7,511,000 3.32010 7,745,000 3.4*Based on prevalence estimates for exact ages through 2001 andprojections for exact ages from 2002 through 2010. SeeMethodologyfor estimation procedures.Projected adultYear resident population2001 210,207,9012002 212,427,9442003 214,688,2682004 216,918,7132005 219,144,0442006 221,409,9462007 223,754,1932008 226,155,7712009 228,520,7852010 230,792,746----------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifetime likelihood estimates of going to prison differ from current prevalence estimates
The lifetime likelihood of going to prison is an estimate of the percentage of all persons in a birth cohort expected to go to prison over the course of a lifetime. In contrast, the prevalence of ever having gone to prison is an estimate of the percentage who have ever gone to prison among just the surviving members of all birth cohorts over a specific period.
Estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison project the percentage of persons at birth expected to go to prison, if the entire cohort were subject to a fixed set of rates of first admission to prison and mortality over an entire lifetime. In calculating these estimates, incarceration and mortality rates are fixed at the time of "birth" of the cohort.
Standard life table techniques were used to prepare estimates of the lifetime likelihood of going to prison based on rates of first incarceration during a 12-month period derived from inmate surveys conducted in 1974, 1979, 1986, 1991, and 1997. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997, for a description of previous estimates.)
6.6% of persons born in 2001 will go to prison, if current rates of first incarceration remain unchanged
If rates of first incarceration and mortality in 2001 remain unchanged, nearly 1 in 15 persons born in 2001 (6.6%) will go to State or Federal prison during their lifetime (figure 3).
Figure 3: Lifetime chances of going to prison
Figure 3: Lifetime chances of going to prison
----------------------------------------------------------------------Figure 3The lifetime chances of going to prison reached 6.6% in 2001,up from 1.9% in 1974Cumulative percent of U.S. residentsgoing to prisonAge 1974 1986 1991 200113 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.017 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.218 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.419 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.820 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.121 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.522 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.823 0.9 1.2 1.9 2.124 1.0 1.4 2.1 2.425 1.1 1.5 2.4 2.626 1.1 1.7 2.6 2.927 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.128 1.3 1.9 3.0 3.429 1.4 2.0 3.2 3.630 1.4 2.1 3.3 3.931 1.5 2.2 3.5 4.132 1.5 2.3 3.6 4.333 1.5 2.4 3.7 4.534 1.6 2.5 3.9 4.735 1.6 2.5 4.0 4.936 1.6 2.6 4.1 5.137 1.7 2.7 4.2 5.238 1.7 2.7 4.3 5.439 1.7 2.8 4.4 5.540 1.7 2.8 4.5 5.641 1.7 2.9 4.5 5.742 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.843 1.8 2.9 4.6 5.944 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.045 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.146 1.8 3.0 4.7 6.147 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.248 1.8 3.1 4.8 6.249 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.250 1.8 3.1 4.9 6.351 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.352 1.9 3.2 4.9 6.453 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.454 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.455 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.456 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.457 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.558 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.559 1.9 3.2 5.1 6.560 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.561 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.562 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.563 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.564 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.565 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.666 1.9 3.3 5.1 6.667 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.668 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.669 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.670 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.671 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.672 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.673 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.674 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.675 1.9 3.3 5.2 6.6----------------------------------------------------------------------
Unlike the yearend 2001 prevalence rate of 2.7%, which represents the cumulative result of the past incarceration experiences of the living adult population, the lifetime likelihood is a hypothetical projection of the future if a birth cohort were to experience a fixed set of rates of first incarceration and mortality over a lifetime.
Between 1974 and 2001, the lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison for U.S. residents overall in- creased from 1.9% to 6.6%. Each estimate summarized the effects of first incarceration and mortality during a 12-month period in 1974, 1986, 1991, and 2001. The estimates do not take into account changes in rates of first incarceration or mortality that occur after the "birth" of the hypothetical cohort. As a result of steadily rising rates of first incarceration from 1974 to 2001, the lifetime chances of going to prison for persons born in 1974 will be higher than 1.9%. Based on rates of first incarceration through 2001, an estimated 2.6% of persons born in 1975 had already been incarcerated by age 25.
6 times higher lifetime chance of going to prison in 2001 for men than for women
Based on rates of first incarceration in 2001, the lifetime chances for men of going to prison are 6 times greater than those for women (table 9). A male has a 11.3% (or 1 in 9) chance in his life-time of going to prison, while a female has a 1.8% (or 1 in 56) chance. An estimated 9.6% of men and 1.5% of women are expected to go to prison by age 40, as first incarceration rates riserapidly, then decline with advancing age (figures 4 and 5).
