In order that we may know what Germany is doing, these German organisations have been noted here. It would be impertinent, in both senses of the word, to compare or to criticise British methods. The problem of British reorganisation is being studied by experts and worked out by those in authority, and it is constantly expounded in official publications. But, without attempting to give individual opinions, one may quote some of authority.
"Great nations do not imitate." We may learn much in detail from the Germans; but Englishmen could not adopt the German system unless by first turning themselves into Prussians. Our people would never submit to Prussian methods of state control. Moreover all British experience shows that in this country such control would be disastrous. Yet competent authorities agree that immediate organisation is a necessity. It cannot be beyond the wit of Englishmen to devise means whereby British individual enterprise, common sense and self-reliance may work through methods of systematic organisation, combination, united action. From the friends of Britain everywhere comes the same warning. It is most appropriate to conclude with one uttered by a South American of unimpeachable authority, Don Pedro Cosio, former Uruguayan Finance Minister, who recently represented the Republic of Uruguay in this country. In a report to his government on the organisation of labour in the United Kingdom he writes, "The nation which is the first to organise its industry for the commercial campaign will be the one which will occupy the forefront in foreign markets."
"Economic War":—This reiterated German phrase is not mere metaphor. The Germans pursued in peace the operations of war. To them commerce meant not merely the pursuit of trade in peaceful rivalry with others, but a sustained effort to defeat and oust rivals and reduce to economic subjugation the lands penetrated. By plunging into open war, which was meant to continue and to confirm that process, the Germans have risked their previous gains. Their own weapons are turned against them. The economic character of the actual war and the efficacy of the economic weapon in the hands of the Allies become more and more evident. In the early months of the war this weapon was not wielded with thorough decision, and Germans beyond the Atlantic were able to carry on considerable European trade. But today the German merchant is striving to defend, against an overwhelming weight of maritime pressure, the ground which he had won through a generation of laborious and patient effort.
This economic struggle covers all the shores of all the Oceans. Its Latin-American phase has a special interest owing to the remarkable position attained in those lands by the Germans, the high value which they attach to that position, and their special efforts to maintain it under present difficulties. The most varied ingenuity is called into play to circumvent the barrier which now cuts off those countries from Germany. Present risks and losses are viewed as part of the inevitable waste of war, as an outlay deliberately incurred in the all-important task of holding open the gate through which, upon the conclusion of peace, the fruits of German industry are at once to pour in an irresistible stream, in exchange for those raw materials which are urgently needed to feed the industrial life of Germany after the war. This is the constant preoccupation of German business circles—the need of raw materials. And this is the reason why Latin America, the great source of raw materials, is courted with eager hope and anxious apprehension.
It is noticeable that a very large part of the cargoes condemned by the British Prize Court, as actually intended for the enemy though consigned to other pretended destinations, consists of goods from Latin America. For example, in August 1917 the Court condemned quantities of coffee, seized on a score of neutral steamers and ostensibly consigned to Scandinavian and Dutch merchants, but in fact shipped by a German firm at Santos for the parent house in Hamburg. Two months later, it was stated in court that nearly £400,000 worth of wool, shipped from Buenos Aires to the Swedish Army Administration at Gothenburg, had been seized by the British as being in fact destined for Leipzig. At the same time the Court condemned a number of manufactured rubber articles which had been found concealed in a passenger's clothing. On a later occasion, coffee and cocoa valued at nearly £200,000 were condemned, being part cargo of a Swedish ship bound from California to Gothenburg. They were consigned by a new and insignificant firm in San Francisco to various persons in Scandinavia, but were in fact on their way from Guatemala to Hamburg through Sweden.
The elaborate webs spun by German traders and revealed by intercepted correspondence were exposed in the Prize Court. Their methods were to find persons in neutral countries as nominal consignees, to act as intermediaries for getting the goods to Germany; to set up bogus companies for the same purpose; to use false names, or names of persons having no genuine interest in the consignment, and to manufacture false documents in order to give the appearance of neutral business. This was done to evade capture by deceiving the belligerent searchers. In some instances these methods succeeded. Quantities of coffee, consigned to Scandinavia, managed to elude the allied warships and reach Hamburg.
These are cases of import into Germany. The reverse process, export from Germany through neutrals, follows similar lines. German goods, falsely labelled and described as Swiss or Dutch or Scandinavian manufactures, have found their way across the Atlantic in neutral ships.
The Post Office has also served as a channel of secret trade. Pictures in the Press have exhibited the odd ingenuity of these devices: how coffee from Brazil to Germany was found concealed in rolls of newspapers, and how thin slabs of rubber were sent by post as photographs, also how quantities of jewellery have been despatched from Germany for South America in letters and in bundles of samples or journals. Goods so sent from Germany through the Post Office are mostly such as combine small bulk with high value—especially drugs and jewellery.
These partial examples, although each instance may seem small enough, indicate collectively a good deal of enemy trade which has found devious routes under stress of war. These manœuvres may seem at first sight merely trivial curiosities or at all events to have no more than ephemeral importance, since they were improvised to overcome temporary obstacles. But, apart from their intrinsic interest as episodes in one phase of the war and as evidence of the efficacy of Sea Power, these devices merit practical attention in view of proposals to fasten economic fetters upon Germany by the terms of peace, and in view of the odium which may tell against German commerce for years to come. German business men are preparing to meet these difficulties by continuing the method of exporting through neutral agents, and are proposing in some cases to transport to a neutral country the work of completing manufacture, in order that goods so produced may appear to be indisputably of non-German origin; and the Foreign Trade Department at Berlin has advised German merchants to employ, for some years after the war, travellers and agents who can pass as French or English. It would be unwise to underrate any instance of German inventive persistency.
