I. What would really be the outcome of the dodge called the “Drawn Game.”II. The financial consequences for the Allies of this so-called “Drawn Game.”III. The Allies and the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”IV. Panislamic and Asiatic consequences of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”V. Consequences for the world of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
I. What would really be the outcome of the dodge called the “Drawn Game.”II. The financial consequences for the Allies of this so-called “Drawn Game.”III. The Allies and the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”IV. Panislamic and Asiatic consequences of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”V. Consequences for the world of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
I. What would really be the outcome of the dodge called the “Drawn Game.”
II. The financial consequences for the Allies of this so-called “Drawn Game.”
III. The Allies and the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
IV. Panislamic and Asiatic consequences of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
V. Consequences for the world of the achievement of the scheme “From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
If the Allies really wish, as their Governments have often proclaimed, to put an end to the peril of Prussian militarism, they must resolutely face the facts as they are, even when these are unpalatable to their self-esteem. They must understand fully that the chance of carrying out the Pangerman plan rests in a large measure on the ignorance of the Allies. Berlin knew that before the war the countries now allied were unaware of the totally new face which within recent years has been put on all the political problems of the Balkans and Austria-Hungary by the labours of Pangermanism and the movement of nationalities. Undoubtedly that ignorance of the Allies has been as minutely studied and appraised as were their military deficiencies; the conviction that the Allies did not understand how to grapple with the situation has certainly contributed to Berlin’s decision to unloose the dogsof war. Now, the dodge of the “Drawn Game,” the last trump of the Berlin Government, is a fresh gamble based on the ignorance of the Allies about foreign affairs.
The dodge of the “Drawn Game” will be based on the following train of reasoning, which unquestionably prevails in Berlin:
“The Allied diplomats have grasped neither our plan, nor our Pangerman organization, although that has required a preparation lasting twenty years. The Allied diplomats have understood neither the true position of the Balkans after the treaty of Bukarest (though that position was so favourable to themselves), nor the importance of the Balkan forces for the issue of the war. Still less do the Allied diplomats and the public of their respective countries know about the real state of affairs in Austria-Hungary. In France, and above all in England, a considerable proportion of the public continue to believe that Austria-Hungary is chiefly a German country, and that its more or less formal union with the Empire is a natural and almost inevitable event. Therefore, if we are compelled to give way in the East and in the West we may still, if we are clever, have a chance of achieving the third part of our Pangerman plan. The Allies will not understand the future danger in store for them if we carry out that part which is, indeed, the principal part of our scheme, namely, our designs on the South and South-East, symbolized by the formula: From Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”
Indeed, the dodge of the “Drawn Game” aims at nothing less than at that result. We must own that the German argument which has just been summarized is not devoid of foundation; for up tonow the Press of the Allies has published articles on Austria-Hungary revealing a total misconception of the facts, and they have thus unconsciously encouraged the Pangerman project as regards the Hapsburg Monarchy.
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE DODGE CALLED THE “DRAWN GAME.”
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE DODGE CALLED THE “DRAWN GAME.”
In the Allied Press, also, the expression: “Drawn Game” is currently employed to mean that Germany might be considered as vanquished if she evacuates the now occupied territories in the East and in the West; but nobody has yet pointed out with the necessary precision that the so-called “Drawn Game” would not be a draw at all, since it would allow Germany to effect enormous acquisitions, which would make her much more powerful than before the war.
And yet the Allies ought not to be again the dupes of a German stratagem; which, if it succeeded,would involve consequences infinitely more serious than all the former errors of the Allies. To ward off that danger it suffices to look it full in the face and thoroughly to fathom what would be the outcome of a peace negotiated on the so-called principle of a “Drawn Game.”
The term “Drawn Game” evidently denotes that each country would keep the frontiers which existed before the war; also that each country would bear the burden of the outlays it has made during the struggle. But we will argue on a hypothesis infinitely more favourable for the Western Allies than that of the so-called “Drawn Game” in order to demonstrate super-abundantly and as decisively as possible what would be concealed behind this apparent and partial German capitulation.
Let us suppose (see map, p. 79) that, in consequence of victorious offensives of the Allies, Germany should declare herself disposed, not only to evacuate totally Poland, the French Departments, Belgium, and Luxemburg, but also to restore Alsace-Lorraine to France, and even to give, as an indemnity all the rest of the left bank of the Rhine, under the sole and tacit condition that Germany should keep her preponderant influence, direct or indirect, over Austria-Hungary, the Balkans and Turkey.
There are surely in the Allied Western countries many worthy people who, at present, no more see the result of such a peace, than a year ago they understood the enormous influences which the Balkans would exert on the course of the war. These good creatures, weary of the prolonged strife, would at once say: “After all, these are most acceptable terms: Alsace-Lorraine, the left bank of the Rhine!... let us make peace.”
