It is useful to distinguish among (the) factors which give importance, urgency, and inevitability to the advancement of space technology (one of which) is the factor of national prestige. To be strong and bold in space technology will enhance the prestige of the United States among the peoples of the world and create added confidence in our scientific, technological, industrial, and military strength.[18]
It is useful to distinguish among (the) factors which give importance, urgency, and inevitability to the advancement of space technology (one of which) is the factor of national prestige. To be strong and bold in space technology will enhance the prestige of the United States among the peoples of the world and create added confidence in our scientific, technological, industrial, and military strength.[18]
Only recently, however, has the full impact and meaning of this phase of our national space program come to be widely recognized. It has been stated, perhaps in its most forceful and succinct form, by an American official in a unique position to know. The Director of the U.S. Information Agency, part of whose job is to keep track of the esteem in which America is held abroad, has told Congress:
Our space program may be considered as a measure of our vitality and our ability to compete with a formidable rival and as a criterion of our ability to maintain technological eminence worthy of emulation by other peoples.[19]
Our space program may be considered as a measure of our vitality and our ability to compete with a formidable rival and as a criterion of our ability to maintain technological eminence worthy of emulation by other peoples.[19]
This element of space exploration takes on particular significance in light of the current international struggle to influence the minds of men, in light of the rising tide of nationalism throughout the world, and in light of the intensification of the cold war as demonstrated by the now-famous U-2 incident and the hardening attitude of oriental communism.
In the words of an influential newspaper:
Wholly apart from the intellectual compulsions that now drive man to move higher and higher into the high heavens, it seems clear that our country can be niggardly in this field only at the risk of being completely and forever outclassed by Russia—a gamble that could have the most fearful political, economic, and military consequences.[20]
Wholly apart from the intellectual compulsions that now drive man to move higher and higher into the high heavens, it seems clear that our country can be niggardly in this field only at the risk of being completely and forever outclassed by Russia—a gamble that could have the most fearful political, economic, and military consequences.[20]
Incidentally, there is another prestige factor to be considered. This is what might be called the chain-reaction factor: the likelihood that technological preeminence in the space field will attract top talentfrom other parts of the world to the banner of the country which develops it, and thus constantly nourish and replenish the efforts of that country. It is a consideration which has not received general attention, although it has been discussed before some of the world's leading space scientists.[21]
Here again, as with the military situation, the Soviets are making every effort to exploit their dexterity in space. They are pursuing the prestige gambit directly and indirectly. In the first category, for example, they give top priority to space exhibits in important public forums—as their duplicate sputniks strategically placed at the world's fair and the United Nations attest. Premier Khrushchev's delight in making gifts to foreigners of miniature Soviet pennants similar to that carried in Lunik II—which hit the Moon—is another instance.[22]
The indirect drive for prestige via space technology is far more important. It has been described by a congressional committee as follows:
It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the Soviet Union in the last several years has demonstrated a great skill in coordinating its progress in missilery, its success in space missions, and its foreign policy and world image. Shots seem to have been timed to maximize the effects of visits of Soviet leaders and to punctuate Soviet statements and positions in international negotiations. This is not to equate their space activities with hollow propaganda. Empty claims do not have a positive effect for long. Nor is there any firm evidence that it has been possible for political policymakers to call their shots at times inconsistent with good scientific and technical needs. The conclusion is rather that the many elements of scientific, technical, military, political, and psychological policy are all weighed, and tests which make a full contribution to such a combined strategy are carried out and supported with appropriate publicity.[23]
It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the Soviet Union in the last several years has demonstrated a great skill in coordinating its progress in missilery, its success in space missions, and its foreign policy and world image. Shots seem to have been timed to maximize the effects of visits of Soviet leaders and to punctuate Soviet statements and positions in international negotiations. This is not to equate their space activities with hollow propaganda. Empty claims do not have a positive effect for long. Nor is there any firm evidence that it has been possible for political policymakers to call their shots at times inconsistent with good scientific and technical needs. The conclusion is rather that the many elements of scientific, technical, military, political, and psychological policy are all weighed, and tests which make a full contribution to such a combined strategy are carried out and supported with appropriate publicity.[23]
There is also evidence that scientific endeavor by the Russians for prestige purposes is having repercussions on internal policy. Great emphasis is currently being placed on the demonstrable usefulness of scientific effort—to the extent that Soviet colleges, research institutions, examining boards, and academies of science have been directed to be more exacting in conferring scientific degrees and titles. Newness and usefulness are requisite, but, at the same time, degrees may now be awarded for other than dissertations; inventions and textbooks of major importance may also earn a degree for their authors.[24]
Within the prestige context, it is true that the United States must labor under certain handicaps because of the nature of its democratic system.
No effort is made in the American space program to hide the failures which result from its highly complex character. Our burnups, misfires, explosions, fizzles, and lost or wayward vehicles are well publicized. Those of the Soviet Union rarely are. Even though most nations are well aware that the Russians must be having their troubles,too, the appearance of uniform success fostered by the U.S.S.R. inevitably contributes to an image of scientific superiority. In addition, the Soviets have developed a habit of striving for spectacular "firsts," most of which undoubtedly are undertaken almost as much for prestige reasons as for scientific ones.
