XVITHE PROSPECTS FOR PEACE
Theyear 1916 closes in peace discussion. There has always seemed to me to be a likelihood that the war, the khaki and the guns, the gallant men and the sacred graves alike would be snowed over with papers and eventually almost lost sight of. Some eloquent German pastor cried out in a war sermon—
“White snow, white snow, fall, fall for seven weeks; all may’st thou cover, far and wide, but never England’s shame; white snow, white snow, never the sins of England.”
Our attitude would be rather: Never the sins of Germany. But even they must becovered at last. And the snow which the pastor asked for has begun to fall, blown by a somewhat gusty westerly wind.
It is America that is sending it across and I imagine that Americans would be specially interested what Russians think of the prospects for peace.
The problem of peace as it affects Russia differs somewhat from the problem as it affects France and Britain. It is well to keep in view the central facts.
Germany made war on Russia and showed herself ready to sacrifice Russia on the altar of her own greatness. The Kaiser so far from being on friendly terms with the Tsar, set out to despoil the Tsar of tracts of territory. Russia being an autocracy much more depended on the Tsar and his ministers than on the Duma or the voice of the people manifested in the press. He answered War with War. As far as can beascertained no attempt was made by so-called “Germans at court” to stave off war or make a pact with Germany and sacrifice France. Several large German landowners sold their estates and returned to the Fatherland before the war broke out, for they knew the cash was coming. Germany did not wish to come to an understanding with Russia before July, 1914. Germany thought it more profitable to sacrifice the Russians than to share with them power in Europe.
The German people confident in the possession of an enormous armament and of a genius for organisation which put them first and the rest nowhere, despised Russia. Russia’s friendship was not worth striving to obtain. There were admirable foundations for building a German-Russian friendship of a most lucrative kind, deep German roots in finance, commerce, government and administrationand blood ties and inter-marriages amongst important German and Russian families, but it was thought to be more profitable to fight than to be friends.
Doubtless a German victory would have increased the profits of many pseudo-Russian merchant houses. But from the Imperial point of view it should be borne in mind that there is probably not the slightest doubt or vagueness in the Tsar’s mind, and there has not been since the outbreak of war. The Kaiser has not only injured but has insulted Russia. There is a quarrel which can only be happily settled by the Germans being beaten utterly in the field.
The Russian people ratified the decision of the Tsar. There was a very great unanimity, doubtless revolutionary Russia was glad to be fighting for the same cause as republican France and free England. The war has been called all manner of thingspleasing from a liberal point of view, a war to protect small nations, a war against militarism, a war of progress against reaction. But fundamentally it is a quarrel. The press can say what it likes and theorists may theorise in terms interesting or not interesting to those at the head of affairs. But they for their part know one thing clearly, that it is a quarrel—it does not matter how people justify it to their consciences as long as they co-operate heartily in the great task of defeating the enemy.
The war, however, goes on a long time and there have been many blunders and scandals. The political extremists care for one thing more than for defeating Germany and that is for their political game at home whatever it may be. It has occurred to them—cannot the war be made the means of overthrowing the autocracy as such, by making ministers responsible to the Duma insteadof to the Emperor as heretofore. And since the Russian retreat of 1915 a large political game with important possibilities has developed. Political war of a kind has raged unceasingly and rages now.
This has played a little into German hands and had it not been for the complete, steadfast and unwavering hostility of the Tsar towards Germany, Russia would have succumbed to the seductions of internal strife. Germany as it is, hopes steadily for revolution in Russia—for a nation divided against itself cannot stand.
All through 1916 a rumour, however, has been persistently spread by word of mouth that the Tsar was likely to sign a separate peace. Every scandal that could damage the name of the Tsar has been repeated and magnified—the object being to obtain a transference of French and British sympathies from the Tsar and his ministers to theDuma and the progressive parties in the nation. Such a transference of sympathy would naturally endanger the stability of Russia and play into the German hands—quite apart from the question of the future of Russian internal government and control.
I cannot record here the gossip about Rasputin, Sturmer, the Empress, the falls of ministers. An immense amount of random rubbish is talked in Russia. Talking political scandal is one way of passing the time. The influence of Rasputin (a Siberian peasant and not a monk, not a priest, though he called himself Father and gave blessings) was greatly exaggerated. Some ladies took him up, as miracle-workers and magicians are taken up when they can be found. But he never had any influence with the Tsar. He seems to have been a curious character but he is now dead and the gossip about him will cease. I do not believe hewas working for Germany—as he had very little notion of what Germany was and could not even pronounce three consecutive words of his own language correctly. He was an obscure being and degraded even so. He prophesied that the Tsarevitch would lose his health if he, Rasputin, should cease to support him. I should say the boy’s health would improve, now that the black arts have been removed.