If matters are probed to the bottom it will be easily seen that, should the Allies negotiate peacewith Germany on such a basis, the restitution of Alsace-Lorraine could only be temporary; for with such a peace as that, Germany would secure all the elements of power which might enable her, after a very short respite, to retake Alsace-Lorraine, and in the end to overcome all the Allies and to achieve in its entirety the Pangerman plan, not only in Europe, but in Asia, nay in the whole world.
To relinquish the left bank of the Rhine, according to our hypothesis, would mean for Germany that she would lose:
The present German Empire would therefore be reduced to 493,408 square kilometres and 58 million inhabitants. But this loss in the West would be far more than counterbalanced by that close union of Austria-Hungary to the German Empire, which would be none the less real because it would be disguised. On this reckoning Berlin’s influence would be exercised directly and absolutely over:
It is evident that a solid block of States, established in Central Europe under the direction ofBerlin, would exercise, simply by contiguity an absolutely preponderant pressure on:
Therefore Berlin’s preponderant influence would be wielded, directly or indirectly, over 3,462,199 square kilometres and over 150 million inhabitants.
We now see clearly that in the end the dodge of the “Drawn Game” would lead in reality to an enormous increase of the German Empire, and to the achievement of the principal part of the Pangerman plan summarized in the formula “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” (p. 109 of original). What then would be the general position of Great Germany thus constituted?
“Having cut Europe in two, mistress of the Adriatic as well as of the North Sea, secure in her fleets and in her armies, Great Germany would be an incubus on the world. Trieste, the Hamburg of the South, would feed her in peace and revictual her in war. Her industry, equipped with plant of incomparable power, would flood with her wares those very countries which she now schemes so artfully to monopolize:—Holland and Belgium, which are already penetrated; Hungary, her client; Roumania, her satellite; Bulgaria, a broken barrier; Bosnia and Herzegovina, the portals of the East. And, beyond the Bosphorus, Germany would reach Asia-Minor, that immense quarry of wealth. The huge German railroad projected to run from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf without a break, would link Berlin to the Far East. Then would the Emperor William’s Brobdingnagian dream be fulfilled. Germany would rule the world by her might and by her commercial wealth. The state of things which then would exist might be described by slightly modifying what Metternich wrote of Napoleonic France: ‘The German system which to-day is triumphant is directed against all the great states in their entirety, against every power able to maintain its own independence.’”
Such are the words which I published fifteen years ago in my book,L’Europe et la Question d’Autriche au seuil du XXᵉ siècle, p. 353 (Plon, Nourrit, editeurs, Paris). A careful study of the Pangerman plan of 1895 had then convinced me that the whole future policy of Berlin would tend to carry out the plan laid down in the formula “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.” In what I then wrote a few minute discrepancies may now be detected, but, unfortunately, the facts of to-day show that still on the whole my words correspond exactly with events. The dodge of the “Drawn Game,” which the Germans keep up their sleeve, hoping still to profit by the ignorance or the weariness of some of the Allies, would indeed have for its indisputable object the achievement of that huge plan.
The terrible danger which this would bring upon the Allies will be better perceived (supposing they fall into the trap laid for them) when we shall have demonstrated with precision, what would be the consequences for them if the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” were to succeed.
If we suppose for the sake of argument that the dodge of the “Drawn Game” were to succeed so far as to allow the Germans, by binding Austria-Hungary to the German Empire, to carry throughtheir plan “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf,” their success would involve certain general financial consequences. These we must unfold, if we would clearly understand the full extent of the craft hidden under the cloak of that manœuvre called the “Drawn Game,” which is still to be played.
The Germans having failed to crush the Allies, begin to think that the expenses of war may possibly fall on themselves. TheBerlin Posthas already calculated: “If we do not receive a war indemnity we must reckon on a yearly increase of taxes of at least four milliard marks,” being five milliard francs for 68 million inhabitants (Le Temps, 1st February, 1916).
The disappointment is certainly keen for the Germans who counted on exacting from France alone an indemnity of 35 milliard francs; but we must nevertheless fully understand that the dodge of the “Drawn Game” (which, for the sake of argument, we suppose to have succeeded) would place Germany in a financial position vastly more advantageous than that of the Allies.
As a matter of fact, the cost of war has been much less for Germany than for her adversaries. This is a point which must be fully considered, all the more because it helps to explain why the economic resistance of Germany is more prolonged than was generally expected.
