The Iron Hand of War—Paris offered in Sacrifice—FaultyMobilization—The French Army—The Joffre Strategy—The German Retreat.
The position of France to-day cannot be compared with that of any other country in the war. The French people have a distinctive genius all their own. They are still the greatest people in art in the world. Nothing in sculpture or painting in the outside world yet rivals the skill of France. Politically the French are trusting children, vibrating between empires and republics, and following only the rule of success. In finance they were accounted great a generation ago. In savings they have been regarded as world-leaders.
When the stern reality of military necessity suddenly confronted France five months ago, there was the same old story of graft, fraud, and a deceived people.
But the war authorities gripped France with an iron hand. The military traitors and grafters are in jail. The weaklings in the official line have been cashiered. The politically undesirable have been given foreign missions.
There was political as well as military wisdom in the return of the government from Bordeaux to Paris. The French people were shocked when they learned that the boasted military defences of Paris, "the most extensive fortifications in the world," embracing 400 square miles, were unprovisioned and indefensible, that the government had fled, and that there was no army to save the city.
Indeed, the authorities had determined to sacrifice Paris to save France. General Joffre had no men to spare to be bottled up in the city. He determined that his armies should be kept free on the field.
You may ask anywhere in France, Belgium, or England why the French did not come to the relief of Belgium, why Paris was undefended, and what saved it after Von Kluck had led seven armies of 1,000,000 men down to its very gates, and you will get no satisfactory answer.
But when you have studied the situation and the record, you will see that no simple answer can be readily given. A brief one would be: French mobilization plans were imperfect, and, therefore, Belgium could not be defended by the French. But motor-busses did what the railroads were unprepared to do, and finally saved Paris and France.
The French had been warned many months publicly and privately that their mobilization plans would be found faulty in case of sudden hostilities. The railways moved perishable goods at the rate of thirty miles a day while German and Austrian railways bore military trains at the rate of thirty miles an hour.
So ill prepared were the French in their mobilization plans that they actually summoned to arms the men who were to man the railways, and the railways themselves were deficient in rolling-stock to move the troops. The citizens responded promptly enough, but France had no bureaucracy or military plans to match those of Germany, and, as throughout French history, the leaders of the people failed at the crucial moment. The plodding English had to help out the French railway plans, and then had to turn around and find their own railroad defects. When England first sounded the call to arms, men deserted the railroad service to go into training to such an extent that the authorities had to stop it and maintain transportation as, of course, an important arm of the war-service.
The history of the unpreparedness of both England and France has yet to be written. It would not be useful to print much that is already known. There are two political sentiments in both countries, and political issues will rise again in both after the war.
A little contemplation here will show the extravagance of many estimates of the number of men to be put in the field in time of war. Many estimates have taken little account of the number of men required to handle a modern transportation service, and the supply organization to back up an effective army at the front. Transportation and war-supplies are on such an expanded basis as was not dreamed of a few years ago. The war plans of one generation cannot be the war plans of another either on land or sea. That France had 4,500,000 men capable of bearing arms did not mean that she could hold 4,000,000 men in fighting array at any one time.
After five months of war France had only 1,500,000 men at the front, and from the camps and military organizations she expects to have ready a fresh army of another million in the spring. But she mobilized nearly 4,000,000 men. Paris industry, trade, and commerce could shut down in a day, but there was no organization that could make in a day or a week the men of France into an army at the front. Her 600,000 regular troops were, of course, always in position to be thrown on the defensive at the German frontier. None of the nearly 4,000,000 additional men could be got with arms and munitions of war into Belgium, to meet effectively the trained troops of Germany.
The German troops were "moving" as early as July 25, while all the governments of Europe, including Austria, were negotiating for and hopeful of peace. When war was declared against France, she promptly offered Belgium five French army corps for defence. King Albert declined, saying there had been no invasion of Belgium by Germany, and that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by treaty. Within two days the German guns were firing on Belgium; but when King Albert then called upon France for protection, the response was that the French troops which had been offered had been placed elsewhere. The regular troops probably had. The new troops were not mobilized, and the French transportation system, to say the least, had not been as responsive as expected.
France paid dearly for her unpreparedness. Her richest provinces were invaded by the Germans and are still held by the Germans in considerable part.
Caught unprepared, there was only one safe thing for General Joffre to do—let the Germans expand far from their base while the French concentrated between the German border and Paris, to strike back at the opportune moment against an extended and weakened line.
The march of the armies of Von Kluck—"General One O'clock," they called him, and said his fiercest attacks were at one o'clock—is considered a masterpiece of military precision. The strategy of General Joffre which foiled him is praised throughout France.
The plan of the Germans was to hold the north of France with the army of Von Kluck while the Crown Prince moved from Luxemburg straight to Paris. This was theatrical, dramatic, and Kaiserlike; but the French would not consent. They persisted in holding Verdun and defeating the armies of the Crown Prince.
The English are the greatest fighters in the world in retreat, while the French can fight best in a forward movement. The little expeditionary army of England, originally 100,000 men but at this time 180,000 men, held the right flank of Von Kluck in the retreat from river to river, from hill to hill, although pounded by 350,000 trained German troops massed on this flank. This retreat put the stamp of English bravery and dogged determination, as before, on the map of Europe. Paris was open and exposed to any entry which the Germans wished to make. The government had retired, the gold reserves of the banks had been moved, the people in large numbers had fled.
Indeed, I may say what has never before been printed, that President Poincaré summoned the "architect" of the city to the American embassy and, with tears streaming down his face, told him whence he must take his orders in the future.
Then in a flash went the orders of Joffre along his whole concentrated line of troops: "The retreat has ended, not another foot; you die here or the enemy goes back!" He had chosen the psychological moment. The French and English had burned and broken the bridges as they retreated, and with the recoil the German communications were in danger.