Sturmer, the ex-Premier, was the most unpopular prime-minister Russia has had. He, happily, has gone. And in Russia they never come back.
The fall of Sazonof was a shock. The motive for his retirement is said to be the Japanese agreement which he arranged. It was also said to be due to disagreement over Poland. The British diplomatic body has undoubtedly leaned on Sazonof and would like to bring him back. Our diplomacy inRussia during 1916 has, however, been in no way inspired. Its object seems to have been to play a political game, as at Salonika so at Petrograd, and to back the Duma at any cost. Buchanan has turned out to be an extraordinary speech maker; a contrast to the silent Russian Ambassador in London.
A cloud has been over the East obscuring it from our eyes. Happily however at the end of the year the cloud has lifted. Sturmer has gone. Rasputin is dead and Russia has announced clearly by the voice of her new minister and emphatically through the lips of the Tsar what she is fighting for.
The Tsar’s message to his army before Christmas has more significance in it than many parliamentary debates, speeches of ministers or theories of theorists, and I leave it fittingly as the close of this attempt at a political elucidation.
It is now more than two years since Germany in the midst of peace and after secretly preparing over a long period to enslave all the nations of Europe, suddenly attacked Russia and her faithful Ally France. This attack compelled England to join us and take part in our battle.The complete disdain which Germany showed for principles of international law as demonstrated by the violation of the neutrality of Belgium and her pitiless cruelty towards the peaceful inhabitants in the occupied provinces, little by little united the Great Powers of Europe against Germany and her ally Austria.Under the pressure of the German troops, which were well provided with the technical aids to warfare, Russia and France were compelled in the first year of the war to give up a portion of their territory, but this temporary reverse did not break the spirit of our faithful Allies, nor of you my gallant troops. In time, by the concentrated efforts of the Government, the disparity of our ownand the German technical resources was gradually reduced. But long before this time, even from the autumn of 1915, our enemy was experiencing difficulty in retaining the territory he had occupied, and in the spring and summer of the current year suffered a number of severe defeats and assumed the defensive along the whole front. His strength apparently is waning, but the strength of Russia and her gallant Allies continues to grow without failing.Germany is feeling that the hour of her complete defeat is near, and near also the hour of retribution for all her wrong-doings and for the violation of moral laws. Similarly, as in the time when her war strength was superior to the strength of her neighbours, Germany suddenly declared war upon them, so now, feeling her weakness, she suddenly offers to enter into peace negotiations and to complete them before her military talent is exhausted. At the same time she is creating a false impression about the strength of her Army by making use of hertemporary success over the Rumanians, who had not succeeded in gaining experience in the conduct of modern warfare.But if, originally, Germany was in the position to declare war and fall upon Russia and her Ally France, in her most favourable time, having strengthened in wartime the Alliance, among which is to be found all powerful England and noble Italy, this Alliance in its turn has also the possibility of entering into peace negotiations at such a time as it considers favourable for itself.The time has not yet arrived. The enemy has not yet been driven out of the provinces occupied by her. The attainment by Russia of the tasks created by the war—the regaining of Constantinople and the Dardanelles, as well as the creation of a free Poland from all three of her now incomplete tribal districts—has not yet been guaranteed.To conclude peace at this moment would mean the failure to utilise the fruits of theuntold trials of you, heroic Russian troops and Fleet. These trials, and still more the sacred memory of those noble sons of Russia who have fallen on the field of battle, do not permit the thought of peace until the final victory over our enemies.Who dares to think that he who brought about the beginning of the war shall have it in his power to conclude the war at any time he likes?I do not doubt that every faithful son of Holy Russia under arms who entered into the firing line, as well as those working in the interior for the increase of her war strength or the creation of her industry, will be convinced that peace can only be given to the enemy after he has been driven from our borders; and then only when, finally broken, he shall give to us and our faithful Allies reliable proof of the impossibility of a repetition of the treacherous attack and a firm assurance that he will keep to these promises. By the strength of these guarantees he will be bound to the fulfilment intimes of peace of those things which he undertakes.Let us be firm in the certainty of our victory and the Almighty will bless our standards and will cover them afresh with glory, and will give to us a peace worthy of your heroic deeds, my glorious troops—a peace for which future generations will bless your memory.Nicholas.
It is now more than two years since Germany in the midst of peace and after secretly preparing over a long period to enslave all the nations of Europe, suddenly attacked Russia and her faithful Ally France. This attack compelled England to join us and take part in our battle.