From the beginning of hostilities, Austro-German troops have lived at the vast expense of enemy or Allied territories, such as Turkey and Bulgaria, whose accumulated resources they slowly drain. Besides, in enemy countries, particularly in Belgium and in France, which are the richest regions on earth, the Germans have collected a large amount of plunder. On Belgium alone they have levied a war contribution in specie of 480 million francs ayear. Out of Belgium and France the Germans draw large quantities of coal and iron scot free. In both these countries they have purloined raw goods, machines, furniture, valuables, representing the value certainly of several milliard francs. In the French towns of the Nord alone the Germans have stolen about 550 million francs worth of wool. Everywhere they have seized innumerable securities which they have already tried to convert into money, though with small success, in the United States. But if a complete victory did not compel the Germans to restore those bonds to the Allies who own them, some at least of them would suffer a heavy loss of capital, by the mere fact of their warrants being detained; the effect of this would unavoidably react on the general wealth of the Allied countries. To these losses would probably be added those of the numerous milliards of francs, lent by the French or English to Austria, to the Balkan States, and to Turkey, and represented by bonds which at present are, it is true, in Allied lands, but whose value would become exceedingly uncertain and hazardous the day that Germany ruled from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf. Teutonic good faith would then serve as the only guarantee that dividends would be paid. The war, therefore, has put within Germany’s power not only vast territories which have enabled her to carry on the struggle with far less expense than the Allies, but also the Germans have been able to lay their hands on enormous wealth, representing tens of milliards of francs, which, being partly convertible into specie, have reduced by that amount the direct financial war outlay of Germany.
Clearly, the Allies are not in an equal position.
Always supposing, for the sake of argument, that peace were concluded with Berlin on the basis of the“Drawn Game,” each one of the Allies would have to bear, without any reduction, the immense expenses incurred to maintain a war made by Germany. It is easy to perceive that these war costs have been and are considerably higher for each of the Allies and more miscellaneous than has been the case for Germany. The Allies found it necessary to improvise an enormous war plant under most costly conditions, while Germany had been able during peace, that is, under relatively economical conditions, to produce all the material of her fighting equipment.
The Allies are bound to take care of and to maintain millions of refugees from invaded regions, whereas the Germans have only temporarily borne such a burden and merely for a small part of Eastern Prussia. After the war, Belgium, Russia and especially France will have to provide for some tens of milliards of francs worth of extra charges for repairs of the colossal damages done by the Germans in invaded territories, to private persons, State properties, railways, roads, etc. The Germans would not have a similar outlay, at least not anything like in the same proportion. In their conception of the “Drawn Game” the Germans certainly reckon that these financial differences would almost ensure, after peace, the ulterior impotence of the Allied countries as against Great Germany.
What, for instance, would be the position of France if a war indemnity were not paid to her? A few familiar figures, which everyone can check, will enable us to form an opinion on that score. If the struggle lasts, let us say, for two years, we can estimate at 50 milliards of francs the direct outlay for France, and about 20 milliards would be required for her indirect expenditure, that is, what must be paid after peace for repairing the prodigiousdamage caused to individuals and to the State—remaking of roads, rebuilding of railways, etc., the total of the expenses mounting up to some 70 milliards of francs. As the national debt of France, before the war, was 30 milliards of francs, it would therefore have increased after peace to about 100 milliard francs.
On the other hand the budget of France in 1914 was in round figures five milliard francs. The single item of the rise in price of daily commodities will in itself inevitably be increased after war at least by 10%, therefore the budget after peace will require, let us say, an initial increase of 500 million francs. On the other hand, this same budget would have to bear interest at 5% on the 70 milliard francs of newly incurred war debts; this would make a yearly outlay of 3,500 million francs. Finally, it is clear that pensions to be given to the wounded, to widows of combatants, will burden the budget by a yearly outlay of at least a milliard francs. Probably even that figure will be insufficient. Altogether the French budget of five milliard francs, as it was in 1914, would have to be increased by about five milliard francs; in other words, it will have to be doubled. Already we well know that this figure is much below what would be needed. And yet that enormous increase makes no allowance for sums required to effect important social reforms, nor for the great improvements necessary to bring up the economic national plant of France to a proper standard for resuming business actively.
We remember how hard it was in France before the war to find, by means of taxes, even the 500 million of francs needed for new expenditures. How could we find annually an additional sum of five milliard francs of taxes in a country cruelly devastated by the struggle and where the re-organization of economic life would have to be complete? Itis obvious that the most crushing taxes levied on every person would not suffice for such a sum to be regularly raised.
Such a situation must inevitably tend to raise for the State and for every Frenchman individually considerable financial difficulties. The same would apply to economic undertakings. Thousands of these, at present in the hands of shareholders or bond-holders, would be in a most precarious condition, or the securities would be immensely depreciated. Landed property, overburdened by taxes and specially affected by the shortage of labour, would lose a great part of its value. This situation would lead to a general rise in prices for the commodities of daily life, and that again would lay a fresh burden on the back of every Frenchman. The financial position would be analogous for the Russians and for the English, who of all the belligerents have spent most on the war.