----------------------------------------------------------------------Table 9. Lifetime chances of going to State or Federal prison forthe first time, by gender, race, and Hispanic orign, 1974-2001Percent of resident population expected to go toState or Federal prison for the first time, byyear--1974 1979 1986 1991 1997 2001GenderMale 3.6% 4.1% 6.0% 9.1% 10.6% 11.3%Female 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8Race/Hispanic originWhite* 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 3.1 3.4%Male 2.2 2.5 3.6 4.4 5.4 5.9Female 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9Black* 7.0% 7.2% 9.3% 16.5% 17.7 18.6%Male 13.4 13.4 17.4 29.4 31.0 32.2Female 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.6 4.9 5.6Hispanic 2.2% 3.3% 6.2% 9.5% 10.5 10.0%Male 4.0 6.0 11.1 16.3 18.0 17.2Female 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2Note: Percents represent the chances of being admitted to State orFederal prison during a lifetime.Estimates were obtained by applying age-specific first incarcerationand mortality rates for each group to a hypothetical population of100,000 births. SeeMethodology.*Excludes persons of Hispanic origin.----------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure 4: Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison
Figure 4: Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prison
----------------------------------------------------------------------Figure 4+Nearly 1 in 3 black males likely to go to prisonbased on constant 2001 incarceration rates+Cumulative percent of males going to prisonAge Total White Black Hispanic13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.117 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.318 0.8 0.3 3.0 1.019 1.4 0.5 4.9 2.120 2.1 0.8 6.7 3.021 2.7 1.2 8.2 4.122 3.3 1.5 9.8 5.023 3.8 1.6 11.8 5.524 4.3 1.8 13.7 6.025 4.7 2.1 15.1 6.726 5.2 2.3 16.9 7.227 5.6 2.5 18.0 7.928 6.1 2.8 19.3 8.629 6.5 3.0 20.2 9.330 6.9 3.3 21.0 10.331 7.2 3.4 22.2 10.832 7.6 3.6 23.2 11.033 7.9 3.8 23.8 11.534 8.1 4.0 24.5 12.035 8.4 4.1 25.2 12.536 8.7 4.3 26.1 13.037 9.0 4.4 27.2 13.238 9.2 4.6 27.7 13.439 9.4 4.7 28.2 13.840 9.6 4.7 28.6 14.141 9.7 4.9 29.1 14.442 9.9 5.0 29.5 14.843 10.1 5.1 30.0 15.244 10.3 5.2 30.3 15.445 10.4 5.2 30.7 15.646 10.5 5.3 30.8 15.847 10.6 5.3 31.1 15.948 10.6 5.4 31.2 15.949 10.7 5.5 31.3 16.150 10.7 5.5 31.4 16.151 10.8 5.5 31.5 16.452 10.9 5.6 31.6 16.553 10.9 5.7 31.7 16.654 11.0 5.7 31.8 16.755 11.0 5.7 31.9 16.856 11.0 5.7 32.0 16.857 11.1 5.7 32.0 16.958 11.1 5.8 32.0 16.959 11.1 5.8 32.0 17.060 11.1 5.8 32.0 17.161 11.2 5.8 32.1 17.162 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.163 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.164 11.2 5.8 32.2 17.265 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.266 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.267 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.268 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.269 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.270 11.2 5.9 32.2 17.271 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.272 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.273 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.274 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.275 11.3 5.9 32.2 17.2----------------------------------------------------------------------
Figure 5: 1 in 19 black females likely to go to prison
Figure 5: 1 in 19 black females likely to go to prison
----------------------------------------------------------------------Figure 51 in 19 black females compared with 1 in 118 whitefemales likely to go to prisonCumulative percent of femalesgoing to prisonAge Total White Black Hispanic13 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.014 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.017 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.118 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.119 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.120 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.221 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.322 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.323 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.524 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.525 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.626 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.627 0.5 0.3 1.7 0.728 0.6 0.3 1.8 0.829 0.7 0.4 2.1 0.930 0.8 0.4 2.3 1.131 0.9 0.4 2.7 1.132 1.0 0.5 3.0 1.233 1.1 0.5 3.3 1.334 1.1 0.6 3.5 1.435 1.2 0.6 3.7 1.536 1.3 0.6 4.0 1.637 1.3 0.7 4.2 1.738 1.4 0.7 4.4 1.739 1.4 0.7 4.6 1.840 1.5 0.8 4.7 1.841 1.5 0.8 4.9 1.942 1.6 0.8 4.9 1.943 1.6 0.8 5.1 1.944 1.6 0.8 5.2 1.945 1.6 0.8 5.3 1.946 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.047 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.148 1.7 0.8 5.4 2.149 1.7 0.8 5.5 2.150 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.151 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.152 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.153 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.254 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.255 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.256 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.257 1.7 0.9 5.5 2.258 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.259 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.260 1.7 0.9 5.6 2.261 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.262 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.263 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.264 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.265 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.266 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.267 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.268 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.269 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.270 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.271 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.272 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.273 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.274 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.275 1.8 0.9 5.6 2.2----------------------------------------------------------------------
In 2001, the chances of going to prison were highest among black males (32.2%)and Hispanic males (17.2%) and lowest among white males (5.9%). The lifetime chances of going to prison among black females (5.6%) were nearly as high as for white males. Hispanic females (2.2%) and white females (0.9%) had much lower chances of going to prison.