A fresh force of 50,000 held in reserve near Paris flew by motors and motor-busses against the right wing of Von Kluck, which the English in retiring had been punishing so heavily. Von Kluck had been drawn too far into France with no support on his left from the army of the Crown Prince, which the French had held at bay but with a tremendous sacrifice of men. The German ammunition and supply-trains were broken and the armies of Von Kluck were hurled back from Paris about as rapidly as they had come forward.
Then the Kaiser took a hand and cried, "Now for the English; take the Channel ports; forward against Calais!" and again, as at Liége, the blood of the Germans soaked the soil of Belgium. The Allies dug themselves into the ground behind the rivers and canals, and drowned the Germans out in front; and when an advance by the seacoast was attempted, the English naval guns spilled havoc into the German battalions. Four nationalities grappled in a death-struggle, but the wall of the Allies held from Switzerland to the sea. The Allies worked most harmoniously. Belgian knowledge of topography proved superior to the German general-staff maps. The English buttressed the French financially and in transportation and food-supplies. Indeed, Kitchener at one time fed two French army corps, or 80,000 troops, for eleven days without a hitch.
Although England had not the trained men, she had the fundamental military organization, transportation, food, and finance.
Delayed Budgets—The Caillaux Position—Outgeneralled in Finance—GoldReserves Undiminished—Allied Finance—No Financial Legislation—TheNational Defense Loans.
The spectacle of England loaning money to rich France—20,000,000 pounds sterling, or $100,000,000—was something most surprising.
The French have been considered among the best financiers and economists of Europe. The whole world has been envious of the saving ability of France, and has invited the overflow of her accumulations into their local enterprises. For many years France has had the lowest interest rates and a considerable surplus to invest in outside countries. It is upon France that Russia has mainly relied for funds for her expanding industrial development. In the Baring crisis she sent her gold to London to fortify the situation, and in the American crisis of 1907 she extended her hand across the sea. Then she turned about and steadily built up her gold reserve in the Bank of France, from $500,000,000 to above $800,000,000, although her people were not expanding in population, industry, or enterprise. France had grown so confident that she seemed at one time to have lost her financial cunning.
In Germany in 1913 I was told that German finance had passed through the "fire test," that two years of building recession and of expanding commerce had placed her on a solid financial base; and it was true.
I was told to step over to Paris and see a disordered budget, an increasing national deficit, bad investments in Mexico and South America, and disorganized finance. I did and found it all true. I also found that France was fully able to take care of herself without any outside help, and, but for the specter of outside interference, to delay her financing if she so elected.
It has been something of a mystery as to how there could be two Balkan wars and so little of public finance behind them. Of course, Russia and France helped the Balkan States and Germany helped Turkey. The money of France came from the French banks and was loaned to the treasuries of the Balkan States and to Greece—to Bulgaria 350,000,000 francs; to Greece 250,000,000.
The French government said that this could not be financed by public issue after the war until the national budget itself had been arranged, although French bankers were permitted to float a $50,000,000 Servian loan. With the increasing cost of labor and supplies the French railways had been steadily running behind, and France had to face a deficit in her budget of something like 1,000,000,000 francs, or $200,000,000, per annum.
It was proposed last January that the government should consolidate its indebtedness and put its financial house in order, by an issue of long-term securities; but Caillaux opposed the programme and defeated it for many months. This postponed the issue of the Balkan States' loans.
To-day Caillaux is about the most hated man in France. Although he is financially well-to-do, the people believe that his connections and sympathy with Germany were too close. The German press took his side in the famous Calmette shooting affair and the trial of Madame Caillaux, and all this record now stands forth most threateningly in the French blood.
I may perhaps be permitted to say that M. Caillaux has been under arrest, and that the police of Paris have declared they would not be responsible for his safety. It has, therefore, been diplomatically arranged by the government that he should be now in Brazil upon a semi-diplomatic and trade mission.
The French loan just before the war was not a popular success. The reason is now obvious. It was sold short from other European capitals where it was better known that war was in the air.
When a famous "bear" operator reappeared upon the Paris Bourse after his return from Vienna, whence he had conducted his attack on the French loan, he was greeted with a storm of hisses. The French Bourse is a government institution and must support the credit of France and her allies. In Vienna they knew war was planned for the end of September, even before the assassination of the Austrian Crown Prince at Serajevo June 28. This event hastened but did not make the war.
Nevertheless, instead of permitting the French banks to bring out the Balkan loans thereafter, the French authorities allowed Turkey to come into the French market with a loan for 25,000,000 pounds, or 625,000,000 francs.
Some people pleaded with them that this money would be used against France, and that every franc would go to repay the German loans; and they were right.
In this financial situation France was suddenly plunged into war, and while Germany and England have been raising money by the billion, the marvelous thing is that France has made no public issue beyond one-year notes, but continues to pay her bills in gold and has the exchanges all in her favor. Money is flowing in, and not out.
It was most marvelous to find in France, in the fifth month of the war, prompt payment, no distrust of the government paper issues, gold and paper circulating side by side, and no strain for gold as in Germany.
Nevertheless, the war has been fought thus far for the most part on the paper issues of the Bank of France and with the gold reserve of that bank undiminished.
This is most remarkable.
The first reason I can assign for it is that the French soldier gets twenty-five centimes, or five cents a day, or one fifth the pay of an English soldier. Kitchener's army is to-day costing far more than the entire French army. French food is locally abundant and cheap, notwithstanding theoctroi, or French local tax of one eighth. The main need of the French from the outside is boots and horses. The English in France are not taxing French resources at all. All their food-supplies, including the hay for their horses, come from England.