Before the United States came into the war, that country was the channel of much German trade with Latin America. That road is now closed. The United States Government has gone further. It refuses coal in North American ports to ships proceeding from South America to neutral countries in Europe, unless the innocence of the cargo can be conclusively proved. This regulation shows that the United States authorities have knowledge that the ultimate destination of much South American cargo, particularly from the Argentine Republic, has been Germany. The blockade becomes more stringent through the co-operation of the United States and of Brazil, and through the action of the statutory list of "persons and firms with whom persons and firms in the United Kingdom are prohibited from trading." British commerce is a big and living thing, and the prohibition hits very hard any firm placed on this Black List. One finds here not only Teutonic names, but also innocent-sounding Latin names: for if a Latin-American is found to be acting as agent or cloak for a German trader, he finds himself pilloried on the Black List beside the German. There are obvious ways of evasion. The name of a clerk or door-keeper or a lady type-writer may appear as consignee. A varied ingenuity has to be met by constant watchfulness, and the list is regularly altered and kept up to date. The Black List has been much criticised for omissions, which are sometimes due to motives of expediency. But the bitter complaints about its injustice are unsolicited testimony to its efficacy. A striking example of its working was manifested in September 1917. After the outbreak of war, such of the Chilian nitrate works as were owned by Germans were unable to sell their nitrate or even to obtain jute bags, the supply of which is in British control. The unsold stocks went on accumulating, until one by one the German nitrate works were compelled to close down. Long negotiations between Santiago and Berlin found at last a remedy for this waste. It was agreed that the large deposits of Chilian gold in Germany should be set against the German-owned nitrate in Chile. The Chilian Government bought the nitrate, and paid the German owners by drafts on Berlin, which were met out of the Chilian money deposits in Germany. Thus Germany received Chilian gold in exchange for the inaccessible nitrate, while the Chilian Government received nitrate in exchange for its inaccessible gold. Chile then sold the nitrate for American gold to the largest manufacturer of explosives in the United States. Thus, one result of the blockade and the statutory list is that this German nitrate goes to make munitions, to be hurled at the Germans on the French front from American guns. The German Government, by sanctioning this sale of explosive material to its enemies, gave evidence of its earnest desire to stand well with Chile. On the other hand, Germany was impelled to this agreement in order to obviate grave financial loss to Germans and especially to save a big Hamburg firm from disaster.
The active entry of Brazil into the war has in great part superseded the action of the statutory list in that country: for Brazil has taken decisive measures towards Germans within her borders. All enemy enterprises are in the hands of government receivers. All contracts for purchase of coffee or other Brazilian products by Germans are null and void; and in cases where payments had been made by the German purchasers, all such payments must be handed over to the official receivers. The United States also publishes a Black List of firms with whom her citizens are forbidden to deal. Evasion of allied watchfulness becomes more and more difficult: yet ingenious, and sometimes successful efforts are made to find loopholes in the wall of the blockade.
There are now in Buenos Aires nearly 150 Turkish firms—Levantines of every denomination, Mohammedan, Christian, Jewish. Some of these are long-established and well-reputed houses. But most of them have sprung up during the war. Some of them, starting with exiguous capital, have made large fortunes in a year or two of trade. This has been done by supplying to German black-listed firms goods imported direct from Manchester and Bradford. Through the close co-operation of the German bank with German trade, these Syrians and Armenians are enabled, by the Germans standing behind them, to pay cash against documents in place of the usual sixty to ninety days' credit, and thus have a great advantage over the British or allied trader. The British authorities now permit export only to certain registered Turkish firms. The restriction does something to limit the abuse of this kind of trading.
Besides these ingenious efforts to keep open communication with Europe, there is another side of the commercial war. In the neutral states of Latin America the German business man is as ubiquitous and energetic as ever, nay more so as he has greater difficulties to contend with. So far as he can, he sells from accumulated stocks of German goods, for the German importing houses before the war had gathered great stocks, especially in Chile. Where this resource fails, he repairs his stock by buying anywhere. Up to April 1917 he bought largely in New York. Now he buys where he can and what he can—American goods, French goods, British goods—anything to hold the market until the ocean shall be free once more to German keels carrying German goods.
From the Argentine Republic 6000 young Englishmen came home to serve Britain on the fields of France. The young German would have found difficulty in getting home, even had he wished to do so; so for the most part he stayed in the River Plate. Other Germans have been released from military service and sent out as commercial travellers; for the German Government regards this too as National War Service. Thus today there are three German commercial men in the River Plate to one Englishman. The resources and confidence of the German traders are surprising. They have bought great quantities of wool in the River Plate—not so much indeed as is generally supposed; for German emissaries, in order to force up the price of wool to the Allies, have methodically made specious but fictitious offers of high prices to sheep-farmers all over the Argentine Republic. Yet, even so, German traders hold large quantities both of wool and of grain. These have been purchased partly for selling at enhanced prices on the spot, but principally with a view to after-war trade and the supply of raw materials to Germany. These purchases are proof of firm belief in the future. Moreover, both in Chile and in Argentina the interned German ships await their after-war cargoes for Europe. And when the Chilian or Argentine asks whether the German will be free to use these ships when peace comes, the Englishman cannot reply. The ships are there, proof of Germany's future power to trade.
And the Germans are active not only in trade. They have learnt from British example that the road to business in Latin America is the investment of capital. And, strange as it may seem, the German has peculiar opportunities of investment at the present time. Such limited trade as can be carried on yields great profits. There is difficulty about remitting funds to Germany; and in any case "victory war loans" and other investments in the Fatherland may seem less attractive than investments in those Latin-American lands which look forward to rapidly expanding prosperity after the war. Accordingly, the German merchant is not only buying raw materials; he is also taking a share in the movement of home manufactures which now offers peculiar opportunities to foreign enterprise. Moreover, German firms in Buenos Aires have invested largely in short loans to the Argentine Government. Besides these private investments, which, like all German activities, have their official side, loans have been repeatedly pressed on the Argentine Government, ostensibly by neutral financiers (first in the United States and afterwards in Spain) but in fact by Germany, evidently for immediate political as well as for ulterior economic objects. These offers have been declined. A German loan openly offered to Uruguay has also been refused.
Obviously, the whole story of German war-efforts in Latin America cannot yet be told. Enough has been said to indicate the character and the intensity of those efforts. For this far western front Germany has mobilised a business army, specially trained for the nature of the country and for the kind of operations wherein it is to be engaged. These efforts and aspirations are best illustrated by a recent utterance from the Hamburg branch of the League for Germanism abroad:—"We should like to insist that South America, the main field of our activity for many years past, constitutes a great sphere. Wide areas, with great possibilities of development, but little cultivated hitherto, are waiting to be opened up. It must be our business to employ here all our strength in order to retain and to make useful to ourselves these countries with their markets and raw materials. What we have to do is toarm for the Peaceand to collect money, in order to be able immediately to act with energy—with our whole strength and with adequate resources."
In this "arming for the Peace" there is one weapon which demands special mention, namely the influencing of opinion by printed propaganda.