The complete disdain which Germany showed for principles of international law as demonstrated by the violation of the neutrality of Belgium and her pitiless cruelty towards the peaceful inhabitants in the occupied provinces, little by little united the Great Powers of Europe against Germany and her ally Austria.
Under the pressure of the German troops, which were well provided with the technical aids to warfare, Russia and France were compelled in the first year of the war to give up a portion of their territory, but this temporary reverse did not break the spirit of our faithful Allies, nor of you my gallant troops. In time, by the concentrated efforts of the Government, the disparity of our ownand the German technical resources was gradually reduced. But long before this time, even from the autumn of 1915, our enemy was experiencing difficulty in retaining the territory he had occupied, and in the spring and summer of the current year suffered a number of severe defeats and assumed the defensive along the whole front. His strength apparently is waning, but the strength of Russia and her gallant Allies continues to grow without failing.
Germany is feeling that the hour of her complete defeat is near, and near also the hour of retribution for all her wrong-doings and for the violation of moral laws. Similarly, as in the time when her war strength was superior to the strength of her neighbours, Germany suddenly declared war upon them, so now, feeling her weakness, she suddenly offers to enter into peace negotiations and to complete them before her military talent is exhausted. At the same time she is creating a false impression about the strength of her Army by making use of hertemporary success over the Rumanians, who had not succeeded in gaining experience in the conduct of modern warfare.
But if, originally, Germany was in the position to declare war and fall upon Russia and her Ally France, in her most favourable time, having strengthened in wartime the Alliance, among which is to be found all powerful England and noble Italy, this Alliance in its turn has also the possibility of entering into peace negotiations at such a time as it considers favourable for itself.
The time has not yet arrived. The enemy has not yet been driven out of the provinces occupied by her. The attainment by Russia of the tasks created by the war—the regaining of Constantinople and the Dardanelles, as well as the creation of a free Poland from all three of her now incomplete tribal districts—has not yet been guaranteed.
To conclude peace at this moment would mean the failure to utilise the fruits of theuntold trials of you, heroic Russian troops and Fleet. These trials, and still more the sacred memory of those noble sons of Russia who have fallen on the field of battle, do not permit the thought of peace until the final victory over our enemies.
Who dares to think that he who brought about the beginning of the war shall have it in his power to conclude the war at any time he likes?
I do not doubt that every faithful son of Holy Russia under arms who entered into the firing line, as well as those working in the interior for the increase of her war strength or the creation of her industry, will be convinced that peace can only be given to the enemy after he has been driven from our borders; and then only when, finally broken, he shall give to us and our faithful Allies reliable proof of the impossibility of a repetition of the treacherous attack and a firm assurance that he will keep to these promises. By the strength of these guarantees he will be bound to the fulfilment intimes of peace of those things which he undertakes.
Let us be firm in the certainty of our victory and the Almighty will bless our standards and will cover them afresh with glory, and will give to us a peace worthy of your heroic deeds, my glorious troops—a peace for which future generations will bless your memory.
Nicholas.
Postscript: 1915, 1916 and thenannus mirabiliswe are told. Wonderful things will happen in 1917. That means we hope and expect peace in 1917. Germany does also. The only peace possible, however, seems to be that of complete victory over the enemy. As a personal opinion I think it unlikely that complete victory will be obtained in 1917. It is also unlikely that a compromise peace will be effected. The bill against Germany is too heavy for the German nation to accept.
If instead of making a vague general offerof peace in December, 1916, Germany had offered thestatus quowe might possibly with great humiliation and vexation have all accepted the proposal. I think we should not, but we conceivably might. But Germany and her allies would have liked to keep some of the fruits of their victories and they could not then offerstatus quo. In all probability they will offer it later but then it will be too late as it is too late now in January, 1917. The bill against the Germans grows more heavy every day and every week the war is prolonged. Our chance of victory over them at the same time seems to increase as steadily. Next summer when the Germans have been routed in France and Belgium and Poland—shall we be more likely to consider a peace that would be acceptable to the Germans? I am sure not. Will Russia be more ready? Certainly not. Rather the demands on Germany will have increased.
I do not write this urging more war or craving for peace, but rather as a commentator.I am sorry for the Germans in a way. But I realise that in July-August, 1914, they chose a line of action from which followed a certain set of consequences if they failed.
We on the Entente side have not improved our cause. We have tried to fight the Germans in their way. We have seemed to behave abominably in Greece—have become entangled in an irrelevant political quarrel there. But then we have simply been doing the best we can, according to our ability. Not many idealists would rush to offer their life for our cause now and great numbers have lost interest in it. But the unsolvable quarrel remains. How long the war will last seems to depend chiefly on the length of time the German armies can hold out against the ever-increasing machinery of death and destruction which faces them.