Figure 4.
Figure4.—Symbolic of the American effort in space is this Thor-Able rocket, shown here launching the Tiros weather satellite into a near-perfect orbit. This same vehicle, which launched the record-breaking 23 million-mile communication probe—Pioneer V—has contributed enormously to U.S. prestige abroad.
Still, the United States has not done badly from the prestige angle. So far as the world's scientific fraternity is concerned, it may even be well in the lead.
In the first 30 or so months following the opening of the space age, as signaled by the launching of Sputnik I in October 1957, the United States put 21 satellites into orbit out of 42 attempts. Two out of five deep-space probes were successful. The degree of success for all major launchings ran better than 50 percent. The American effort has been based on a broad scope of inquiry and includes long-range communications, weather reporting, navigation and surveillance vehicles, as well as information-gathering satellites.
During the same period the Soviets launched four Earth satellites, one deep-space probe, one lunar-impact probe and one satellite into a much elongated Earth orbit which circled and photographed the Moon. Most of their vehicles have been substantially heavier than those launched by the United States, although complete information on their scientific purposes and the result obtained has never been disclosed.
The world political value of such programs cannot be discounted. To the extent that the welfare of the United States depends upon its stature in the eyes of the rest of the world (which is believed considerable) and to the extent that the scientific capability of the United States influences such stature (which is also believed considerable) our space venture has very marked practical utility. It may even mean the difference between freedom and dictatorship, between survival and oblivion.
A natural outgrowth of the military and prestige facets of space exploration is the question of whether this activity, in time, will replace the forces which have historically driven nations into armed conflict.
Any number of social scientists and historians have speculated that this might occur. The theory is that the conquest of space may prove to be the moral equivalent of war by substituting for certain material and psychological needs usually supplied through war; that the absorption of energies, resources, imagination, and aggressiveness in pursuit of the space adventure may become an effective way of maintaining peace.
Put another way, nations might become "extroverted" to the point where their urge to overcome the unknown would dwarf their historic desires for power, wealth, and recognition—attributes which have so often led to war in the past.
The fact that the United Nations, late in 1959, agreed to set up a permanent Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space attests to the hopes and potential of such a development.
Of course, whether this condition will actually develop is anybody's guess. But in a world where brute force is becoming increasingly dangerous and catastrophic, the bare possibility of such a result should not be ignored by those who may be contemplating the values of space exploration. It could be the highest value of them all.
Figure 5.
Figure5.—Today's assembly lines for automobiles and aircraft are being supplemented by the growing astronautics industry, here shown turning out capsules for manned space flight.
We in the United States believe that we have the world's highest standard of living. Our current wealth, prosperity, consumer goods and gross national product are at a peak hitherto unreached by any country.
Nevertheless, economists who see the steady preponderant outflow of goods and capital from the United States and who study the rising rate of economic capability in other countries can find little room for complacence in the present status of things. They are also well aware of the Soviet Union's announced intent of beating the United States at its own game: economic expansion.
Military historians are likewise aware that even strong economies, when they become static, do not guarantee safety. On the contrary, they seem likely to induce a dangerous national apathy.
This syndrome is familiar in history. Carthage suffered from it. Carthage enjoyed enormous prosperity and was flourishing when she was destroyed by her Roman competitor. Much later, Rome had a gross national product without precedence. Her wealth and splendor were unsurpassed when the Vandals and Visigoths began their onslaughts. Neither Rome's great engineering skills, its architectural grandeur, its great laws, nor, in the last analysis, its gross national product, could prevail against the barbarians. Their GNP was negligible; nevertheless they ransacked the mighty Roman Empire.The gross national product is no insurance of survival. It is not a sign of military strength, and indeed, it may not even be sufficient for the economic battle.[25]
This syndrome is familiar in history. Carthage suffered from it. Carthage enjoyed enormous prosperity and was flourishing when she was destroyed by her Roman competitor. Much later, Rome had a gross national product without precedence. Her wealth and splendor were unsurpassed when the Vandals and Visigoths began their onslaughts. Neither Rome's great engineering skills, its architectural grandeur, its great laws, nor, in the last analysis, its gross national product, could prevail against the barbarians. Their GNP was negligible; nevertheless they ransacked the mighty Roman Empire.
The gross national product is no insurance of survival. It is not a sign of military strength, and indeed, it may not even be sufficient for the economic battle.[25]
Thus from the point of view of economic stimulus and continued commercial dynamism, space exploration should be—and is proving to be—a godsend.
It is impossible to arrive at accurate figures which might help indicate the extent of this effort in dollars and cents. But we do know that the U.S. Government is presently putting about $3.5 billion annually into the research and development phases. How much more may be going into the purchase of completed space hardware is difficult to say; certainly it is a higher figure still. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration, in presenting its 10-year plan to Congress recently, indicated that this agency alone expects to average between $1.5 and $2 billion a year during the next decade.
The amount of effort going into space-related programs on the part of private industry, measured in dollars, again can only be roughly estimated. But it is a sizable figure and is known to be growing. It may amount to half the governmental research and development outlay.