The English troops are also well supplied with money from home. Outside the regular Tommy Atkins, the volunteers and territorials coming into France have abundant money. They are the men from the cities and from the wealthiest families in the country life of England. There are more than 300,000 of them on French soil, and as they come and go in France, they are spending not less than four shillings a day each, or nearly four times their wages. This makes a daily expenditure of 60,000 pounds sterling in France, and calling for exchange. Hence the English pound has been at the lowest price in France on record, 24.95 and sometimes 24.90.
There is also the additional reason of higher insurance rates for the transportation of money across the Channel,—a channel infested with mines and submarines. It is no uncommon thing for boats crossing the Channel to sight floating mines, and the wonder is that disasters therefrom have been so few.
The third reason is that France has very large investments and credit resources outside, and can still summon money from abroad.
You see more English than French soldiers in the life of Paris. Their khaki uniforms are as conspicuous there as in London.
The character of the early enlistments for the front in London is illustrated by the following story. An officer entered a restaurant where a group of English soldiers in khaki uniforms were enjoying their cigarettes and pipes. The officer threw some shillings on the table and called, "Waiter, give these men some beer."
And a khaki uniform snapped forth a sovereign on the same table, and cried, "Waiter, give this officer some champagne."
Bank statements are queer contraptions nowadays. While the United States, with less gold in the country and less reserve in the banks than formerly, is showing the most enormous surplus—and a legitimate and better-protected surplus by reason of the new bank act—and the Bank of England is counting $100,000,000 of gold in Canada as a London bank reserve, and Russia has counted, as gold in her reserve, money on deposit which has been loaned out on time; while Belgium is doing a banking business from an English base, and Germany is inviting gold from the jewelry of her inhabitants and boasting her gold strength, the Bank of France refuses to publish any statement, makes no boast, but holds more gold than ever before in her history.
Only a few weeks before the war was her metal base put above $800,000,000. Then she suspended official statements until one was made to the government December 10, and this showed $880,000,000 metal base, or 4,500,000,000 francs. Upon this her note issue, which was formerly 5,800,000,000 has been expanded to nearly 10,000,000,000. She is authorized to issue up to 12,000,000,000 francs in paper.
From this metallic base she increased her bills receivable by 3,000,000,000 francs, or about the same amount that the Bank of England discounted in pre-moratorium bills under the backing of the government. Each country took on $600,000,000 of mercantile credits, and both countries are now finding this item receding. In France the mercantile credits have been considerably reduced—the increase reduced nearly a half—because the men are at the front and business is not calling for the credits formerly in use.
The Bank of France also promptly advanced 8,000,000,000 francs or $400,000,000 to the government.
In the last few weeks of 1914 the finances of Russia, France, and Belgium became interlaced with those of England, and gold credits for the Allies' supplies were established around the world, shipments from North America going both east and west into the European war. Government credit with the Bank of France was then extended, but should not early in January have been more than $800,000,000.
This is the main financial assistance on which France for five months conducted a successful defensive warfare, with 1,500,000 men at the front and nearly 3,000,000 men behind them.
The next most remarkable financial feature in respect to France is that there has been no special financial legislation, in fact no financial legislation whatsoever, except the December budget vote to cover government expenses, including the war. A moratorium was set up by decree, but authorization for this already existed under the general laws. Under this moratorium payments were permitted at first of 5 per cent, then 25 per cent. Later depositors were permitted to draw from the banks 40 per cent, and 40 per cent payments became the rule. Then 50 per cent for December, and in January, 1915, full payment to bank-depositors, although legally the moratorium stands to March 1, 1915.
Among other temporary devices in French finance was the issue by French chambers of commerce in the south of France of small pieces of paper,—as low as 50 centimes or 10 cents,—used only for circulation and change locally.
Many banks closed their branches because they had not the clerks to man them. Many bankers lost three fourths of their staff when the mobilization orders were issued, and all over Paris the banks are closed from twelve to two because of the limitations of the staff. When the Crédit Lyonnais reopened its branch in the Champs Élysées a few weeks ago it was manned by women clerks.
The government loan issued in the summer of 1914 met less than half of the floating indebtedness and 1914 ordinary deficit. The balance as maturing has been merged into the national-defense loan, which is only short-term financing. On the 10th of December there were 1,000,000,000 francs of the new national-defense loan outstanding, but it was being subscribed for all over France daily. This national-defense loan consists of three, six, nine, and twelve months' government bills bearing 5 per cent interest. I figured that the amount issued December 10 was for the most part used to provide for the maturing floating indebtedness, and for the deficit on the government budget aside from the expense of the present war.
As the government is advancing money to Servia and to Belgium, the loan of 20,000,000 pounds, or $100,000,000, from England can be readily accounted for.
There were loans from the big banks of France for the government at the opening of the war, but these loans I was assured were all merged in the 5 per cent national-defense loans, which have not exceeding one year to run.
On these national-defense loans the cautious Bank of France will advance in limited amounts 80 per cent of the face value, but only where the government loan matures within three months.
The great principle of the Bank of France is to keep liquid. Its assets must always be mobile.
There is only one point at which French finance should be criticized, and as we cannot know all the details of the stress of the military position when Paris was abandoned, her mobilizing of the reserves still in disorganization, and her transportation awry, we may not be in a position to level any just criticism.
But it must be set down in the interest of true report that the French credit was at one time endangered by the way the treasury, or the military authorities, handled the government credit in payment for war-supplies.
Instead of going to the bankers and making its financial arrangements, paying the war-supply contractors, the French government made many contracts under which it paid contractors, and purveyors, with the 6 per cent national-defense notes of the government, running three, six, nine, and twelve months.
As the contractors were making 15 per cent and 20 per cent on their mercantile overturn, they could afford to discount 5 per cent and more in the sale of the government notes, and while the government was passing out these notes at par to the patriotic subscribers, the contractors were negotiating liberal discounts to bankers and others.