The Germans, in trying their “Drawn Game” trick, reckon oil these financial consequences to reduce the Allies to ultimate impotence. The only way to avoid this danger is to win that complete victory which all the Allies desire, since it would enable them to impose on Germany the payment of the war indemnity which she unquestionably owes, as she is responsible for the hostilities. Annuities paid to each of the Allies will be used as the basis of loans, which will help to tide over the serious financial difficulties that infallibly await all the belligerents after the war.
The menace involved in the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” creates between the Allies in Europe, a common bond of interest, which is far superior to their own individualinterests, and which ought to keep them firmly united to the end.
France, England, Russia and Italy have an identical and an absolutely vital interest in defeating for ever the scheme of an empire that should reach from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf. This is quite apart from the purely humanitarian consideration that the numerous non-German peoples who live between Bohemia and the Persian Gulf should not be finally subservient to Germany. The achievement of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” scheme threatens all neutral states, for it would guarantee to Germany, as we shall see presently, her domination over the world.
Always on the supposition that this scheme succeeded, it would, regarded from the general economic point of view, place Germany in every respect in an infinitely superior position to that of the Allies. Her direct or indirect seizure of Austria-Hungary, of the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire would secure for Germany an extraordinary economic power, against which all eventual combinations of the Allies would be impotent. The German dogged power of work, spirit of enterprise and organizing skill need no further demonstration. We must therefore not doubt for a moment that they would draw, to their enormous advantage, all possible profits from Austria-Hungary, vast regions of which can still be turned to account. The same would apply to the Balkan countries, many of which are still quite virgin, and contain, to a considerable extent, unexplored sources of wealth, both agricultural and mineral. This would also be true of Asiatic Turkey. As early as 1886 the German Orientalist, Dr. Spenger, stated:“Asia Minor is the only territory of the world which has not yet been monopolized by a Great Power. And yet it is the finest field for colonization. If Germany does not miss the opportunity and seizes it before the Cossacks grab it, she will have secured the best part in the division of the world.”
It is an illusion to imagine that the Turks would seriously raise obstacles to the economic exploitation of their country by Germany. If the Germans were masters of Central Europe and the Balkans, they would be in a position to sweep away all obstacles. The Prussian Pangermans are quite sure of it, thanks to their liege-men of Constantinople. This is proved sufficiently by the way in which the hereditary prince of Turkey, Yussuf-Izzedin, was “suicided” at the end of January, 1916, because he was anti-German. The Germans would perfectly understand the art of showering, as hitherto, the amplest personal advantages on the handful of Young Turks of Enver Pasha’s clique, while at the same time they would grant such nominal concessions as would enable Berlin under the same to exploit thoroughly the Ottoman Empire.
Do not let us be deceived, if the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” succeeded, it would place in Berlin’s hands every element of a formidable economic power unprecedented in history. It would secure, in fact, to Germany the exclusive monopoly of economic influence on about three million square kilometres of European and Asiatic lands (Austria-Hungary, Balkans, Turkey), and it would include, beside, the seizure of numerous strategical places of the highest importance (the coasts of the Adriatic and the Ægean Sea, the Dardanelles, etc.).
Now the permanence of these enormous advantages would be assured to Great Germany through the expansion of Prussian militarism. For it must be clearly understood—the point is essential—that Prussian militarism would become considerably more powerful than it was in 1914, if thescheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” were achieved. Yet it is the destruction of Prussian militarism which is the true, legitimate, and necessary object of the war, an object infinitely above any mere territorial annexation whatsoever.
The increase of power which would accrue to Prussian militarism through the accomplishment of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” is readily intelligible. The close attachment of Austria-Hungary to Germany, by placing under the immediate authority of the Headquarters Staff of Berlin a population of 108 millions, would enable it to mobilize at least 10 millions of soldiers. Now, in virtue of the central geographical position of the two empires, and of the network of Austro-German railways, which would be brought to the highest degree of technical perfection, this immense army might, even more easily than to-day, be very rapidly concentrated on any point of the periphery of the Germanic confederation. But that is not all. The predominance of Berlin over the Balkans and Turkey, by means of political alliances forced on the satellite states of the South-East, would give in addition to the Berlin Staff control of 42 million inhabitants, that is to say, of about four millions of soldiers.
Supposing then that the mobilization applied to only ten per cent. of the population, the accomplishment of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” would place under the influence, direct or indirect, of the Hohenzollerns, a total of about fifteen millions of soldiers. If the mobilization applied to fourteen per cent. of the population, which is the proportion attained by Serbia and apparently by Austria-Hungary, the figure would be 21 millions of soldiers.