These figures add up to a very important segment of the national economy, and the fact that they represent a highly active and progressive segment is particularly heartening to the economic experts of the Nation.
One of the most useful characteristics of the space program is that its needs "spread across the entire industrial spectrum—electronics, metals, fuels, ceramics, machinery, plastics, instruments, textiles, thermals, cryogenics, and a thousand other areas."[26]The benefits from space exploration thus have a way of filtering into almost every area of the American economy, either directly or indirectly. "Perhaps the greatest economic treasure is the advanced technology required for more and more difficult space missions. This new technology is advancing at a meteoric rate. Its benefits are spreading throughout our whole industrial and economic system."[27]
A graphic example of the manner in which the technological and economic benefits from the space program can grow may be seen from the development of the X-15. This rocket craft, designed to "fly" beyond the Earth's atmosphere at altitudes up to 100 miles, is the product of 400 different firms and contractors.
Inasmuch as other nations, those which generally have lagged behind the United States in technical know-how, are now rapidly bringing their technology up to date—this windfall from our space program is especially opportune. It is providing the incentive to American industry to remain in the world's technological van. And it is emphasizing that economic leadership is a dynamic thing, that U.S. mass-production techniques which have enabled the Nation to compete so well in foreign markets are no longer, of themselves, sufficient guarantee of superior economic position.
While America's space exploration program, on a formal basis, came into being as recently as October 1958, its impact on the national economy has probably been sharper than that of any single new program ever conceived. For there are now at least 5,000 companies or research organizations engaged in the missile-space industry. And more than 3,200 different space-related products have been required and are being produced to date.[28]
One can only speculate on the economic effect which the space program is having on investments or on investors who have no other connection with it. It seems significant, however, that the stock market pages in recent months have come to devote a good deal of attention to "space issues." Financially speaking, space has thus become a major category. That it has done so in such a short period would seem to have marked implications for the future.
In brief, space exploration is becoming almost an industry in itself, and there are those who believe it destined to become the largest industrial spur in the Nation before too many years have gone by.
One expert, an experienced hand not only in astronautics but in the business world as well, describes the outlook in this fashion: "A great industrial change is taking place in the United States. The aircraft industry, which long considered missiles as a small department, now finds itself becoming a part of the large missile and spaceflight industry. It is an elemental evolution. An industrial change is upon us comparable to the advent of mercantilism."[29]He has predicted that within a decade or so the astronautics industry will be larger than the automotive industry of the entire world.
While such predictions may be overly optimistic, they can scarcely be dismissed as irresponsible in the light of what has already happened.
Figure 6.
Figure6.—Booster engines of tomorrow, such as this mockup of the 1,500,000 pound thrust single engine, will place broad requirements on men and materials.
Whether or not we think of the missile-space business as being a self-contained industry, the requirements and exigencies of space exploration can be expected to result in the creation of new or greatly strengthened industrial branches, for example:
Research
This phase of the American economy is having a phenomenal growth. Not only have many established industries now placed research high on their organizational charts, but hundreds, perhaps thousands, of new businesses are springing up which are entirely devoted to research and development. R. & D., as it is called, is their stock in trade, their only product. And space exploration appears to have given them their greatest boost.
One recent study on the subject regards research as the fourth major industrial revolution to take place in American history, followingthe advents of steam mechanization, steel, electricity-and-internal combustion engines.
The fourth industrial revolution, ours, is unique in the number of people working on it, its complexity, and its power to push the economy at a rate previously impossible.Today between 5,000 and 50,000technical entrepreneurs(top R. & D. engineers, leading scientists, and highly effective technical managers) are directly analogous to an estimated 50 to 500 men in all of the first three periods. Thus about 100 times the effort in terms of qualitative (effective, creative, patent-producing) manpower is being spent on the fourth revolution as on the other three combined.Total manpower, of course, is much more than that: there are probably 700,000 engineers and industrially oriented scientists in the United States today, as against 2,000 even as late as Edison's first high voltage light bulb. Whereas Edison worked with 20 to 100 scientists in his laboratory, and Fulton labored alone, there are 5,000 industrial laboratories today employing from 20 to 7,300 technical men each.[30]
The fourth industrial revolution, ours, is unique in the number of people working on it, its complexity, and its power to push the economy at a rate previously impossible.
Today between 5,000 and 50,000technical entrepreneurs(top R. & D. engineers, leading scientists, and highly effective technical managers) are directly analogous to an estimated 50 to 500 men in all of the first three periods. Thus about 100 times the effort in terms of qualitative (effective, creative, patent-producing) manpower is being spent on the fourth revolution as on the other three combined.
Total manpower, of course, is much more than that: there are probably 700,000 engineers and industrially oriented scientists in the United States today, as against 2,000 even as late as Edison's first high voltage light bulb. Whereas Edison worked with 20 to 100 scientists in his laboratory, and Fulton labored alone, there are 5,000 industrial laboratories today employing from 20 to 7,300 technical men each.[30]
New power sources
One of the greatest demands of spacecraft of the future will be for new sources of power. While rocket propulsion power is part of this picture, the power needed to operate space vehicles after launching may prove to be the larger and more important need. Progress has already been made in this direction by use of special kinds of batteries and solar cells which convert the sun's rays into electric current. But these will need supplementing or replacing eventually as greater power becomes necessary.