Nevertheless, the stupendous fact remains that France, caught in a European war most unaware, with impaired budget and a floating indebtedness, has carried the greatest war of her history for six months without a long-term national loan and by the issue of less than $200,000,000 5 per cent short-term notes for not exceeding one year, and credits for less than $800,000,000 from the Bank of France; has maintained her gold basis unimpaired; and has kept the international exchanges steadily in her favor; and all this without any special financial legislation.
Nor could I find any evidence of a French disposition to sell the American copper shares, railroad bonds, or industrial shares into which the French have been putting some money of late years. But I did learn that short-term American railroad notes may this year be renewed abroad only in part.
No Migration from Belgium—Germany's War TaxLevies—Irreconcilable—The Army—No Neutrality over Belgium.
Before Germany launched her thunderbolts of war, Belgium had an industrious, frugal, hard-working, saving population of nearly 8,000,000 people. Of these, 450,000 are now refugees in Holland, where the magnanimous Dutch are providing for them with no outside assistance. Queen Wilhelmina declares, "These are our guests and we will care for them." Nearly 30,000 Belgian troops have also been interned in Holland. It was expected that they might leak out, but the Dutch are stern in their present position of neutrality. They understand their very existence depends upon it. Some of the interned warriors attempted to escape, and six were shot by the Dutch. Nor will they permit contraband articles of war to go through their country. While the Dutch may sell their own supplies as they please, all imports of rubber, copper, or petroleum must be accounted for, and their reëxport to Germany is forbidden.
Germany also holds 30,000 Belgian soldiers as prisoners. England took 18,000 severely wounded Belgian soldiers into her hospitals, and 80,000 refugees are being there cared for largely by private enterprise. The losses by the war are difficult of estimation. But at the present time there are 7,000,000 people in Belgium, most of whom must be fed by the outside world.
Belgium is the one nation from which the people have never migrated. Beyond war there is only one power that can move the Belgians from their soil, and that is the influence of the Church.
Representatives of American railroad and industrial interests are in Europe endeavoring to induce emigration from Belgium to the United States, but it is doubtful if these efforts will meet with any success. There are in the United States to-day only two Belgian settlements, one of about 1000 people in Montana and one of about 1500 in western New York. The Belgian loves his land and sits by his home though it be in ruins. The history of the land of the Belgians shows that, as the cockpit of Europe, it was the battle-ground of centuries; yet her people are more immobile than those of any other country in Europe. Earthquakes do not make sunny Italy or golden California less attractive to their inhabitants.
About $20,000,000 (more than 10 per cent of this came from Belgian people) has been raised to feed starving Belgians, and $20,000,000 more should be forthcoming.
The English war office objected at first to the American proposals for food supplies to the little country. It was held to be the duty of the invading Germans to feed the population of the conquered country, as the Germans had appropriated large stores of supplies that were in Belgium, notably at Antwerp.
England finally assented to the proposal, as well she might, for Belgium would starve without food from the outside, irrespective of war losses. In normal times, she imports 240,000 tons of food every month. She also imports most of her raw supplies for manufacturing. Belgium is, therefore, to-day without food, or raw materials for her industries, and probably without outlet had her industries the ability to produce. Although about fifty ships are bringing food to Belgium, they are of small capacity and in the aggregate represent less than one month's supply. In the early part of December about 80,000 tons of food were going through the American committee by permission of Germany and England. The people have been put on one-third rations. Every inhabitant of Belgium is allowed a pint of soup a day and about as much coarse brown bread as would make one American loaf.
The German idea of responsibility and power is that of force. They have ordered the people of Belgium to love them, coöperate with them, and go about their business. But the Belgians refuse to love the Germans, refuse to coöperate with them and will not resume their work for the Germans to appropriate the results. The people of Antwerp were invited to come back from Holland and it was proclaimed that there would be no indemnity levied, yet a huge one came down upon the city. The Germans levied a war tax of 50,000,000 francs on Brussels, and Rothschild and Solvay are not permitted to leave the city.
Payment on the tax was agreed to, and then the Germans demanded 500,000,000 francs from the entire province of Brabant, which includes Louvain as well as Brussels. The inhabitants said it was impossible and the demand was reduced to 375,000,000 francs. The inference must be that the latter levy covers a term of years.
The Germans are provoked that the bank money got out of Belgium. The Bank of Belgium sent its gold reserve to the Bank of England, 600,000,000 francs, and Germany demanded that this reserve be transferred from England to a neutral country; but, of course, England refused. There are some banks still doing business in Belgium, but the Belgians reject the German money except when obliged to take it.
The Belgian stores remain closed for the major part, and the Germans threaten that unless the Belgians reopen and proceed with business they will confiscate the stores and sell them to Germans who will do business. The people of Antwerp must be in bed by 9 o'clock. The people of Liége are ordered to retire at 7 P.M. No Belgian is permitted the use of a telephone, the entire system having been appropriated by the military authorities.
The Germans have decreed German time, which is one hour different from that of London, but the Belgian people refuse to set over their watches and clocks. The Belgian railroad system is different from that of the Germans,—left-handed tracks and a different system of signalling. The Belgians refuse to do the bidding of the Germans and operate the railroads. The Germans must move the trains themselves.
The Germans do not hate the Belgians. They simply pity them, that they were so shortsighted as not to accept German gold for right of passage through the country. The German hate is reserved entirely for the English above all people on the surface of the globe. In Belgium 200 marks reward is offered for the capture of any Englishman found in that domain.
The latest response to Bernhardi's book, "England the Vassal of Germany," is Kipling's poem in the King Albert book issued December 16 to augment the Belgian Relief Fund. I clip two verses:—
They traded with the careless earth,And good return it gave;They plotted by their neighbor's hearthThe means to make him slave.
When all was readied to their handThey loosed their hidden swordAnd utterly laid waste a landTheir oath was pledged to guard.