The German mobilisation of the Press is a vast business controlled by the State. Upon the outbreak of war this organisation undertook the special work of war propaganda through two newly formed departments: (1) Press Office for influencing neutrals, (2) News Service for Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries. This institution of a special Ibero-American service proves the prominence given to the work in the Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking lands. The last words obviously include the Peninsula as well as Latin America. Nor can the propaganda carried on in Spain be dissociated from that in Spanish America. "Spain is the way to South America," writes a Spaniard discussing this very point. The popular illustrated Spanish printsA.B.C.andBlanco y Negro, which carry on a vehement Germanophil propaganda, are carefully perused, as coming from "home," by Spanish emigrants throughout Latin America, who thus become, half unwittingly, disseminators of German views and of belief in German victory.
For the first object of this propaganda is to represent Germany as invincible in war. This military propaganda is an essential part of economic efforts. The Germans hold up a picture of German sagacity, system, thoroughness, efficiency. They desire to impress as well as to persuade. They know the effect produced by their victory in 1870. Credit and confidence are the greatest of commercial assets; and in this case economic credit is to rest upon belief in military strength.
In South America, as in Spain, the method is to capture the press, and so disseminate German war-news, pro-German articles, photographs and cartoons. But it was not enough to control or inspire existing newspapers. In many capitals the Germans started new journals, printed in the vernacular. Naturally, the chief effort was made in Buenos Aires. Early in the war, a German organ,La Unión, was founded, in order that the Porteño, as he walked the street or travelled by train or tramway, might have the German case daily and forcibly presented to him. Throughout Latin America, a dozen or more of newspapers have been thus founded for propaganda purposes, some of them illustrated by effective cartoons. The strangest examples of this journalistic campaign are two Turkish newspapers,La Bandera Otomanaof Buenos Aires andO Otomanoof São Pãolo, which urge the cause of the Central Powers among Orientals in those countries. Besides these purely German efforts, a host of newspapers, many of them the local journals of country towns, serve the German cause throughout Latin America, the newspaper offices sometimes acting as distributing agencies for periodicals printed in Germany in the Spanish tongue.
For, besides German and Germanophil periodicals published in America, others are produced in Germany for circulation in those countries. The number and the excellent quality of these Spanish productions of the German printing-press are remarkable.La Revista de la Exportación Alemanais a most effective organ for German business, exhibiting side by side, in pictures and letter-press, triumphs in the field and triumphs of industry. The monthlyMensajero de Ultramarand the weeklyHeraldo de Hamburgohave been already mentioned. Hamburg also produces the well-known weekly picture-paper,Welt in Bild, with letter-press in twelve languages. These well-written and well-printed newspapers are widely circulated in Latin America in order to uphold the German cause.
In addition to these permanent publications, special war periodicals are issued, every one of them a German trumpet. Not least of these is the comic paperLa Guasa Internacional, which holds up the Allies to ridicule and abhorrence in cartoons, squibs and sketches. A diary of the war with a review of political and military movements is given in the illustrated monthlyCrónica de la Guerra. Another chronicle isLa Guerra Europea Mirada por un Sud-Americano, a piece of war propaganda written by a Latin-American soldier, Señor Guerrero, who was, until recently, Peruvian military attaché at Berlin. But perhaps the most effective of these war periodicals isLa Gran Guerra en cuadros, which presents, in a series of pictures, the war as meant to be seen by neutral eyes. All these periodicals attribute economic blunders and financial errors or weakness to the Allies, sometimes making adroit use of British or French self-criticisms: on the other hand, they magnify German economic strength and organisation. This main object appears in an article on "After-war commercial relations between Spanish America and Europe" published inEl Mensajero de Ultramar, which argues that Germany will suffer least of all the belligerents from the effects of the war; and that afterwards she will be the best purchaser and also the most capable provider for Latin America. Such is the reiterated refrain of a host of periodical publications.
In addition to periodicals, Germany pours over the Spanish-and Portuguese-speaking world a constant inundation of fly-leaves, photographs, pamphlets, books and miscellaneous war literature, preaching German strength, efficiency, humanity, and even the democratic character of German institutions.
What is the result? Has German propaganda succeeded in moulding Latin-American opinion concerning the war? Opinion in those countries has been moved by an argument more potent than all the German propaganda, and that is the German submarine. The German offers to South America with one hand persuasive self-eulogies, while with the other hand he sinks her unarmed trading ships and drowns her sailors. Unrestricted submarine warfare and the barring of zones to navigation have drawn Brazil, by successive steps, into active belligerency, and have done much to bring about rupture of relations and declarations of war by other Latin-American republics. Yet it would be a mistake to conclude that German propaganda has entirely failed. The Germans certainly think it worth while to continue it. The pavements of Buenos Aires are sometimes ankle-deep with pro-neutrality and anti-ally leaflets. But it is principally through the persistent and reiterated voice of the newspaper press, aided by the unremitting personal efforts of every German and every friend of Germany, that she wages this secondary warfare, this strategy of moral influence, which mobilises public opinion, diffuses impressions, colours events, creates an atmosphere.
A circular was lately issued to the German League in Chile urging that, if propaganda could delay the severance of diplomatic relations between Chile and Germany, even for a few weeks, it would help Germany and her allies to an extent of several millions, and cause damage to her enemies to the same amount. As the situation becomes more critical for Germany, her propaganda redoubles in intensity. "Public opinion," says Napoleon, "is a force invisible, mysterious, irresistible." The Germans recognise that force, and have done all that was in their power to sway it to their side. German persuasiveness has not wholly failed. But in this war of words one decisive word has yet to be spoken, and that word is Victory.
Yet military victory is not the final word in the economic struggle nor in the propaganda used in its support. The German South American Institute urgently emphasises the need of a more thorough and more stable system of German news supply: and official steps are now being taken in Germany to consolidate and extend such a system, in order to provide a permanent support of German influence in the future. The present aim of her propaganda is not only to exhibit victories, but to prepare for possible defeat, while representing Germany as morally invincible and as able, in any event, not only to hold her own, but to extend and strengthen her position.
It has been necessary to speak at some length of the direction taken by German activities with regard to Latin America. In order to preserve due perspective, something should be said about activities on the part of others. For the German has no monopoly of intelligence and energy in these matters. Indeed, the methods of the various German Leagues for Latin America mentioned in the second chapter were prompted, in part at least, by observation of what was being done elsewhere, particularly in France and the United States: for all these matters are carefully watched in Germany, and are described in minute detail in the publications of those leagues.