It would be rash to predict the outcome of this complicated field, but certain very promising methods can be listed.
One is the fuel cell, which converts fuel directly into electric power without the necessity for machinery or working parts. Much progress has been made on the fuel cell in recent months. In England a 40-cell unit has been used to drive a forklift truck and to do electric welding. It develops up to 5 kilowatts.[31]In the United States a 30-cell portable powerplant developing 200 watts has been delivered to the Army and Marine Corps,[32]while a 1,000-unit cell has been developed in the Midwest which provides 15 kilowatts and drives a tractor.[33]
Another method is plasma power, or power generated through the use of hot ionized gas. Such gas acts as a conductor of electricity and when employed as a "magnetohydrodynamics" generator it can be used for a variety of purposes. It has the advantage of being simple, rugged, and efficient. Some day it may also prove very economical. Already 10 municipal areas along the Mason-Dixon line are preparing to experiment with electric power derived from this source.[34]It has been estimated that "as much as 1 million watts could be generated by shooting a stream of plasma at speeds three times that of sound through a magnetic field only 3 feet long and with the magnetic poles 6 inches apart."[35]
Figure 7.
Figure7.—The possible power source for space ships of the future, the ion jet, has significant counterpart uses for the commercial world.
Another possible source is photoelectric power. While a number of very difficult problems block the practical generation of this kind of power, the astronautics research division of one American company has now succeeded in increasing the efficiency of photoelectric cells by a factor of more than 300.[36]So the possibilities in this area are looking up. As discussed in section II, photon power derived from the ejection of electromagnetic rays may someday prove a source for accelerating vehicles once they have escaped from Earth's gravity.
Another possibility, of course, is atomic energy about which much has been said and written. If, as some scientists believe, extensive space exploration by manned crews will depend on harnessing this great source of energy—both for booster purposes and for operating spacecraft in the distant parts of our interplanetary system—this fact alone may assure that the obstacles to practical nuclear energy are overcome faster and more completely than would otherwise be the case. It is interesting to note that the science of controlling nuclear fusion (as opposed to fission) has come so far in the past several years that 11 private power companies are pooling their resources to advance this state of the art.[37]
New water sources and uses
A look into the future indicates very strongly that water will become a major world problem, possibly by the beginning of the 1970's, which is likely to be another "dry" decade. Present water supplies, coupled with the increasing population and the many new uses for water, are barely adequate now. In another 10 years the situation could be critical.
Part of our national space program includes studies on how to use and reuse water to the best advantage of the human in space. A number of avenues are being followed, including vaporization of volatiles in biological wastes.[38]
From research of this kind it is more than possible that knowledge will evolve which will prove useful in the practical production of fresh water from other chemical compounds or mixtures, including seawater. More than that, it could lead to new ways for extracting much needed materials from the sea. Seawater contains 40 basic elements, 19 in relatively copious amounts. These elements run from 18,980 parts parts per million of chlorine to 0,0000002 part per billion of radium. Yet, so far, we have learned to extract only bromine and magnesium in useful amounts.[39]Conversely, the study of how marine animals extract rare elements from the seawater, such as the extraction of copper compounds by the octopus, could provide astronautic researchers with important clues for keeping man alive in space.
Noise and human engineering
This is a field in which research has been going on seriously for only a few years. Most of it has developed since World War II. Human engineering is involved primarily with the reaction of people to their immediate surroundings and how to arrange those surroundings in order to permit the most comfortable and efficient functioning within them.
The noise aspect of human engineering, as it may develop from the problems of astronauts operating in a silent world, could lead to a variety of innovations for improving the performance of workers or even the general attitude of people living in urban areas. In today's world, where humans are subjected to so many different kinds, degrees, and sources of noise, psychologists consider the matter to be of no small importance.
High speed-light weight computers
Space vehicles now need electronic computers for determining the moment of launch, for fixing orbits, for navigation, and for processing collected data. Computers will precede man into space. They will take over guidance and decision functions beyond limits of human physiology, psychology, versatility, and reaction time.[40]
Space vehicles now need electronic computers for determining the moment of launch, for fixing orbits, for navigation, and for processing collected data. Computers will precede man into space. They will take over guidance and decision functions beyond limits of human physiology, psychology, versatility, and reaction time.[40]
The trend in this direction is marked and space exploration is accelerating it. Because of weight and size limitations, and due to the genius of research, the giant electronic brain of today will soon disappear and be replaced with an apparatus only a small fraction of its present size. The implications for the business and professional world are great. And a not inconsiderable side effect, according to many modern technicians, will be the flood of brainpower released from time-consuming chores and thus made available for more basic, creative thought.
Figure 8.
Solid state physics
Few areas of effort are advancing this extremely promising art faster than space exploration, which places a premium on light weight and small size. The miniaturization of equipment being placed in U.S. satellites, for example, has been one of the contemporary wonders of the world of science.