After the German Kaiser sounded the battle sentiment of Europe by sending the warship "Panther" to Agadir three years ago in violation of the treaty of Algeciras, it was intimated by the French and the English that Belgian neutrality might be in danger; also that the Lord and the Allies helped those who help themselves.
Therefore, a bill was introduced in Belgium's Capital providing for the raising of an army of 600,000 men where before were 46,000 and a war footing of 147,000. The leader of the Catholic party opposed the programme, declaring that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by Germany, France, and England. A compromise was effected by which an army of less than half this number was authorized.
When on Sunday evening, August 2d, at 7 P.M., the German ultimatum was handed to Belgium, she was given twelve hours or until morning to declare whether or not the country would be surrendered to the free passage of the German war battalions. Belgium had then an army of 200,000 men; 60,000 volunteers sprang to arms, and that 260,000 was the maximum Belgian army that attempted to withstand the millions of Germany's armed forces. Even these were not effectively placed. The 30,000 men at the frontier were not sufficient to permit of any effective sorties to protect the approaches to the Liége fortifications. It was a forlorn hope from a military standpoint, but for three weeks the Belgians with shrinking forces held in check the war power of Germany. Every week help was expected from the Allies, but no help came, for no country in Europe outside of Germany and Austria had any expectation of war.
Down to the ground and their graves fought the plucky little Belgians, until they numbered, not 260,000, but nearer 60,000. After every able-bodied man in Belgium was demanded by King Albert, the ranks of the Belgians began to swell, and, with able-bodied refugees returned from England, there are now about 120,000 men in the ten divisions of the Belgian army.
But England carries, as she ought, the financial burden. She feeds, clothes, and equips the Belgians and furnishes the money-supply. The Germans still strive, not so much against the Allies as against the English in Belgium. Here the fighting is fiercest, casualties are greatest, and here the reinforcements on both sides are the greatest per mile of line.
Meanwhile the more than a million Germans in Belgium have trenched across the whole country, rebuilt the forts at Namur, Liége, Antwerp, and other places, and are digging themselves into the ground doggedly and determinedly, and with as great precision and more science than the Allies. The German trenches are rather better made and the machinery for trenching has been, of course, better prepared by the Germans.
The great surprise of the war was the demonstration in Belgium that forts costing millions, in defense of cities, are absolutely useless against the big German shells. The defense at Liége was prolonged because the Germans could not at first find the exact location of the central defense. Finally a German approached bearing a large white flag of truce. Belgian orders were given to receive him. The German, under his flag of truce, signalled the desired information and then fell. Soon after, fell the fort. The Germans had found the desired range, and shot. At Antwerp a single shell was able to put an entire fortress out of business.
It is the Landwehr and the older men that have been called by Germany to do duty in Belgium, while the younger troops are sent back and forth between the eastern and western frontier defences.
An American who has lately been all through Belgium, representing both commercial interests and charity work, tells me;—
"I left America absolutely neutral. I was not a student of the war or of the cause of the war. What I saw in Belgium convinced me that the Allies must win and will win. I am no longer neutral. What I saw in Belgium of the wanton destruction of villages, towns, and cities has prejudiced me as no argument could have done. The Allies' losses will begin when they take the offensive against the German works which are now being constructed. Soon England will have 600,000 more men on the Continent and there will be more doing.
"The losses of the Germans have been two or three times the losses of the Allies in the Belgian trenches, because the Germans have been the attacking parties. If the Allies become the attacking parties they will have to sustain the heavy losses. But I cannot see it otherwise than that the Allies must win. The crime against Belgium is the greatest crime since Calvary, and it has set the whole world against Germany.
"It is not only a crime, but it was a military error, for to-day Germany has 600 miles of front to defend, 300 east and 300 west, and her losses have been enormous. At Liége 7000 Germans went down in a single day's fighting. One man I met assisted to bury 500 Germans in front of a single trench.
"I do not believe Brussels is mined; but if ever the Germans got intoParis they would destroy the whole city before they left.
"I shudder to think what the Germans will suffer at the hands of the Belgians when once the rout of the Germans has been begun by the Allies. The Belgians are unreconciled, and if they ever get weapons in their hands—well, I will not predict, I will just tell you one fact: I traveled the length and breadth of the land, saw the women and the children sitting by their ruined hearthstones, but I never saw a tear on the cheek of a Belgian."
Russian Reforms—A United Russia—Russian Armaments—The GreatestFuture—Two Water Outlets—The Slav Invasion Bugaboo.
Russia also is likely to bring forth some notable men who have not previously been heard of before the world. General Evanoff is the idol of the Russian army. He is the strategist who plans the movements against Austria and Germany in the East, who surrounds Przemysl and says, "Now, we can take it when we please, but we will not sacrifice Russian troops to take it now; Cracow is more important. Lodz is not important from a military standpoint. We will surround it later."
Evanoff orders his men to keep out of the valleys and engage the Germans in the open plain, where their own numbers will count in action; for in the valleys the German big guns have the advantage.
Russia has been at work steadily since the Japanese war reforming her army within and without. More than one third of her officers were dismissed after that war. The Russian officials now say that the Japanese war was to Russia most providential. It showed the lines of Russian weakness, inefficiency, and graft, which could flourish at a distance from St. Petersburg but became exposed when war put the Russian organization to the test. Steadily every year Russia has been systematically and thoroughly routing out graft and inefficiency. When Russia starts to do a thing she does it thoroughly.
It was because Russia was rebuilding, reorganizing, and was indulging in criticism and putting its mind on the weak spots, that Russian confidential papers stolen in the interest of Germany misled both Berlin and Vienna as to the possibility of Russia going to war to defend Servia in the year 1914.