An American historian remarks that Europe and the United States have lately re-discovered Latin America; and a German observer describes South America as the Fair Helen of the business world—her charms admired and her favours sought by all industrial nations. These epigrams point to a comparatively recent movement, which might be described as the Recognition of Latin America. This is not a sudden new departure, for relations between those countries and Europe have been continuous. But, in the past, there has been much indifference and ignorance regarding these matters, except among those directly concerned in them. In recent years a fresh spirit has arisen, an enlivened interest and a desire for better knowledge and more cordial intercourse. The movement is natural and spontaneous rather than official. It owes little—at all events in Europe—to governments and chanceries, although these recognise its value and give it their countenance.
It was pointed out above that French thought and French example have always exercised a profound influence on the Latin-American republics. Until recently, this influence made itself felt without much conscious observation or deliberate activity on the part of Frenchmen. Indeed, there was sometimes a disposition, which was not unknown in England also, to view the Latin-American in a satirical light. A changed attitude in France—a desire for cordial and equal intercourse—took definite shape in the formation of theComité France-Amériquein 1906 under the presidency of M. Gabriel Hanotaux. The objects of this society are to develop economic, intellectual and artistic relations between France and the nations of the New World, to attract students and travellers to France from the two Americas and welcome them cordially, to encourage every means of making France and America known to one another. The society soon numbered over 1000 members, and proceeded to found branches in Latin-American capitals, as well as in the United States and Canada. It publishes a monthly review entitledFrance-Amérique, dealing with every branch of life in the two Americas, and has formed a sub-section known asLigue française de propagande, to spread in America a knowledge of French education and art, as well as French industrial products. The society has published a number of books concerning the history and present conditions of American countries.
The same year, 1906, saw the foundation of theGroupement des Universités et grandes Écoles de France pour les relations avec l'Amérique Latine. This academic association, though it does not ignore the business side of foreign relations, is naturally more concerned with educational and intellectual matters. Its activities appear in the visits of French professors and lecturers to Latin-American capitals, the reception of Latin-American students in France, the study of Spanish-American history, literature and archaeology in French Universities, and in one apparently trivial but very practical detail—the reduction by one half of French Steamship Companies' fares to Latin-American students visiting France.
The economic side of this French movement appears in the institution of a "Latin-American week," a kind of festival for propaganda and intercourse, to be celebrated annually in some great business centre of France. The inaugural seven days' meeting was held at Lyons in December 1916. Sixty Latin-American delegates were present, and were met by 200 French delegates from Paris, among them leading men representing every side of French life. The conference discussed every aspect of the relations between France and Latin America, and the means of extending and improving those relations.
The cordiality of intercourse finds its most pleasant manifestation in the frequent visits to South America of distinguished Frenchmen—among them have been Anatole France and Clemenceau—who carry messages of sympathy across the Atlantic to crowded and enthusiastic gatherings in Latin-American cities.
In the United States this double movement, intellectual and economic, is still more marked. Latin-American history and economics are regularly taught in the universities, and prizes are provided for essays on historical works on those lands. Harvard University has a special endowment for Latin-American studies, an Instructor in Latin-American history and a South American Library of 10,000 volumes; and the University, in order to encourage the entry of Latin-American students, dispenses with the use of the English language in the Entrance Examination in certain cases. The Jesuit traveller, Father Zahm, better known by his pen-name of Mozans, has presented his South American library to Notre Dame University, Indiana. The Rector of the Leland Stanford Junior University places at the disposal of the University his library of 7000 volumes on Brazil. Scholarships are granted in the Universities to Latin-American women students. In the year 1913, Latin-American students in American universities numbered 813. American scientific missions are at work in Latin America, as well as missions of teachers to study educational methods in those lands and to invite return visits to the United States. One hears, moreover, of a Spanish-American Athenæum at Washington, 2000 institutions teaching the Spanish language, 1700 clubs formed for the study of Latin America, new magazines dealing exclusively with those regions, Argentine men of letters received with an honoured public welcome, an Inter-American Round Table, founded by representative ladies of New York, who propose to hold annual meetings of women, to take place successively in the capitals of the American Republics.
This educational and social movement accompanies and supports a great business effort directed towards Latin America. The latter has an obvious bearing on the subject of Pan-Americanism, which is treated in a later chapter: but it is convenient to indicate the facts here, as forming part of a general movement of approach by other peoples towards Latin America. The American business effort assumed concrete form at the beginning of the war, when the United States Government invited the Finance Ministers and leading bankers of all the American Republics to a Financial conference at Washington. All but Mexico and Haiti accepted. The conference met in March 1915. A committee was appointed for each republic, and their reports were submitted to a joint committee. The decisions so reached were unanimously accepted by the whole conference. They recommended a standard gold coin for the whole of America, also unification of regulations concerning classification of merchandise, customs, consular certificates and invoices, trade marks and kindred matters. Questions of banking facilities, transport and credit were also discussed.
Furthermore, it was decided to institute an International High Commission, which should continue permanently the work of the conference, sitting in rotation in the capitals of the several republics. This commission met first in Buenos Aires in April 1916, and decided to create a Central Executive Council to consist of three members, namely the chairman, vice-chairman and secretary of the section representing whatever country should be at the time the headquarters of the High Commission. On the motion of Argentina it was unanimously agreed that the headquarters for the first year should be Washington. Thus the first Central Executive Council consisted of three North Americans, the three heads of the United States section of the International High Commission.
During the last three years, North American capital has been poured into Latin America, notably into Brazil, although perhaps the most striking instance is the acquisition of three huge and profitable mining properties in Chile, producing copper and iron. American commissioners are studying the field; direct steamship communication between the two continents has been extended; and American banks have been opened in many South American cities. It is remarkable how large a space is given day by day to Latin America in the Daily Commerce Report and List of Trade Opportunities published by the United States Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Meanwhile the Pan-American Union, housed in a magnificent palace at Washington, labours unceasingly to draw closer the political, economic, social, and intellectual relations.
But in other directions, indeed in all directions, Latin-American economic and international relations are opening out and finding new roads. Canada has earned a high reputation by her industrial enterprises, and Canadian banks are being established in South American capitals. The Dutch too are opening banks and preparing to extend their trade. Japan, also, is drawing closer to this new Europe of the western hemisphere. Japanese immigration is increasing, not only to the republics of the Pacific coast, but also to Southern Brazil. The Japanese steamship service to the west coast has been extended, and lines of Japanese ships are now running, also, to Buenos Aires and Rio. Industrial Japan aims at substituting for German trade the production of goods formerly imported from Germany, and Japanese pioneers are travelling in South America to study and prepare the ground. Japanese relations with Chile are particularly close and friendly. Chile can supply iron and copper, which Japan wants; and in return Chile is prepared to take Japanese cotton and silk. Kaolin or china clay was lately discovered in Chile: a specimen was sent to Japan for trial; and, as a result, a china factory has been started in Chile, the skilled labour being provided by Japanese artisans. Truly, the whole world is drawing nearer to South America.