A big part of this march toward tiny equipment is in the field of electronics, where the process is called microminiaturization, molecular electronics, micromodular engineering or a number of other terms. In essence it refers to the greatly reduced size of equipment through "integrated circuits," coupled functions, the building of complicated components into a single molecular design and so on.
The art has proceeded to the point where complete radios can be reduced to the size of a lump of sugar.
Clearly, this trend holds almost unlimited utility for the home, the factory, the marketplace, the highway, the hospital or just about any other arena one cares to name. So great is the promise that virtually every electronics company in the country is undertaking "to take the state of the art into fundamentally new areas" and there exploit its many possibilities.[41]
It may be that our national space exploration program will also result in stronger economic alliances, not only within our own national borders but on an international basis. Interesting speculation to this effect has been advanced by a prominent official of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
I think we may expect that the combined influence of jet aircraft and satellite communications systems will enable us to integrate the now somewhat distant States of Hawaii and Alaska with the rest of the States as thoroughly as the East and West are already integrated. Second, and in many ways a more intriguing possibility, is the prospect of developing a truly international economic organization. It is quite apparent that even today a large fraction of the economy of the United States is dependent upon foreign trade. Some nations of the world, such as England or Japan, are almost entirely dependent upon foreign trade for their basic standard of living; however, current foreign trade practices are necessarily based on a somewhat leisurely pattern enforced by our current communications capacity. Whether we will be able to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of our activities in foreign trade through the use of the new communications facilities now foreseen will of course depend upon our political ability to work out viable arrangements for our mutual benefit with our oversea friends.One of the lessons of history in the fields of communications is that an increase in capability has never gone unused. The capability of doing new things has always resulted in it being found profitable to use this capability in all fields, both commercial and governmental.[42]
I think we may expect that the combined influence of jet aircraft and satellite communications systems will enable us to integrate the now somewhat distant States of Hawaii and Alaska with the rest of the States as thoroughly as the East and West are already integrated. Second, and in many ways a more intriguing possibility, is the prospect of developing a truly international economic organization. It is quite apparent that even today a large fraction of the economy of the United States is dependent upon foreign trade. Some nations of the world, such as England or Japan, are almost entirely dependent upon foreign trade for their basic standard of living; however, current foreign trade practices are necessarily based on a somewhat leisurely pattern enforced by our current communications capacity. Whether we will be able to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of our activities in foreign trade through the use of the new communications facilities now foreseen will of course depend upon our political ability to work out viable arrangements for our mutual benefit with our oversea friends.
One of the lessons of history in the fields of communications is that an increase in capability has never gone unused. The capability of doing new things has always resulted in it being found profitable to use this capability in all fields, both commercial and governmental.[42]
Up to now space exploration has been more or less the exclusive domain of the Federal Government. It seems likely that this situation will not change much in the near future. But the question finally arises: Is the nature of space such that the traditional American concept of private enterprise can have no place in it?
On this score there is debate. Recently, however, there have been indications that businessmen feel they will be able to conduct certain business operations and services in space.
The space frontier will inevitably increase the scale of thinking and risk taking by business. When we are dealing withspace, we are dealing with a technology that requires a planetary scale to stage it; decades of time to develop it; and much bigger investments to get across the threshold of economic return than is customary in business today. Business must now think in international terms, and in terms of the next business generation. It must step up to the big risks with the same vision that enabled an earlier generation of builders to push railroad tracks out across the wilderness and lay the foundations of our modern economy.[43]
The space frontier will inevitably increase the scale of thinking and risk taking by business. When we are dealing withspace, we are dealing with a technology that requires a planetary scale to stage it; decades of time to develop it; and much bigger investments to get across the threshold of economic return than is customary in business today. Business must now think in international terms, and in terms of the next business generation. It must step up to the big risks with the same vision that enabled an earlier generation of builders to push railroad tracks out across the wilderness and lay the foundations of our modern economy.[43]
Incidentally, it should be pointed out that space exploration is already encouraging the formation of business of all sizes. Myriads of small businesses have sprung up, many of them "suppliers of specialty equipment for the larger concerns that have responsibility for major components and systems."[44]
To what extent will private enterprise become involved? Here is one view:
As the years pass by, and space apparatus becomes more reliable, and the work of obtaining scientific data from space acquires a more routine character—certainly many of the necessary operating facilities could be put on a self-liquidating, private-industry basis.Probably the first opportunities for private investment will come in the commercial use of satellites. Looking even further into the future of space exploration, perhaps there would be economic justification for a privately owned launching service that would put objects into space for the peaceful purposes of friendly governments, international agencies, industry, and the universities.The base itself, from which the commercial launching service would operate, might be modeled after a port authority. Such a nonmilitary, international space port could develop as a center for many private enterprises related to space operations. These might include service and maintenance facilities; data-processing services; space communication centers; laboratory facilities; standardized equipment for satellites and other space vehicles; fuel supplies; medical services; biological services; and general supplies.Moving away from the idea of a commercial space port, must all future tracking stations, observatories, and data-processing stations be Government owned? How about experimental stations for the simulation of space environments? How about laboratories and stations actually constructed in space? Or will privately owned facilities one day offer these services on an international basis to governments, industries, universities, and international agencies?Most likely the first businesses suitable for commercial operation, using space technologies, will be worldwide communication by satellite, private weather forecasting, and high-speed Earth transport by rocket.[45]
As the years pass by, and space apparatus becomes more reliable, and the work of obtaining scientific data from space acquires a more routine character—certainly many of the necessary operating facilities could be put on a self-liquidating, private-industry basis.