War has united Russia as never before. The Czar now moves about unattended, and the country is a unit behind him and the war and unitedly against the Germans. From Warsaw to Siberia the German agents and merchants have been arrested and impounded. Nobody in Germany can yet realize how this war has destroyed her commercial relations and commercial organizations throughout the world. Everywhere German people are subjects of suspicion. You will even hear in all seriousness that the Kaiser had an army of 150,000 reservists in the United States with a partial equipment of arms ready to attack Canada; and I have been told by supply agencies that these arms are now offered for sale, as the uselessness of any German movement on the American continent is apparent.
How far Germany is unable to measure the spirit of the English-speaking people is shown by the fact that she cannot understand why the United States does not take this opportunity to possess Canada.
I heard of a retired German-American of wealth, residing in Germany, who was actually invited to go to America to stir up a raid on Canada. Of course he obediently returned to the United States, and then he sat down to wonder how he could effectively report back the foolishness of such an idea without offense to Berlin.
Russia has been perfecting her military organization for ten years. The expansion was to come in the next two years. At the opening of the war she had only 2,500,000 available troops. For two years she has been building factories to manufacture ammunition and arms, and these are now being rushed to completion. People who have offered her contracts for arms and munitions have been told that Russian factories shortly to be completed will make their weapons more quickly than they can now be ordered and received from other countries.
With arms and equipment Russia can draw 17,000,000 men to her German-Austrian frontier just as readily as Germany can draw 7,000,000 men to both her frontiers. In both calculations only one in ten of the population is counted upon for service.
The story is told of a Russian who was asked in London why he did not return for military duty. He replied, "Oh, I belong to the 14th million, and it will be some time before the 18th million is called out."
Russia has the greatest future of any country in Europe. She has the largest unturned arable soil of any country in the world. Russia in Europe is a great agricultural plain. To the east are her rich oil-fields steadily expanding north in the Ural Mountains, and east lies Siberia, endowed by nature as one of the richest countries in the world, an area in which you could deposit the United States. From the Siberian railroad other railroads are now projected; mineral wealth is being uncovered; and English and French capital and American engineers will in the future work wonders with the country.
What Russia has long sought is an outlet to the ocean. This war is likely to give her benefits which she could never have asked and could only have fought for. Germany, defeated, will lose the control or monopoly of the Kiel Canal, and possibly the country around it which she took from Denmark. The Kiel Canal under international control will extend the Baltic Sea of the Russians and the Scandinavians most directly to the North Sea and the English Channel.
To the south Russia will have something to say in Asia Minor and much to say concerning Constantinople. Certainly her influence in the Balkan States and on the Bosphorus will be as great as she could desire. As long as the Turks remained loyal to England, Great Britain was bound to maintain their integrity and hold upon Constantinople and the Bosphorus. With the passing of the Turk Constantinople is in the hands of the Allies when they are victorious. Its final disposition is not yet clear, but the English people can see compensation in Egypt, Asia Minor, and Persia for any necessary Russian control of Byzantium.
While seeking one direct outlet by waterway, Russia may get two with the suicide of Germany and the destruction of her latest ally, the Mohammedan Turk.
Russia is beginning to be better understood throughout the BritishEmpire and the world. The fear of an invasion of Western Europe by theSlav races is a bugaboo set afloat by Germany, who also propagates thebugaboo of a Japanese invasion of North America.
Russia is not a competing nation. She needs the capital and the brains of the outside world for her development, and in time she will offer the greatest field for world coöperation.
Japan wants to coöperate with Russia, and, indeed, with all European civilization. After the fall of Kiao-Chau she sent arms to Russia, and she stands ready to throw legions into the European field in defense of her English ally. Influential people in England are strongly urging the military authorities to permit the little Japs to join in.
Russia will keep faith with the Poles and the Jews and set up an autonomous Poland. But there is a strong resentment in Russia to-day because the Polish Jews misled the Russian army in the marshy grounds of East Prussia in the early campaigns of the war.
Russian military plans had to be changed and the field of war set farther south. Here Russia hopes to drive the five million people of Silesia back toward Berlin. This will awaken the Junkers of East Prussia and bring home to the people of Germany what the Prussian military machine really invites when it attempts a world-conquest.
Russia lacks military railroads and scientific means of communication. But just as America was surprised ten years ago to find the Japs, as the ally of England, giving, as the English predicted, "a good account of themselves," so the Russians as the allies of Great Britain may be found giving a very good account of themselves in this war. Russia is certainly unconquerable from either the Austrian or the German standpoint, and the smashing of Austria between Russia, Roumania, Servia, and Italy may be the real military campaign of this most Audacious War.
American engineers and diplomats familiar with Russia declare that, properly led, the Russian soldier is the greatest fighter in the world; and he is getting that leadership now.
The Russians expect the war will be over before next autumn, but Kitchener does not plan to end it then. He means to do this job thoroughly, and his plans are most comprehensive.
A Quiet London—The Call to Arms—No Mourning—The ZeppelinScare—German Spies—The German Landing—Kultur War Indemnities.
It is worth a winter trip across the Atlantic to stand with a London audience and hear it respond to the call, "Are we downhearted?" with a thunderous "NO!"
It is then you first realize that the British Empire is at war; and what that war means; and that that Empire has piped to its defense a free people inhabiting one fifth of the territory of the globe.
The British Empire has war upon its hands a major part of the time. It may be in the Soudan; it may be in South Africa. From some quarter of the globe war is almost always before the Empire. But a war summoning the whole British Empire to arms on land and sea,—that has not been dreamed of for a hundred years.
You expect to find in London an armed camp, the flags flying, the drums beating, the troops marching; an excited people discussing causes and effects of the military and naval programmes; military encampments with white tents over the plains. But you find nothing of the sort. If you attempt to motor in the country and figure on reaching a certain place in two hours, you may find it takes you four, as you are very likely to run into troops, companies, regiments, and armies in training, but mostly without arms and only partially uniformed. They are trudging the highways and the lanes of England from 5.30 A.M. until dusk,—rain or shine. Here is Kitchener's army being put into condition, with no fuss, feathers, or trumpet beats. The army is "rolling up" and "hardening up." But not on the tented campus. It is quartered in the towns and villages all over England, and board and lodging is regularly paid by the government.