What of the British position? The British "re-discovered" Latin America more than a century ago. England, as well as France, was the school of Miranda and Bolívar. England provided the sinews of war for the emancipation of these lands, and the British legion which served under Bolívar was saluted by him, on the battle-field, asSalvadores de mi patria. South America honours the name of Cochrane among the heroic figures which stand upon the threshold of independence: nor has she forgotten how Canning's generous statesmanship helped her to secure the fruits of victory. One may read, in great part, the history of the struggle for independence in Memoirs written by Englishmen who took part in it. And in succeeding years the British held in those countries a peculiar position of gratitude and respect. The first Argentine foreign treaty was with Great Britain. Uruguay owes her independence, in part at least, to the intervention of British diplomacy, which was held in equal honour at Buenos Aires and in Rio. The founder of the Pacific Steam Navigation Company was an American, who, failing to find support in his own country, went to England, and there launched his great scheme of maritime trade on the Pacific coast. The same American, William Wheelwright, was the founder of the Argentine railway system, through English capital and enterprise. Over 1000 millions sterling of British capital are invested in Latin America in the form of government loans and corporate enterprises whose capital can be counted, without reckoning private investments, such as ownership of land. Total British investments in the Argentine alone exceed 500 millions sterling. The British created the Chilian nitrate industry, in which Chilian and British ownership are now about equal. Our fathers and grandfathers dared much, risked much, lost much and gained much in Latin America, and have left us an unrivalled reputation for good work and steady integrity.Palabra de Inglés, "the word of an Englishman," is still a proverb throughout those countries.
Yet there is truth in the remark of a German author that the British have made no "cultural efforts" in Latin America. They are viewed with respect rather than with an intimate cordiality which they have not sought. It has been said that an Argentine takes off his hat to an Englishman, but tucks his arm in that of a Frenchman. This absence of deliberate effort does not mean the absence of moral influence. An official of the Pan-American Union remarked to the present writer that the English had done a "wonderful work" in Argentina by introducing and spreading the game of football, which had taught lessons of fair play, voluntary disciplined combination and good humour in defeat. The Boy Scout movement has taken root throughout Latin America, holding up everywhere in the spirit of its work and in local Scout papers a high standard of honour, truthfulness and conduct. These are some examples of a widespread influence exerted by certain sides of English life and character. Yet a certain atmosphere of aloofness still envelopes the British in Latin America, and this attitude is reflected in England. The languages and the history of those lands have not received their due in our schools and colleges. It has been comparatively rare to find in this country a keen and well-informed interest in matters wherein our own people have had a far greater share than our neighbours on the European continent or in the United States. What is wanting is a breath of enthusiasm for a most picturesque past, a present situation of absorbing interest, and the prospect of a future which promises boundless possibilities.
Yet the movement of recognition is making way among us. The number of descriptive books published in recent years concerning those countries points to a reviving interest. Our schools are providing Spanish classes: our universities are founding professorships or lectureships in the Spanish and Portuguese languages, and the study of Latin-American history is finding admission to its due academic place. We are beginning to perceive that the life of those countries touches us closely, and that some knowledge and thoughtful interest concerning them should be part of the mental equipment of an educated Englishman. Moreover, the recent establishment of an Anglo-Spanish Society and also of an Anglo-Portuguese and Brazilian Society indicates a growing disposition for sympathetic and reasonable intercourse with the peoples of the Ibero-American lands.
It would be out of place here to talk of this or that defect in British business methods or to suggest possible amendments. Such matters may be left to business men. Mr Herbert Gibson, in the fascinating address which he lately gave in King's College, London, sets the matter on a higher plane. "I do not think," he says, "it is so much a question of this or that system of weights and measures, or of the insularity of our classes of goods, as a question of a more intimate and sympathetic understanding between the peoples themselves. Trade can no doubt go on without such an understanding; but, where it exists, commercial as well as political, social and intellectual relations are strengthened. It seems to me that where our relations with South America have weakened or at least where they have not progressively increased, is in that man-to-man understanding and sympathy that opened the doors of all South America to our grandfathers."
El país de mañana, "the Country of Tomorrow." One may hear the proverb any day on the lips of Spaniard or Spanish-American in whimsical self-criticism concerning his own ways and those of his people and country. But the word applies in another sense to the Spanish-American republics. They are the countries of tomorrow, the lands of the future, the lands of promise, this score of Latin-American republics; for they are twenty in number. Owing to want of space and the comprehensive character of our subject, I have been obliged to speak of Latin America as a whole. This is not inappropriate, for Latin America does form a world in itself, as all Latin-Americans feel, and indicate in their intercourse with one another. Thus, one may quite rightly speak of Latin America as a whole, just as one used to speak of Europe as a whole. But this western world, which sprang from the Iberian Peninsula, is a group of twenty republics differing from one another in situation and character and, to some degree also, in ethnology and manner of language. These countries extend through every habitable latitude, and most of the republics contain within their own borders every habitable altitude. Their products are boundless, both in abundance and in variety, and these products might be multiplied indefinitely. Name any one of the republics, and you are naming a symbol of wealth, of existing wealth, and still more, of manifold future wealth.