Now the course of the present war proves incontestably that the control of great militarymasses, placed in a single hand and elaborated as minutely as the Berlin Staff, forms a power infinitely greater than that of far more numerous masses under a control which is not sufficiently co-ordinated.
Hence the accomplishment of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” would place Germany in a military position considerably superior to that of all the Allied countries together.
In any case, those who are fighting for the purpose of putting an end to great armaments would find themselves once more plunged into the vortex of the most rigorous militarism, for they could not contend with Great Germany except at the cost of formidable armaments, which would absorb all their resources and all their attention. Now, would they be in a position to undertake such armaments in the infinitely difficult financial situation in which, according to hypothesis, they would stand? (see p. 86). Would they even have the resolution to undertake them, after the frightful moral disappointment of their peoples, who would learn too late the enormous mistake committed by their governments in negotiating peace on the basis of the so-called “Drawn Game,” which would have enabled Berlin to carry out its scheme of domination “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf”?
Besides, even if the Allies were willing to attempt once more the overthrow of the atrocious Prussian militarism, now much more oppressive than before the war, Great Germany would certainly not give them time to prepare for it.
We may be quite sure that the day peace was concluded on the basis supposed, Berlin would set about organizing economically and militarily, with the utmost speed, the immense territory over which its supremacy would be extended. Supposing that Russia, France, England and Italy were disposedto renew the conflict, they would, in the assumed financial and moral situation, be certainly reduced to impotence before they could make head against the new German colossus.
Finally, it would be ignoring completely the tenacity and ambition of the Hohenzollerns to imagine that Great Germany, once mistress of an empire from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf, would sincerely renounce the ambition of dominating the North Sea and the English Channel. Hence the evacuation of Belgium and the retrocession of Alsace-Lorraine, which on our hypothesis Germany would have yielded to France, would only have been temporary. The apparent capitulation of Berlin would have been, therefore, nothing but a cunning device to allow Germany, driven almost to bay, to recover herself for a renewal of the struggle. Indeed, she is already preparing for it in union with her actual allies.La Nation Tchèque, of 15th March, 1916, an excellent review edited by M. Ernest Denis, professor at the Sorbonne, brought to light the following fact. On the 29th February, 1916, the Chamber of Commerce of Budapest met, all members being present, in order to study what measures to take for a future war intended to complete the insufficient results of a peace, looked upon as “imperfect.” In this discussion it was stated that with the prospect of a fresh conflagration the States allied to Germany in the present war must form an Economic Union.
Thus, already, the Hohenzollern are stirring up even their allies to organize the future conflagration which they will set ablaze if the Allies do not crush Prussian militarism. William II. and his Pangermans want, at all costs, to carry out the scheme known as “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” because they know very well that the completion of that scheme, as we shall see presently, wouldsuffice to provide them with all the means of afterwards accomplishing in its entirety their programme of universal domination.
The Pangerman plan of 1911 provides that the results of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” scheme should be made the most of even in the furthest points of the Far East. Facts to hand and well-known Pangerman programmes enable us to form an idea of what help Germany meant to find in Asia during the war, and what profit would have accrued to her afterwards from the said scheme, if she had succeeded in finally carrying it out.
William II. tried to play the Panislamic card, which is one of the leading trumps of the Pangerman game. In a word, the object was to stir up a Panislamic movement, both political and military, which would help Germany to vanquish the Entente powers, since these hold among their possessions numerous Moslem subjects: France, particularly in Tunis, Algiers and Morocco; Italy in Libya; Russia in the Crimea and in the Caucasus, in the region of Kazan, in Central Asia and in Siberia; England in Egypt, in India, in Burma, in the Straits Settlements and in the greater part of her African Colonies.
As Panislamism is ostensibly founded on the restoration and considerable extension of the influence and powers of the Sultan of Constantinople, Commander of the Faithful, it could not fail to flatter deeply the neo-nationalism of the Turks, which has manifested itself particularly since the failure of the Allies at the Dardanelles. The result is that, thanks to Panislamism, the Kaiser’s interests have been well served by the Sultan’s Moslem subjects; a clever propaganda has dazzled theireyes with a prospect of the restoration of a great empire, even greater than in days of old.
ASIATIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF THE SCHEME “FROM HAMBURG TO THE PERSIAN GULF.”
ASIATIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE ACCOMPLISHMENT OF THE SCHEME “FROM HAMBURG TO THE PERSIAN GULF.”