There are no noticeable drum beats over England; no displays of bunting. Monuments, public buildings, and conspicuous corners, and, most conspicuous of all, the glass fronts of the taxi-cabs, bear signs calling the men of England to arms:—
"Fall in—Join the Army at once."
"Your King and Country need you. England expects that every man this day will do his duty."
"Enlist for the duration of the War."
"Enlist for three years."
"You are needed to fight for Honor and the Country's defense."
"No price can be too high when Honor and Freedom are at stake."
"Who dies if England lives?"
"He gives twice who gives quickly—join at once."
"'More men and still more until the enemy is crushed.'—Lord Kitchener."
And many more of the same tenor. Beyond these you will see little evidence in the London streets of an empire at war. Hotels are largely empty; managers very polite; restaurants must close at 10. P.M.; no after-theater supper at the hotels unless you are a guest. Men in khaki uniforms are more conspicuous; and bandaged heads, slung arms, and legs assisted by crutches are more noticeable than formerly.
The searchlights flash above the city; the street lights are shaded overhead in foolish fancy as a protection from aeroplanes or dirigibles. Curtains are closely drawn by police orders, in the houses and railway trains.
Yet one of the airmen who had been over London at night told me that the city was just as conspicuous as though it were wide open in illumination. Indeed, there is a general call among the Londoners for the police to let up and permit electric signs, lighted windows, and more light in the streets. But the only answer that came early in December was orders to turn down the lights further!
In Paris they turned on the lights, illuminated the streets, closed up the museums and galleries, buried their art and sent the Venus de Milo on a walk to some storage vault along with the banks' reserve gold. London's museums and picture galleries are wide open, and the endeavor to protect the streets from Germans peering down from above looks childish. The great strategy of the Germans consists of talking across the Channel about their plans for raiding England. I suspect that the English military authorities do not object. It encourages enlistment. When enlistment gets dull, the Germans stimulate it with some shells thrown on the English coast.
There are only two or three new plays in London this season; the great war-plays and dramas, and indeed the literature of this war, have yet to be written. Nearly all the new presentations for which London is so famous were set back on the shelf when the business of war started. Most of the theater programs are revivals of old favorites, and a few of the theaters are still closed. All that are open begin promptly at 8 P.M. Five hundred English actors have gone to the front.
You have to make the circuit to find the heart of England at war, but you find it—horse, foot, and dragoons; men, women, and children. "Are we downhearted?" answered by a thunderous "No!" Then again silence, and turning down of the lights, and the steady work! work! work!
"Have you a bed here?" said Kitchener when he entered the War Office."Never heard of such a thing here," was the response.
"Get one," said Kitchener; "I have no time for clubs and hotels."
Not only Kitchener but the whole staff camped down in the office, working days, nights, and Sundays, until Lady —— turned over her house nearby to Kitchener and his staff.
"Where is ——?" I asked of his next-door neighbor. The response was,"Oh, he is at the War Office, and gets a Sunday home with his familyabout once in six weeks." That family was not fifteen miles fromLondon.
When a citizen has been suddenly notified that where he could formerly get a train for home every fifteen minutes, the railroad has been taken for military service, and he must get his supper in town, there is not the slightest word of complaint. He only wishes he could contribute more to the Empire.
I spoke with Lord K., of B—— & Co., concerning the loss of his eldest son, as I had known Lord K. for many years. The manner, the gesture, the speech, in response, were all one, and brief; just an indication of sacrifice that had to be made for the Empire; and that sacrifice had only just begun; deaths in the family just honorable incidents in the life of the Empire.
You see crutches and broken heads in London, but you will see no mourning.
"Yes," said Lord C. to me, "the average income tax in England is now doubled until it is one eighth, or about 12 1/2 per cent, but my friends in the banking world have to pay an increasing supertax. I know many who must now give one quarter of their income to the government. They not only do it gladly, but expect it will be a half next year, and they will contribute that just as gladly."
From the top to the bottom in the Empire, all that is asked at the present time is a protected food and clothing supply, and everything else can go into "the cauldron of war."
"Did you ever see anything like it?" said an American banker in London to me. "Are n't these people wonderful? Did you ever see such resolution, such steady work, such sacrifices, such unity of empire?"
It was indeed worth a winter's trip across the ocean to see it.
Although the newspapers complained of the censorship, there was only one general complaint from the people in the British press. They wanted to know what the regulations were, or were to be, concerning self-defense when the Germans arrive in the country. Should a citizen without uniform take up arms against the invaders? Had he a right individually to shoot a German invader? Was the old rule that an Englishman's home is his castle, and that he has the right to defend it, now superseded by any rules of international warfare?
Some independent people of note were declaiming in the public prints that any German invader of England was a thief and a robber and that any weapons might be used to attack the invaders; and that there was no rule of warfare that could prevent an Englishman defending his home by any weapons against any foreign invaders.
Nevertheless the spirit of the people was, even under invasion, to respect law and order and rules of warfare, and be guided by the government as to all forms of individual or collective defenses. They simply wanted the rules promulgated.
The English are reconciled to Zeppelin raids from Germany, and rather expect them. But there is yet no unanimity in preparation or action. The Rothschilds have put four feet of sand on the roof of their building, but the amount of their gold in store must be incomparably less than that in the Bank of England, where no precautions are visible.