Gast's pamphlet, summarised in the second chapter, speaks of eighty million people "reaching upward and now setting their feet on the first steps of their life-journey." The expression may seem a little inappropriate and, at first sight, even a little derogatory. But it is true: and, on reflection, no South American need feel hurt at this description, which is in fact a justification of the past history and present position of his country. These countries are young. They have known the turbulence of youth. Now they are pushing their way, vigorously enough, towards maturity and clearly developed form. The fact was distinctly stated by a Brazilian, lecturing lately in King's College, London, who said: "The Nineteenth Century was the age of experiment; the Twentieth Century will be the age of fulfilment." These countries still require interpretation to Europe. Hampered at their first start, at the epoch of emancipation, by the exhausting and confusing character of that long struggle, by want of political experience, by the ignorance of the masses and, in some parts, by ethnological difficulties, they were obliged to spend a generation or two in clearing up the aftermath of that revolution; and in most cases their political constitutions (although in form they are models of constitutional law) are in their actual working only now emerging from the stage of experiment, sometimes confused and shifting experiments, sometimes rough-and-ready expedients. For example, in the Argentine Confederation and also in the United States of Brazil, the relations between the Federal Government and the Governments of the States have not attained that regular equilibrium which prevails in the United States, an equilibrium which was there only procured at the cost of a tremendous civil war. In most of the republics the relations between the Executive and the Legislature have scarcely reached a stable adjustment. We should remember that Brazil only shook off the monarchical form of government in 1889, and that it was some years before that revolution was really completed. Again, in the republic best known to England, the Argentine Confederation, the multifarious and cosmopolitan mixture of immigration from all the Mediterranean lands has hardly yet coalesced to form a definite national type. The origin of these states, though superficially resembling that of the United States, was in fact fundamentally different. For every one of the thirteen British colonies of North America was, in a sense, grown up and a developed entity at the moment of emancipation, since they had all possessed local parliamentary constitutions of the British type from the beginning of their colonial days. The initial condition of the Latin-American states was much more formless and their early difficulties were much more complex.
Some of these lands show the character of youth in the tendency to imitation, the adoption of French and especially of Parisian ways, not realising how much better is a genuine native development than the imitation of even the best models. Another symptom of youth is the lavish and sometimes ostentatious spending of money. If the Spanish-American has money, he spends it like a schoolboy, and he likes a splash for his money. Another sign of youth is the rather exaggerated national or civicamour-propre, a lively touchiness concerning outside criticism—a sentiment which inclines one to be rather diffident and apologetic even about making such remarks as these. This is a local, not a racial characteristic in the South American, for the Spaniard is even more proudly indifferent than the Englishman concerning what the foreigner thinks.
These young states have hitherto acquiesced in their economic dependence upon Europe. European immigration (at least on the east coast), Government loans raised in Europe, provision of public utilities by European capital, importation of almost all manufactured articles from abroad—these have been to most South Americans the accepted conditions of life. Thus, all these republics felt a sharp and instant shock at the outbreak of the European war. The economic equilibrium was upset, and the machine ceased to work. The stream of European capital suddenly dried up: so also the stream of immigration. Indeed, the supply of labour in the Atlantic States, especially in the River Plate, dropped below the normal after Italy joined the Allies. Scarcity of shipping, together with the diversion to war purposes of all European energies, diminished the exportation from South America of all commodities not absolutely needed by the Allies for the prosecution of the war. Imports from Europe were restricted. Germany, which had ranked third among outside nations trading with the continent, dropped out altogether, with the exception of the devious and struggling efforts already noted. To the nations of South America what had seemed the natural and regular order of things was suddenly suspended. They were thrown upon their own resources; they were compelled to take stock of their position and to face an unprecedented situation. They must manage their finances without European help; they must provide their own labour. As to things hitherto imported from Europe, they must either provide these things themselves or go without. The shock was severe, but it must be allowed to have been a wholesome shock. It has stopped public over-borrowing and has put some check on extravagance of public spending. It has favoured private thrift and has compelled those who were perhaps over light-hearted and materialistic to take life more seriously. The Argentine family, which formerly provided separate motor-cars for father, mother and each son and daughter, has now to be content with one or none. The luxurious trip to Paris or London, with its corollary of mountainous shopping, is abandoned, and a more modest holiday is spent at the seaside or in the mountains at home. The daily story, flashed along the cables from Europe, of strife, of heroism, of self-sacrifice, conduces to reflection and grave judgment. Finally, the meaning of the struggle has been now brought home to every South American people. Every one of them is closely touched by the recent developments of maritime warfare. Every one is forced to come to a decision. Whatever that decision may be, whether it be for open war, or limited participation, or rupture of relations, or complete neutrality, that decision is expectantly watched by the whole world and adds its weight in the balance of the great trial. The effect must be a graver sense of national responsibility, a more sober consciousness of national dignity.
The economic recovery, which followed the first shock, favoured this national consolidation and development. Imports diminished, whereas the urgent demand of the Allies for foodstuffs and raw materials soon produced, in most of the states, a great expansion in the value, if not in the volume of exports. Hence a favourable trade balance and an increase in wealth. These conditions encouraged that movement of industrial enterprise which everywhere sought to supply, by the exploitation of home products and by the development of home manufactures, the needs which had been hitherto supplied by importation from abroad. Examples, taken mostly from the A.B.C. countries, will best illustrate this industrial movement, which has been one of the most notable effects of the war.
Argentina felt deeply the shock of August 1914. The outbreak of war fell like a bomb in the midst of a serious financial depression, due to speculation, extravagance and over-borrowing. The trouble was intensified by drought and by two bad harvests, and more recently by widespread strikes accompanied by destructive violence. But the crisis has compelled the Argentines to rely upon themselves, to restrict extravagances and to push forward the industrial development of their own resources. Thus, the diminution in the supply of English coal has led to the search for native coal, to the use of native petroleum and native fire-wood. Lessened timber imports mean the exploitation of native forests. A considerable quantity of native wool is now spun and woven in the country, and home manufacture generally is increasing. Thus the country is richer and more industrious than ever before. It is true that this wholesome recovery is not yet reflected in the national finances, which are still disordered by extravagance, over-borrowing, improvident budgets, and now by the diminished receipts from customs. However, one very interesting event deserves special mention—the credit or loan granted by the Argentine Government to the Allies for the purchase of the present harvest. Since Argentine Government loans are mostly held in Western Europe, the debt can be discharged with equal benefit to both sides, by simply taking over the obligations of the Argentine Government on this side of the Atlantic. Even more remarkable is the spontaneous offer made to Great Britain by the Uruguayan Government of a large credit for the purchase of the Uruguayan harvest. Thus, these two debtor nations have actually become creditors to Europe, and are proceeding to gather into national ownership a large part of the national debt. Uruguay is taking another and most striking step towards economic consolidation. She is preparing to avail herself of the growing national wealth and the increased value of the Uruguayan dollar in order to buy up enterprises owned by foreigners within her territory, particularly the railways, which are mostly in British hands. It may here be noted that this economic movement in Uruguay coincides with a radical and democratic reform of the constitution, a nearer intimacy with her Latin neighbours, an approach to the United States, and also closer relations with Europe through the abandonment of neutrality and the signature of unconditional treaties of arbitration with France and Great Britain.