Probably the first opportunities for private investment will come in the commercial use of satellites. Looking even further into the future of space exploration, perhaps there would be economic justification for a privately owned launching service that would put objects into space for the peaceful purposes of friendly governments, international agencies, industry, and the universities.
The base itself, from which the commercial launching service would operate, might be modeled after a port authority. Such a nonmilitary, international space port could develop as a center for many private enterprises related to space operations. These might include service and maintenance facilities; data-processing services; space communication centers; laboratory facilities; standardized equipment for satellites and other space vehicles; fuel supplies; medical services; biological services; and general supplies.
Moving away from the idea of a commercial space port, must all future tracking stations, observatories, and data-processing stations be Government owned? How about experimental stations for the simulation of space environments? How about laboratories and stations actually constructed in space? Or will privately owned facilities one day offer these services on an international basis to governments, industries, universities, and international agencies?
Most likely the first businesses suitable for commercial operation, using space technologies, will be worldwide communication by satellite, private weather forecasting, and high-speed Earth transport by rocket.[45]
Figure 9.
There probably is no reliable way to gage the number of Americans who are employed today because of the national space effort, nor to estimate accurately the number who are likely to be employed in the years ahead.
This much can be said, though. They already number in the tens of thousands, probably in the hundreds of thousands.
The Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration has reported that his agency presently employs 18,000 persons. And he adds "in spite of the size of this organization, we estimate that approximately 75 percent of our budget will be expended through contracts with industry, educational institutions, and other nongovernmental groups."
Thus the number of persons privately employed who are working on NASA projects is, of itself, a high figure. The number employed in, by, or for the Department of Defense on missiles or space-related projects is undoubtedly higher.
In addition to these must be added the men and women employed by private industry in a capacity not directly related to the space program but whose jobs have been created nonetheless by its stimulus.
The fact is that the military and peaceful needs of the space program are already employing a significant percentage of the industrial work force, and will make up an even larger proportion of total employment and production of the country as the years go by. The aircraft industry, for example, is broadening its scope to include missile and space technologies. Much of the electronics industry is devoted to missile and space needs. The communications, chemical, and metallurgical industries are increasingly involved. These industries are already among the largest employers in the United States, and they are the major employers of the Nation's technical manpower. Hence we are not speaking of a minor element in the national economy, but of its leading growth industries.[46]
The fact is that the military and peaceful needs of the space program are already employing a significant percentage of the industrial work force, and will make up an even larger proportion of total employment and production of the country as the years go by. The aircraft industry, for example, is broadening its scope to include missile and space technologies. Much of the electronics industry is devoted to missile and space needs. The communications, chemical, and metallurgical industries are increasingly involved. These industries are already among the largest employers in the United States, and they are the major employers of the Nation's technical manpower. Hence we are not speaking of a minor element in the national economy, but of its leading growth industries.[46]
This phase of the space program's value should not be eyed merely from the standpoint of scientists and the labor market. It has major significance for the professions—for doctors, lawyers, architects, teachers, and engineers. All of these will be vitally concerned with space exploration in the future. The doctor with space medicine and its results; the lawyer with business relations and a vastly increased need for knowledge in international law; the architect with the construction of spaceports and data and tracking facilities; the teacher with the booming demand for new types of space-engendered curricula.
As for the engineer—
In this pyramid of scientific and engineering effort there will be found requirements for the services of almost every type of scientist and engineer to a greater or less degree. In the forefront, of course, are the aerospace and astronautical engineers but the development of the Saturnlaunching vehicle has also enlisted the cooperation of civil, mechanical, electrical, metallurgical, chemical, automotive, structural, radio, and electronics engineers. Much of their work relates to ground handling equipment, special automotive and barge equipment, checkout equipment, and all the other devices needed to support the design, construction, testing, launching, and data gathering.[47]
In this pyramid of scientific and engineering effort there will be found requirements for the services of almost every type of scientist and engineer to a greater or less degree. In the forefront, of course, are the aerospace and astronautical engineers but the development of the Saturnlaunching vehicle has also enlisted the cooperation of civil, mechanical, electrical, metallurgical, chemical, automotive, structural, radio, and electronics engineers. Much of their work relates to ground handling equipment, special automotive and barge equipment, checkout equipment, and all the other devices needed to support the design, construction, testing, launching, and data gathering.[47]
Finally, an economic value of extreme importance could be the ultimate role of the space program in modifying the threat to labor which is inherent in automation and disarmament. Space exploration, opening up new and profitable vistas, could take up much of the slack thus imposed and do it at a higher and more intellectual job level.
Automation, as we know, is already in the process. In agriculture alone it has bitten deeply into the laboring force and yet produces greater crops than ever.[48]It is gathering strength in many other fields.