Trenches by the beaches and barricades by the highways are noticeable along the entire south and east coasts of England, but they are without stores or equipment. You run across these trenches in the moonlight as you journey about the country and for the moment you wonder for what purpose somebody dug those long ditches by the shore, and what the trench or irrigation scheme is. Your answer comes when you run straight into a timber barricade across the highway nearby. Then you look down the coast and see flashing searchlights, note the lights of steamers passing up and down the coast, and reflect that there is no universal law in war. The Channel steamers are carrying lights in the war area, but the North Atlantic steamers still cross the ocean without showing even port or starboard lights. The street cars moving in the English coast cities must, of course, be lighted and the streets must have some illuminant; but the railroad carriages, hotels, and private houses must draw their curtains. Yet railroad terminals and piers must have their lights, and harbors must have their searchlights. General service lights must be ablaze, but individual glimmers must be curtained. It reminds one of Cowper, the English poet, who, in the same kennel, cut a big hole for his big dog and a little hole for the pup.
The most talked-of war subject in England is the German spy system. It is estimated there were between 30,000 and 40,000 German spies, and many times this number of German reservists, in England at the outbreak of the war. For years England has laughed over German theoretical discussions of how best to invade England, and German studies of English coast lines and country resources.
I heard years ago of a young Englishman who disputed in Berlin the war-office plans of his father's estate. He declared that he thought he ought to know the land where he was born and brought up as a boy, and that there were only two springs of water thereon, instead of three. The German general staff said their maps of England were correct and were not based on English authority. The young man found on his return to England that the German maps were correct and that his father's estate had three springs whence men and horses could be watered, although his family had never noted the existence of a third.
Two years ago some friends of mine were playing tennis in an English village and inquired the occupation of two young Germans, who seemed to be good tennis-players, but without family relations or settled business.
The response of the hostess was: "Oh, they are just two German spies of good education and charming manner looking over the country here, and we find them very useful in making up our tennis tournaments." It was looked upon as just a part of the German map-making plans, and England was an open book for anybody to map. Baedeker published the guide-books of the world: why should n't the Germans make all the maps of the world,—especially if German map-making were cheaper than English map-making?
A banker friend of mine found two young Germans in his village, with no other occupation than motoring the country over and making notes and sketches of cross-roads, railroad junction-points, important buildings, bridges, etc. He thought the authorities ought to know what was going on, but received a polite invitation from the local police to mind his own business. When once he lost his way on a motor-car trip, and ran across these fellows, he was very glad to get the right directions for the shortest way home. They knew more about the roads of that country than did the people who were born there.
About 20,000 German spies and reservists are in detention camps on the west coast, and on the islands. Even the German prisoners are kept away from the east coast, where it is expected the Germans may eventually struggle for their landing.
I have not the slightest confidence in any invasion of England by Germany, but I do not understand why German Zeppelins do not move in the darkness over the British Isles and drop a few bombs about the country at important places. It may be that the German Emperor is right in his calculation that such action would do very little damage, and would strengthen tremendously the enlistments and war-expansion plans of the English.
When West Hartlepool, Whitby, and Scarborough were bombarded by the German warships on the morning of December 16, the English excitement concerning it was only a small part of what an American would have expected. Not far from this bombarded coast is a summer resort town, where for many years a legend has existed that when in some future age England decayed and Germany came in, this would be the first landing-point.
An Englishman two or three years ago took it upon himself to find out how far this legend might have its base in any near invasion. He looked up the record and found that all the leading summer hotels and strategic points were in the hands of Germans. Then one day he quickly addressed his German waiter in his native tongue, demanding to know where his post was in that town in the event of hostilities. Promptly the German replied, "Down at the schoolhouse!" Further investigation showed that every reservist had his allotted place before and after the landing, and his place in the civic organization to follow. The Germans had also compiled lists of the people of property in that vicinity and exactly the character and amount of resources that could be commandeered from them.
If the Germans were free to map England, why should they not be free to map all its resources, individually as well as collectively?
I know a building in the heart of the London financial district that carries on its roof a Zeppelin-destroyer gun. A few days before I was last in this building a fine-looking fellow in khaki uniform entered in haste and asked the janitor to show him to the roof that he might quickly inspect that gun and see that everything was in order, as raids might be expected at any moment. Of course, he was taken to the roof, and his inspection quickly completed. Ten minutes later the London police were there to inquire for a man in khaki uniform.
The English officer said, "Very singular, we are ten minutes behind that fellow everywhere. He is the cleverest of all the German spies, and we are not able to catch him!"
If that spy had been caught in his English uniform inspecting English defenses, would not everything have been kept quiet in the endeavor to pick up the lines of his foreign communications?
In writing home from England, even to my family, toward the close of 1914, I thought it just as well to be brief and not too definite with any information. I had seen some of the censorship regulations and envelopes resealed with a paper bearing heavy black letters, "Opened by censor," with the number of the censor, showing that there are more than one hundred people engaged in this work; and also directions from the censorship that "responses to this inquiry must be submitted," etc., etc.
Nobody could believe until this war broke out and there descended upon peaceful Belgium not only armies and demands for their shelter, maintenance and food, and drink, but also huge demands for financial indemnification—war tax levies upon cities, towns, and provinces, with individuals held as hostages for their payment—that German war plans meant the looting, not only of nations and states, but of individual fortunes and properties.
It now seems that the march to Paris through Belgium and the imposition of a huge redemption tax upon Paris and France were but the preliminaries to larger demands upon London and England.
Indeed, judged by the demands upon Belgium, the German plans contemplated the transfer of the wealth of France and the British Empire to Germany; and such enslavement of these peoples as would make Germany rich, powerful and triumphant for many generations, if not forever, over the whole habitable globe. The German minister at Washington sounded a true German note when he asked who should question the right of Germany to take Canada and the British possessions in North America. Were they not at war, and if Germany were able, should she not possess them?
It had been understood before this war that countries were invaded under ideas of national defense. But possession of countries for the absorption of their wealth and the enslavement of their people, to work thereafter for the victors, was believed a barbarism from which this world had long ago emerged in the struggle for the freedom of the individual.