In Brazil, the economic recovery, the industrial development and the general movement of national consolidation are very notable. For the entry of Brazil into the war has added a tone of effort, of serious determination, of grave responsibility to this combined movement. At the outbreak of war the great diminution in the export of coffee, which had constituted nearly half of the total exports from Brazil, hit the country very hard. But the energetic exploitation of other resources, together with a partial resumption of coffee exports, has made good the national loss. The Allies wanted rubber and manganese, which Brazil can supply. The Allies wanted foodstuffs; and Brazil has become, with almost incredible rapidity, an exporter of meat and of vegetable foods. Coal ceased to come from Europe. The result has been that Brazil is striving to supply her own needs by working her southern coal seams, although at the present time want of transport is a serious obstacle to these efforts. Manufactures of all kinds are increasing. Brazilian cotton particularly is now largely woven at home, and this textile industry alone now employs about 100,000 persons. Brazil is also taking more and more into her own hands her coastal and river navigation, and is extending her shipping lines to foreign ports. The result of this industrial and commercial revival has been that, notwithstanding the decrease in the matter of coffee, Brazilian exports now outstrip their pre-war value, and they represent a far more wholesome and more promising distribution of the national resources, since there is no longer an overwhelming preponderance of one commodity raised in one state. Moreover, notwithstanding the burdens of participation in the war, Brazil has achieved by means of careful economy and retrenchment, a wholesome reorganisation of the Federal finances. The war has not prevented the punctual resumption, on the promised date, of cash payment of interest on the foreign debt. The country presents a wholesome aspect of national efficiency and national dignity.
It may be added here that the industrial movement in Brazil has been greatly aided by the investment of North American capital, particularly in meat-freezing establishments. It is perhaps premature to think of Brazil, with her vast and undeveloped pastoral, agricultural and forestal possibilities, as an industrial country. But the possession of large deposits of iron indicates great industrial possibilities in the future. One difficulty, the soft character of Brazilian coal, may possibly be overcome, whether by import of fuel or by the adaptation of mechanical appliances.
Chile, like her neighbours, felt the first shock. Germany, the principal purchaser of nitrates, was cut off; and the republic found by sudden experience, how dangerous and unsound was the system whereby the national finances depended largely on export duties levied upon one commodity. The administration rose to the necessities of the case: taxation was distributed upon a more scientific and normal basis, and very soon the war situation began to pour wealth into the lap of the republic. Nitrate, needed by the Allies for munitions, reached its highest price and its maximum production. Copper—now perhaps the most precious of metals—followed the same course. After-war conditions, particularly in regard to nitrate, are impossible to foresee. But Chile has had her lesson, not to depend on the continuance of what may be accidental conditions and not to build on the foundation of the market in one commodity. "The war," says a representative Chilian, "has brought us a certain prosperity and also something that is worth more than prosperity—common sense."
The industrial movement, which has been noted elsewhere, is being actively pushed forward in Chile, where indeed it dates from a time long before the war; for in Chile local manufactures are favoured by local conditions, namely, remoteness from Europe, a sturdy population, the possession of coal and metals, and, also, a very distinct and compact national character and national ambition, which owe little to recent European immigration. In 1914—just before the war—Chile possessed nearly 8000 factories employing about 90,000 persons. It has often been questioned whether Chile, with a population of less than four millions and a fertile territory largely undeveloped, did wisely to encourage this industrial movement. The war has answered that question. Chilian coal now mainly supplies Chilian needs; and, owing to careful treatment and selection, the results have surpassed expectation. The number of factories is growing; and in view of freight difficulties, there is a movement towards exporting mineral products in a semi-manufactured state.
As to the other republics, the immediate economic effects of the war vary with the character of exports, whether needed by the Allies for war purposes or not. The high prices of copper, sugar, and cotton have brought to Peru a stream of wealth, and have enabled the government to make a very interesting experiment in the scientific taxation of excess war-profits made by exportation. Exports are untaxed until they reach a certain height above normal price. Any addition to that limit is taxed in a progressive ratio.
Not only have war conditions favoured a more clearly defined national development, both economic and political, in each of the states. These conditions also conduce to closer and more real intercourse between the Latin-American states. There has been on the one hand a national consolidation in each republic: but there has also been a movement towards international consolidation in the Latin-American world. The war has drawn these republics closer together and has taught them to feel their need of one another, to supply one another's needs and to recognise a nearer community of social and political interests. The sentiment ofAmericanismois more than a sentiment: it is growing into a solid fact. Apart from the war, there are many indications of a kindlier and more intimate intercourse. The Universities of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay exchange professors. Brazil and Uruguay agree concerning navigation of the Lago de Merim and the river Jaguarão; and also arrange a seasonal migration of labourers, who work from April to September on the São Pãolo coffee estates and pass the other half-year working on Uruguayan estancias. The same two republics adjust a financial matter through the foundation of a joint Brazilian-Uruguayan agricultural college. Uruguay has declared that an injury to any South American country is an injury to them all. Envoys from the neighbour-republics visit Bolivia to salute the newly-elected Bolivian President, among them an envoy from the United States. Junior embassies, hardly less interesting in character, are the visits of boy scouts from capital to capital. The five tropical republics which hail Bolívar as Liberator lately clasped hands in a joint celebration of his memory, and at the same time concluded a commercial agreement concerning trade marks and similar matters. The study of history, now actively pursued by competent scholars in all the republics, is a unifying as well as a humanising power: for the student who explores or writes the early history of his own republic necessarily treats the history of all Latin America. The history of the struggle for South American emancipation is a single epic. And a pleasing symbol of this historical unity is to be seen in the portrait of the Argentine commander San Martín and of the Venezuelan Bolívar imprinted on the postage stamps of Peru. The railroad helps this movement. The trans-Andine railway is a link of peaceful intercourse between Chile and Argentina. A direct mail train service has been established between Rio and Montevideo and also between Rio and Buenos Aires. There is a prospect that the last difficult link to connect the railway systems of Bolivia and Argentina will soon be supplied. This is an imperfect and rather haphazard list of symptoms of a natural and tranquil movement towards international unity, which accompanies and supplements a more vigorous economic and political development within the several states. The war situation has favoured this movement. The interruption or diminution of trade with Europe has led these states to trade more with one another. At first, this trade consisted largely in the interchange of accumulated European goods: but it soon grew into something more regular and more permanent, the interchange of home products. Argentina recently got a consignment of coal from Chile—in itself a small matter, but a significant one. Brazilian coal has also found its way to Buenos Aires, and trade between these two republics is increasing.