Disarmament is a long way from being a reality. But all nations of the world are striving for it, or at least giving lipservice to its principles, so it may one day emerge as a reality. If this happens, space exploration again may be a most important element in taking up the slack which a prominent reduction in defense activity could not help but bring about.
Indeed, there are some who already foresee a complete substitution of space for defense, and who prognosticate that in the 1990's "the economy of nations is now based on the astronautics industry, instead of war."[49]Certainly, some new economic force would be crucial to nations deprived of the need for devising and manufacturing weapons.
Figure 10.
Figure10.—A host of new materials, skills, and engineering techniques are bound up in the construction of rocket engines such as this first stage booster.
The so-called side effects of the space exploration program are showing a remarkable ability to produce innovations which, in turn, improve the quality of everyday work and everyday living throughout the United States.
In setting forth specific ways and means in which the space program is producing practical uses, it must be kept in mind that no attempt is made here to separate uses resulting from the civil phases of the program from those developed by the military phases. Inasmuch as the two are closely intertwined, it would seem impractical to do so. And, in instances where the same or similar research is being conducted by a single contractor on behalf of both phases, it is usually impossible to do so.
This category of the practical uses of the space program is impressive indeed.
Most of us are familiar with the plans which the United States has for using artificial satellites in ways which will be beneficial to all mankind. These include the satellite used for worldwide communications, for global television, for quick and accurate navigation, and for much improved weather prediction and weather understanding.
Here, however, is a summary of space-related developments about which the American public has heard considerably less:
First, there is the high-speed computer. Developed initially to meet military demands for faster calculation, the computer is an integral part of American industry, making it possible to do many operations with a high degree of efficiency and accuracy. Thermoelectric devices for heating and cooling, now adapted for commercial applications, were originally designed to provide energy sources for space vehicles. The glass industry, as a result of work done during and after the Second World War on lenses and plastics, promises substantial gains in the consumer fields of optics and foods. Pyroceram, developed for missile radomes, is now being used in the manufacture of pots and pans. Materials suitable for use in the nuclear preservation of food may make us even better fed than we already are.Medical research, and our health problems, can use such things as film resistance thermometers. Electronic equipment capable of measuring low-level electrical signals is being adapted to measure body temperature and blood flow. In a dramatic breakthrough, illustrating the unexpected benefits of research, it has been found that a derivative of hydrazine, developed as a liquid missile propellant, is useful in treating certain mental illnesses and tuberculosis.Of course, the aeronautics industry has benefited tremendously. Engines, automatic pilots, radar systems, flight equipment, capable of meeting the high standards required by space vehicles represent a great improvement over our already excellent aircraft.A plasma arc torch (has been) developed for fabricating ultrahard materials and coatings by mass production methods. The torch, an outgrowth of plasma technology, develops heats of 30,000 degrees and can work within tolerances of two-thousandths of an inch. Another application from the missile field, which shows real possibilities, is a reliable flow meter that has no packings or bearings. This was first developed for measuring liquefied gases and should have a very wide industrial usefulness. It may even lead to improvements in marine devices for measuring distance and velocity.Ground-to-air missiles that ride a beam to their targets must measure the distance to the target plane with an accuracy of a few feet in several miles. This principle, now being applied to surveying techniques, has revolutionized the surveying industry.The solenoid valve, which seats itself softly enough to eliminate vibration, has been applied very satisfactorily to home-heating systems.The use of the jet drilling for mining is another, and worthy of amplification. Missiles are already working the economically unminable taconite ore of the Mesabi Range, have helped build the St. Lawrence Seaway, and are bringing down costs in quarrying.It is estimated that taconite will be supplying about a third of our ores in less than 20 years. Until 1947 we were unable to mine this very hard rock, and then suitable rotary and churn drills were produced. Jet drilling, now available, cracks and crumbles stone layers by thermally induced expansion and is somewhere between 3 and 5 times faster than rotaries.Jet piercing can take us far deeper into the earth than we have been able to go so far, to new sources of ore and hydrocarbons.In stone quarrying, jet spalling and channeling are proven techniques. Stone quarrying has been expensive and wasteful heretofore. Rocket flame equipment allows cutting along the natural cleavage planes, or crystal boundaries—hence cuts stone thin without danger of cracking and, in addition, produces a fine finish that cannot be obtained when cutting by steel or abrasive tools.Scientific literature is beginning to contain speculations on using the principle of the missile engine to save unstable intermediate products of the chemical processes. The high heats achieved in the rocket engine can, perhaps, be utilized to produce desired products that would be lost by slow cooling. But the high rate of cooling accomplished by expanding gases through the engine nozzle, it is thought, would save these unstable compounds.Infrared has come into its own through missile electronics. Infrared—since it cannot be jammed—appears to be challenging radar for use in guidance devices, tracking systems, and reconnaissance vehicles. Infrared is being used industrially to measure the compositions of fluids in complex processes of chemical petroleum refining and distilling. Infrared cameras are used in analyzing metallurgical material processing operations, to aid in accuracy and quality control. The entire infrared field should be significantly assisted in its growth and application through our missile-space programs.Another very promising outcome from missile development is a computer converter that can quickly transform analogue signals—such as pressure measurements—into digital form.In the near future, when guidance devices permit soft landing, rocket cargo and passenger transport will become feasible. Mail may become almost as swift as telephone.We are making rapid progress in the economics of space travel: payload costs for Vanguard were about $1 billion a pound; for the near future launchings, payload cost should be about $1,000 per pound. When payload costs are about a hundred dollars a pound we may expect commercial space flight.[50]
First, there is the high-speed computer. Developed initially to meet military demands for faster calculation, the computer is an integral part of American industry, making it possible to do many operations with a high degree of efficiency and accuracy. Thermoelectric devices for heating and cooling, now adapted for commercial applications, were originally designed to provide energy sources for space vehicles. The glass industry, as a result of work done during and after the Second World War on lenses and plastics, promises substantial gains in the consumer fields of optics and foods. Pyroceram, developed for missile radomes, is now being used in the manufacture of pots and pans. Materials suitable for use in the nuclear preservation of food may make us even better fed than we already are.