The Panislamic movement, minutely and long prepared during peace by Germany, was started by her as soon as hostilities began. On the advice of Berlin, the Sultan proclaimed, as early as the end of 1914, the Jehad or Holy War. No doubt the Moslem insurrection has not become general, but the Islamic agitation has nevertheless yielded local results, which will be better understood after the war, and which have hampered the Allies in India, in Egypt, in Libya and in the French possessions of North Africa. Particularly in April, 1915, an insurrection of British Indian troops at Singapore very nearly succeeded. About the same time in Siam, numerous German officers, with the assistance of Indian and Burmese revolutionaries, had begun to muster a small army of 16,000 men, who, after being armed, were to attack British Burma. This Islamic agitation was threatening to assume serious proportions, when the success of the Russians in Armenia and in Persia fortunately checked it by striking a heavy blow at the prestige of the Sultan, the Commander of the Faithful.
Nevertheless, what Berlin has already attempted to achieve with the help of Islam, should serve the Allies as a strong warning of what Germany would certainly do in time to come, if the future peace left her the necessary means. As soon as the Turco-German junction had been effected across Serbia in October, 1915, the Panislamic policy of the Kaiser assumed a more decided form. At the behest of the Kaiser, his familiar spirit at Constantinople, Enver Pacha, who then was all-powerful, mobilized the whole of such of his Ottoman subjects as were able to carry the arms provided for them, which only at the beginning of 1916 began to pour in from the Central Empires, after communications had been established across invaded Serbia. At the same time, hundreds of thousands of Armenians were systematically massacred, in order to eliminate a non-Moslem population, which thwarted the Turco-German plans for the future. As to the military and Panislamic activity of the Turks, directed by the Germans, it has endeavoured to radiate from Constantinople in many directions towards Egypt, the Caucasus, Persia, Central-Russian Asia, Afghanistan and India.
After the war, if by our hypothesis, peace were made on the basis of a “Drawn Game,” that is to say, if the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” were carried out, all these other plans would be taken up again. How would the Turks free themselves from the German clutches? Their financial position binds them entirely to Germany. Such large personal advantages as the Kaiser’s agents would inevitably offer to all Turks whose help would be considered useful, would suffice to ensure Berlin’s predominance in the Sultan’s Empire, that classical land of backsheesh (seemap, p. 95).
Now, there are in Persia, in the Azerbijan, about 400,000 men who would make quite useful soldiers,and who would provide what is necessary for an offensive against Russia; in Afghanistan 500,000 first class combatants would be found. Once armed they could be let loose in Northern India, which contains about 50 million Moslems. These, so far, have collectively remained loyal to Great Britain, but their feelings might be subject to a change if, as a fact, Germany appeared to be victorious by remaining mistress of the route from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf. Hence we conclude that very soon after a peace negotiated on such a basis, the English and the Russians might have to face very grave difficulties.
That is not all; German propaganda has extended to the whole of China by various means. First of all the 20 to 30 million Moslems who dwell in the Celestial Empire, have been worked up by Turco-German agents in the same way as the Moslem population in other Islamic regions. But as the Chinese Moslems are geographically not well grouped to form a sufficiently powerful basis for the German agitation, the latter has fastened on the vital and motor organs of China. The German agents have bought in China, as elsewhere, all the newspapers which could be utilized for their object, particularly thePeking Post, written in English, and the Chinese review,Hsie-Ho-Pao. They have also made use of theOstasiatische Lloyd, which was published at Tien-Tsin before the war. Since its outbreak they have founded theGerman China Gazette. All these organs have propagated everywhere in the Celestial Empire the doctrine of German invincibility. Thanks to this, says theFrankfurter Zeitung, “every coolie knows by now that Germany is victorious.”
For the moment the policy which Germany pursues in China consists in stirring up everywhere trouble and unrest. In Northern China it upholdsthe President Yuan-Shi-Kai.[2]In his set the Germans have gained numerous followers. Thanks to their influence, German officers already occupy very important posts in the Chinese army. But in Southern China, Germany is rousing the populations against the authority of Yuan-Shi-Kai. The aim of Berlin in this apparent contradictory policy, is to create such a position in China that it will engross the attention of Japan, and prevent her from intervening with her troops in Europe; such an intervention has been already contemplated and would be still possible.
The present Berlin policy in the Celestial Empire has also for its object to prepare the German policy of the future in the Far East. When once peace is concluded, on the basis on which she counts, Germany would pursue in China exactly the same policy which she intends to pursue in Turkey. Then Berlin will say to the Chinese, as she now says to the Turks, “See, we are bold financiers, enterprising manufacturers, energetic business men. We will help you to turn your country to account. We shall procure for you the experts whom you need. We will give you the means of defending yourselves against your neighbours. We, who are the finest soldiers in the world, will bring up to a proper standard your endless and magnificent military forces, now in embryo. With your 300 millions of inhabitants you can be the absolute rulers of all Asia. We will, therefore, build up for you a formidable army and a very powerful navy.”