Both Brazil and Chile are aiming at the national and internal development of their mercantile marine and coasting trade. But the first use which Brazil made of the sequestrated German ships was the opening of a Brazilian steamship line to Chile. The action of Chile is still more noticeable. A law has just passed the Chilian Congress that after the lapse of ten years the Chilian coastwise trade shall be confined to Chilian ships. But the Chilian President may at his discretion extend this privilege, by way of reciprocity, to the merchant-ships of other Latin-American countries—a clear recognition of the fact that these republics form a community of nations in themselves. Thus the two movements are complementary: internal development is more and more a national affair: the development of inter-state relations is felt to be a necessary part of the national development, and more and more to concern all the states: it is also felt to concern these people not only as Brazilians or Argentines or Colombians, but as Americanos. In dwelling on this point, there is probably no danger of giving rise to geographical confusion. A Colombian visitor, lecturing lately in King's College, remarked that, if a British merchant is invited to do business with Colombia, he usually replies, "We have our agent for South America in Buenos Aires," ignoring the fact that, if a Colombian merchant by any rare chance should have occasion to visit Buenos Aires, he would probably pass through London on the way. The trade of all these states with one another is naturally immensely less than with Europe or with the United States, for the simple reason that they are all producers of raw materials and importers of manufactured goods, whereas the European lands, and now the United States also, are importers of raw materials and exporters of manufactured goods. But that very circumstance illustrates the fact that these countries are a cluster of similar organisms. They sit back to back and face outwards: yet as each one grows and expands, they all become conscious that they are sitting close, shoulder to shoulder. They are beginning to touch hands and to pass their good things, both abstract and material, from one to another. Things are changed since the names of Brazilian and Argentine were almost mutual bugbears and since Chile and Argentina seemed to be chronically "spoiling for a fight." The figure of Christ, which stands on the boundary between these two nations, symbolises a truth—a reality all the more valuable inasmuch as it is in part intangible, a product of the realm of ideas, not merely of the material world. The fault of these countries and an unfortunate result of their business connexion with Europe has been that, however prolific in rhetoric, they have been at bottom too materialistic and have been apt to suppose that the convenient appurtenances of civilisation—railways, telephones, tramways, motor-cars, all provided by the foreigner—in themselves constitute civilisation, not quite realising that the word means the faculty of living in organised communities. It is an admirable thing if they can find an ideal, transcending their own borders, in the sentiment or principle or fact of Americanismo: for that word does represent a fact. An Englishman or a Frenchman, if asked about his origin, would never think of saying, "I am a European"; but from the lips of an Argentine or a Colombian the wordsSoy Americanofall quite naturally, with the additionColombianoorArgentino. I have heard a South American speak in conversation ofLa América Nuestra, "Our America," when he had occasion to distinguish Latin America from the United States. The word was casually dropped for purposes of definition: yet it is an inspiring and significant phrase,América Nuestra. Which of us could now so speak of "Our Europe"?
The war has favoured this spirit of Americanism in a tangible way through the growth of economic intercourse. On a higher and broader plane, the same thing is happening. We saw this when Brazil severed relations with Germany. Her announcement, communicated to her neighbour-republics, was received with a kind of demonstration of Latin-American solidarity. Almost every Latin-American state responded in terms of warm appreciation and sympathy. The Argentine Government wrote that it "appreciated thoroughly the attitude of Brazil, which was justified by principles of universal public right, and expressed to Brazil the most sincere sentiments of confraternity."
As the Americano looks across the Atlantic, he may congratulate himself, not without a feeling of civic pride, that he belongs to another world, a system of republics living at peace with one another. A century ago Canning boasted, "I have called a New World into existence to redress the balance of the Old." It was a prophecy rather than a boast. Now is the time for that New World to fulfil that prophecy by realising itself, by creating itself.
It is no inconsistency to add once more that Latin America is at the same time drawing nearer to all the nations of the world, that its long-standing historic connexion with Europe becomes emphasised and extended. Who could have foretold, even a year ago, that the Republics of Peru and of Uruguay would offer the use of their ports to the warships of belligerent European monarchies, that Brazil, Cuba and Panamá would be represented, as recently happened, at the Allied Conference in Paris, or that a Brazilian squadron would be acting with the British fleet in European waters? It can no longer be said of these states, as was said some years ago, that they stand upon the margin of international life. This closer participation in world affairs does not contradict, but rather confirms and explains, what has been said concerning the growth ofAmericanismo, the consolidation of a younger and distinct Europe across the ocean. As these states become drawn into the general movement of world affairs, they are compelled to define more clearly their own position in a world of their own. One may find some analogy in the British Empire, whose members, as they grow into nations and become severally involved in relations with all other peoples, find it more necessary to reaffirm and to define their relations with one another.
But in speaking of Latin America, one has to draw a line, or rather a note of interrogation, round Mexico. The history of that unfortunate country has been profoundly affected by her geographical position within the North American continent. The path which she has followed in recent years—a path not entirely of her own choosing—seems rather to lead outside the ring-fence of Latin America. It is an interesting speculation whether that path may not eventually lead her into another fold, the fold whose shepherd resides in the White House at Washington, whether that shepherd desires to undertake the responsibility or not.
The present position is an anomalous one. The political frontier of the United States is the Rio Grande, but the geographical frontier of North America is the Isthmus of Panamá, and that geographical frontier has been occupied—merely as an outpost so far—-by the United States. The Republics of Nicaragua and of Panamá have been drawn under American tutelage. The question arises whether after the great war the United States may not be led on by the logic of events so to extend the struggle on behalf of democracy against autocracy that the frontier, dividing Latin America from the region under Anglo-Saxon control, shall be the geographical boundary between the two continents. President Wilson indeed has assured the Mexicans, with obvious conviction and sincerity, that no aggression is intended against their territory, and that he desires a common guarantee of all the American republics to protect the "political independence and territorial integrity" of all. But no statesman can shape the future or absolutely bind his successors. It may be pointed out that there are various degrees and methods of control, some of which may be found not quite incompatible with the spirit of President Wilson's assurances. The precedents of Cuba, Panamá and Nicaragua are suggestive.
This leads us to our last topic. We have discussedAmericanismo, the sentiment or system which aims at uniting the Latin-American republics. What about Pan-Americanism, the sentiment or system which aims at uniting all the American republics?