As a result of changes in first incarceration and mortality rates between 1974 and 2001, black males experienced a greater increase in the chances of going to prison over the course of a lifetime than any other group (from 13.4% in 1974 to 32.2% in 2001). Hispanic males experienced the second largest increase (from 4.0% in 1974 to 17.2% in 2001). White males experienced a smaller increase (from 2.2% in 1974 to 5.9% in 2001).
The lifetime chances of going to prison increased more rapidly for black females (from 1.1% in 1974 to 5.6% in 2001) than for white males. Hispanic females (from 0.4% in 1974 to 2.2% in 2001) and white females (from 0.2% in 1974 to 0.9% in 2001) had smaller increases in their lifetime chances of going to prison.
At every age men have higher chances of going to prison than women, and blacks and Hispanics have higher chances than whites. Based on current rates of first incarceration, an estimated 6.7% of black males will enter State or Federal prison by the time they are age 20, compared to 3.0% of Hispanic males and 0.8% of white males.
Methodology
Life table techniques
Life table techniques previously used to illustrate the implications of prevailing incarceration rates in 1991 have been extended to model the incarceration experience of actual generations of U.S. residents. (See Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison, NCJ 160092, March 1997.) These generation life tables provide the data needed to estimate the number of living persons who have ever been incarcerated.
A generation life table traces a birth cohort of 100,000 persons through their entire lives, subjecting them to the observed age-specific mortality and incarceration rates which they encountered in each subsequent calendar year of life. The procedure is known as a double-decrement life table because there are two forms of exit from the initial 100,000 birth cohort. The procedure yields estimates of the number of persons in the birth cohort who are incarcerated for the first time each year or who die.
At each year of age, the estimated number of living persons ever incarcerated is equal to the number of persons identified as a prisoner for the first time that year plus the number of surviving members of the birth cohort who were prisoners in prior years. The age-specific prevalence rate for members of the birth cohort is obtained by dividing the surviving number of persons ever incarcerated by the number of members of the 100,000 birth cohort who have survived to the current age (including both those never incarcerated and those ever incarcerated).
----------------------------------------------------------------------Appendix table 1. Calculating the number of persons everincarcerated in State or Federal prison, 2001Prevalence of ever going to prison, 2001U.S. residentpopulation,Year of Age in 2000[a] Percent[b] Number[c]birth 2001 (1) (2) (3)1983-1901 18 or older 210,207,901 2.673 56180002001-1988 0-13 56,557,383 0.000 01987 14 4,063,179 0.000 01986 15 4,071,585 0.000 01985 16 4,083,677 0.036 1,0001984 17 4,117,221 0.174 7,0001983 18 4,022,021 0.453 18,0001982 19 4,327,407 0.794 34,0001981 20 4,264,552 1.146 49,0001980 21 4,140,721 1.510 63,0001979 22 3,935,452 1.845 73,0001978 23 3,756,052 2.155 81,0001977 24 3,766,377 2.428 91,0001976 25 3,643,765 2.676 97,0001975 26 3,572,926 2.911 104,0001974 27 3,579,019 3.082 110,0001973 28 3,386,129 3.252 110,0001972 29 3,876,011 3.360 130,0001971 30 3,989,205 3.506 140,0001970 31 4,032,301 3.584 145,0001969 32 3,993,019 3.689 147,0001968 33 3,899,282 3.764 147,0001967 34 4,057,246 3.824 155,0001966 35 4,110,892 3.857 159,0001965 36 4,182,093 3.895 163,0001964 37 4,416,302 3.887 172,0001963 38 4,265,440 3.840 164,0001962 39 4,826,377 3.778 182,0001961 40 4,725,422 3.692 174,0001960 41 4,634,371 3.641 169,0001959 42 4,597,285 3.563 164,0001958 43 4,518,648 3.507 158,0001957 44 4,668,310 3.439 161,0001956 45 4,464,137 3.356 150,0001955 46 4,227,667 3.267 138,0001954 47 4,192,570 3.180 133,0001953 48 3,863,432 3.068 119,0001952 49 4,131,847 2.953 122,0001951 50 3,838,209 2.819 108,0001950 51 3,595,173 2.688 97,0001949 52 3,516,992 2.584 91,0001948 53 3,497,820 2.475 87,0001947 54 3,668,994 2.397 88,0001946 55 3,180,818 2.341 74,0001945 56 2,746,790 2.280 63,0001944 57 2,788,492 2.220 62,0001943 58 2,665,273 2.173 58,0001942 59 2,710,967 2.131 58,0001941 60 2,398,614 2.086 50,0001940-1931 61-70 19,778,402 ... 377,0001930-1901 71 or older 23,755,091 ... 384,000[a] The number of U.S. residents on December 31, 2001, by age, werebased on projections for July 1, 2000, and July 1, 2001.(See Projections of the Resident Population by Age, Sex,, Race andHispanic Origin: 1999 to 2100, U.S. Census Bureau, NP-D1-A, middleseries.) The data were adjusted for the undercount in the 1990decennial census.[b] Based on separate generation life tables starting in the year ofbirth of the persons at each year of age. (See Appendix tables 2and 3 for calculations for selected years of birth.)[c] Estimates were calculated by multiplying column (1) by column (2)and rounded to the nearest 1,000.... Not shown, because all calculations were based on rates for singleyears of age.----------------------------------------------------------------------