It is easy to perceive what is hidden behind this programme, with its obvious attraction for the Chinese. In reality, it is a preparation for the seizure by Germany of part of China, and hereconomic exploitation under exactly the same conditions and by the same measures as those already employed in Turkey. Moreover, this policy is a signal vengeance which Germany means to wreak in the future on Japan after the victory of which she thinks herself assured. No doubt, in order to break the union of her adversaries, Berlin has already hinted to Tokio the idea of a separate peace, but that is merely a piece of tactics exacted by the need of the moment.
Never would a Great Germany, mistress of the route from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf, and exercising a predominant influence in China, forgive Japan for having driven her out of Kiao-Chau. Now, if and when an immense Chinese army shall have been created, under the direction of German officers, Japan, in spite of the bravery of her soldiers, would at once be unable to avoid the consequences of the intolerable situation in which she would be placed through the relative smallness of her population (70 millions, with her colonies, against 300 millions of Chinese). Japan is, therefore, directly aimed at by the scheme of domination from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf, which really endangers her future.
Finally, we can see that thanks to a combination of Panislamism and a Chinophile policy, at least one that is outwardly so, the achievement of the scheme of domination from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf, would assure to Germany the means not only of dominating Europe, but also of exercising a preponderant influence over the whole of Asia. After having obtained for herself in Europe the possibility of drawing exclusive profit from strategic positions of inestimable value, such as the shores of the Adriatic, the Ægean, and the Dardanelles, Germany would be mistress, by mere force of circumstances, of the Suez Canal and would commandbesides numerous vantage points on the Chinese coasts. Thus the defeat of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” project is a vital question not only for France, England, Russia, and Italy, but also for Japan.
In order to demonstrate the really extraordinary importance of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf,” we have still to show how its achievement would not only make Germany mistress in Europe and preponderant in Asia, but would carry with it the accomplishment of the Pangerman plan in its world-wide form. The world-wide elements of this plan, graphically shown on the map herewith, have been set forth in the book of Otto Richard Tannenberg,The Greater Germany, the Work of the 20th Century,[3]which appeared at Leipsic in 1911. As this book, whichbearing date 1911, contains the exact programme of the seizures to be effected in Europe and Turkey, nine-tenths of which the German General Staff has already carried out to the letter, the exceptional importance of Tannenberg’s book is indisputable. It is demonstrated, in fact, that the annexations and seizures which he advocated in 1911 correspond as completely as possible with the execrable ambitions of the government of Berlin.
WORLD-WIDE CONSEQUENCES OF THE “HAMBURG TO THE PERSIAN GULF” SCHEME, AS PROVIDED FOR BY THE PLAN OF 1911.
WORLD-WIDE CONSEQUENCES OF THE “HAMBURG TO THE PERSIAN GULF” SCHEME, AS PROVIDED FOR BY THE PLAN OF 1911.
As for the territorial acquisitions which Tannenberg advocates in Asia, in Africa, in Oceania, and in America, they would be the perfectly logical consequences of the accomplishment of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” project. If that project became a reality, it would be because the European Allies, through their blunders in the management of the war, would have had to forego the notion ofbeating Germany and to leave the German General Staff to command an army of from 15 to 21 millions of men (see p. 91). Therefore, it is obvious that on this hypothesis the Allied peoples, after a treacherous peace, morally and financially exhausted, having to face the formidable armies of Pangermany, would be unable to oppose the accomplishment of those colonial schemes, which the success of the “Hamburg to the Persian Gulf” plan would afford to Great Germany the means of carrying out, since, always on the assumption in question, they would have given way on an issue much more vital for them—that of the independence of Europe.
Once grant this supposition, and we shall be convinced that Tannenberg’s world-wide plan of Pangerman annexations is quite stripped of that chimerical character which at first sight we might be disposed to ascribe to it.
Besides, we must add that the programme, which is fully described below, was drawn up by Tannenberg on the supposition, on which the Berlin Government also reckoned, that England would not take part in the war. In order to purchase her neutrality, Tannenberg advocated dividing the colonies of the other European powers between London and Berlin. But now that England has thrown herself into the struggle, it is clear that, assuming Germany to be victorious, she would take possession also of those colonies which Tannenberg proposed to assign to Great Britain, since Britain would be incapable of resisting. It follows that the world-wide acquisitions of Pangermany, sketched in the plan of 1911 and summarized below, are in fact less than Germany would be able to effect, since having presumably accomplished the scheme of domination “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf,” no organized force on earthwould be powerful enough to curb the boundless ambition of Berlin.
We have proved above that if the Allies allowed Germany to secure her hold on Austria-Hungary, the predominant and exclusive influence of Berlin over all the Balkans and Turkey would be inevitable. Tannenberg (op. cit., p. 323) explains that finally Asia Minor, Syria, and Mesopotamia, Palestine, Western Persia, and the larger part of Arabia would pass under the absolute protectorate of the German Empire, making a total of, say, 3,200,000 square kilometres and 16,500,000 inhabitants.
Once masters of the coasts of the Adriatic, the Ægean, the Dardanelles, and Aden, helped by the Panislamic propaganda, the Turco-German seizure of Egypt, and therefore the Suez Canal, would necessarily follow. Germany, if she commanded these essential strategical points, would then obviously be able to retake her colonies in Africa and Oceania.
Always on the assumption which we have made, the Allies, having given way in Europe, could not prevent Great-Germany from snatching, according to Tannenberg’s programme, the Belgian, Portuguese, and Dutch Colonies, namely:
Next would come the turn of those French colonies, the cession of which to Great Germany was foreshadowed by Tannenberg,op. cit., p. 313.
The combination of Panislamism and the so-called Chinophile movement would prepare for the German seizures in Asia. As we have seen (p. 99), the Berlin plan consists first in arming China powerfully enough under the orders of German officers, to expel the Japanese from Kiao-Chau and from the province of Shantung. Germany would thus inflict a first and striking vengeance on the Empire of the Rising Sun. But that would not be all. The policy which Berlin foreshadows with regard to China is identical with the one which it is now pursuing in Turkey. If Germany armed China, it would be under conditions such that the Celestial Empire would have to submit to the strict influence of Pangermany. Tannenberg (op. cit., p. 321) tells us that the outcome of these tactics would be the establishment of a vast zone of special German influence on the whole lower course of the Yangtse-Kiang and the Hoangho, that is to say, over that vast portion of China which forms the hinterland of Kiao-Chau, making a total of about 750,000 square kilometres and 50 millions of inhabitants.
Tannenberg finally gives an exact enumeration of the various German protectorates which wouldbe established in the southern part of South America, where dwell many German colonists, whose aggressive tendencies are already plain enough. “Germany,” says Tannenberg literally, “takes under her protection the republics of Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay, the southern third of Bolivia, so far as it belongs to the basin of the Rio de la Plata, together with that part of southern Brazil, in which German culture is dominant” (op. cit., p. 321).
“German South America,” concludes Tannenberg, “will provide for us in the temperate zone a colonial region where our emigrants will be able to settle as farmers. Chili and Argentina will preserve their language and their autonomy. But we shall require that in the schools German shall be taught as a second language. Southern Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay are countries of German culture. German will there be the national tongue” (op. cit., p. 337).
Even during the war, Germany has laid the train for some of these explosions. The ChicagoTribunehas learned that the Committee of Foreign Affairs for the Senate of the United States possesses the proofs of German intrigues carried on in the American hemisphere in defiance of the Monroe doctrine (Le Temps, 16th February, 1916). These official Pangerman machinations, proved up to the hilt and entirely in harmony with Tannenberg’s American plan of campaign, demonstrate theidentity of his colonial views with those of the government of Berlin.
To sum up, the result of the Pangerman programme for countries outside of Europe would be to assure to Germany, under the form of colonies, protectorates, or zones of special influence:
Germany, which occupied or controlled, at the beginning of 1916, in Europe, 3,576,237 square kilometres, including the Empire, and more than 160 millions of inhabitants, would then have a universal domain of influence reaching over 25,896,237 square kilometres and 347 millions of inhabitants. This figure includes at the utmost 90 millions of Germans; therefore, these will exercise their supremacy over 257 millions of non-Germans.
It must be clearly understood also that the enormous possessions of Pangermany in both hemispheres would be thoroughly under the domination of Berlin; indeed, a glance at the map (p. 101) will show that the universal Pangerman plan aims at seizing all the essential strategic points which command the seas of the world, especially, in addition to those already mentioned, the Straits of Gibraltar from the side of Morocco, Cape Horn, Madagascar, and all the naval bases of Oceania.
To sum up, the complete Pangerman plan aims at procuring for Germany all the means of domination by land and sea, which would enable Pangermany to hold the entire world in the dreadful hug of Prussian militarism screwed up to its highest degree of power.
Not for a moment do the Pangermans pause to reflect how criminal is this programme of universal slavery. “War,” says Tannenberg, with his monstrous cynicism, “must leave nothing to the vanquished but their eyes to weep with. Modesty on our part would be purely madness” (op. cit., p. 304). Now, it is a fundamental truth, of which I should like to convince my readers, that the universal Pangerman plan is solely and wholly based on the achievement of the scheme “from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf,” which forms its backbone. If this is broken, the whole of the Pangerman plan falls to the ground, and the projects of Prussian domination are destroyed for ever. The principal problem which the Allies have to solve, if they wish to ensure their liberty and that of the whole world, is to make impossible the achievement of the plan“from Hamburg to the Persian Gulf.”