To model the incarceration experience of the adult resident population in 2001, a separate generation life table was needed for each birth cohort born from 1901 to 1983. For example, of those born in 1980 and alive in 2001, an estimated 1.510% had ever gone to prison (Appendix table 1, column 2). Multiplying by 4,140,721 U.S. residents age 21 in 2001 (column 1), produced an estimate of 63,000 persons, age 21 in 2001, who had ever been incarcerated (column 3).
Similarly, the generation life table for the 1970 birth cohort produced an estimated prevalence of 3.584% among those age 31 in 2001. Multiplying by 4,032,301 U.S. residents age 31 in 2001 resulted in an estimated 145,000 persons age 31 in 2001 who had ever been incarcerated. The estimated 5,618,000 adults ever incarcerated in 2001 was obtained by summing the number of persons ever incarcerated, age 18 or older. Dividing by the adult resident population of 210,207,901 yielded an estimated prevalence of ever having gone to prison of 2.673% in 2001.
Estimating prevalence of imprisonment in the United States
To illustrate the application of generation life table techniques resulting in the 1.510% rate of ever having gone to prison among persons born in 1980, consider the following calculations:
1. Estimates of the number of persons in a population of 100,000 born in 1980 who died during each age interval were obtained by multiplying the age-specific mortality rate (Appendix table 2, column 2) by the number of persons alive and not previously incarcerated at each age (column 1).
* For example, among persons who reached age 21 without having been previously incarcerated, a total of 92 were estimated to have died (column 3) before reaching age 22 (that is, 96,607 times the mortality rate of 0.000955).
2. The number of persons in the 1980 cohort who were at risk to incarceration during an age interval was then calculated by subtracting the number dying from the number of persons who were alive and not previously incarcerated at the beginning of the age interval (column 1 minus column 3).
* An estimated 96,515 of the persons who survived to age 21 without being incarcerated were at risk to first incarceration at age 21.
3. The number of persons in the original 100,000 population estimated to have been admitted to prison at each age (column 5) was then obtained by multiplying the age-specific first admission rates (column 4)by the number of persons alive and not previously incarcerated.
* Among persons born in 1980 who had not been previously incarcerated by age 21, 343 were estimated to have been incarcerated before they reached age 22 (that is, 96,515 times the first incarceration rate of .003557).
4. The number of living persons at each age who had ever gone to prison was then calculated by summing the number going to prison for the first time during that year of age (column 5) plus the number of members of the 1980 birth cohort who previously went to prison and survived until the next year of age (column 6 times the survival rate, not shown).
* Of the 1,132 persons who had gone to prison and reached age 20, 1,131 survived to reach age 21. An additional 343 persons were expected to be incarcerated for the first time before reaching age 22 (for a cumulative total of 1,474).
5. The percent of persons at each specific age who had ever gone to prison (column 7) was then calculated by dividing the number of persons who had ever gone to prison and were still alive (column 6) by all persons who were still alive (including persons never incarcerated plus ever incarcerated).
* Among persons age 21, the prevalence rate was 1.510%, obtained by dividing 1,474 (column 6) by 97,646 (column 1 minus columns 3 and 5, plus 1,474), times 100%.
Prevalence rates for other birth cohorts were calculated using similar procedures. For example, to estimate the percent of persons age 31 in 2001 who had ever gone to prison, the calculations were applied to the 1970 birth cohort. However, the rates of first incarceration (column 4) and mortality (column 2) used in the calculations were unique to the birth cohort. (Note the differences between Appendix tables 2 and 3.)