Medical research, and our health problems, can use such things as film resistance thermometers. Electronic equipment capable of measuring low-level electrical signals is being adapted to measure body temperature and blood flow. In a dramatic breakthrough, illustrating the unexpected benefits of research, it has been found that a derivative of hydrazine, developed as a liquid missile propellant, is useful in treating certain mental illnesses and tuberculosis.
Of course, the aeronautics industry has benefited tremendously. Engines, automatic pilots, radar systems, flight equipment, capable of meeting the high standards required by space vehicles represent a great improvement over our already excellent aircraft.
A plasma arc torch (has been) developed for fabricating ultrahard materials and coatings by mass production methods. The torch, an outgrowth of plasma technology, develops heats of 30,000 degrees and can work within tolerances of two-thousandths of an inch. Another application from the missile field, which shows real possibilities, is a reliable flow meter that has no packings or bearings. This was first developed for measuring liquefied gases and should have a very wide industrial usefulness. It may even lead to improvements in marine devices for measuring distance and velocity.
Ground-to-air missiles that ride a beam to their targets must measure the distance to the target plane with an accuracy of a few feet in several miles. This principle, now being applied to surveying techniques, has revolutionized the surveying industry.
The solenoid valve, which seats itself softly enough to eliminate vibration, has been applied very satisfactorily to home-heating systems.
The use of the jet drilling for mining is another, and worthy of amplification. Missiles are already working the economically unminable taconite ore of the Mesabi Range, have helped build the St. Lawrence Seaway, and are bringing down costs in quarrying.
It is estimated that taconite will be supplying about a third of our ores in less than 20 years. Until 1947 we were unable to mine this very hard rock, and then suitable rotary and churn drills were produced. Jet drilling, now available, cracks and crumbles stone layers by thermally induced expansion and is somewhere between 3 and 5 times faster than rotaries.
Jet piercing can take us far deeper into the earth than we have been able to go so far, to new sources of ore and hydrocarbons.
In stone quarrying, jet spalling and channeling are proven techniques. Stone quarrying has been expensive and wasteful heretofore. Rocket flame equipment allows cutting along the natural cleavage planes, or crystal boundaries—hence cuts stone thin without danger of cracking and, in addition, produces a fine finish that cannot be obtained when cutting by steel or abrasive tools.
Scientific literature is beginning to contain speculations on using the principle of the missile engine to save unstable intermediate products of the chemical processes. The high heats achieved in the rocket engine can, perhaps, be utilized to produce desired products that would be lost by slow cooling. But the high rate of cooling accomplished by expanding gases through the engine nozzle, it is thought, would save these unstable compounds.
Infrared has come into its own through missile electronics. Infrared—since it cannot be jammed—appears to be challenging radar for use in guidance devices, tracking systems, and reconnaissance vehicles. Infrared is being used industrially to measure the compositions of fluids in complex processes of chemical petroleum refining and distilling. Infrared cameras are used in analyzing metallurgical material processing operations, to aid in accuracy and quality control. The entire infrared field should be significantly assisted in its growth and application through our missile-space programs.
Another very promising outcome from missile development is a computer converter that can quickly transform analogue signals—such as pressure measurements—into digital form.
In the near future, when guidance devices permit soft landing, rocket cargo and passenger transport will become feasible. Mail may become almost as swift as telephone.
We are making rapid progress in the economics of space travel: payload costs for Vanguard were about $1 billion a pound; for the near future launchings, payload cost should be about $1,000 per pound. When payload costs are about a hundred dollars a pound we may expect commercial space flight.[50]
Hundreds of other examples of the space program's value for everyday living could be cited.
One with wide possibilities is a new welding process by using a high-powered electron beam gun, developed for the fabrication of spaceships and other space vehicles. This method permits welding joints capable of withstanding temperatures up to 3,000° F.; it can be used on metals such as molybdenum and pure tungsten. And, its developers say, it results in welded joints that have deep penetration and narrow weld beads that are virtually free of contamination.[51]
Another ingenius application, resulting from the Navy's space research program, has significant utility for medicine and surgery. This is a glass fiber device which, when placed in the mouth during dental work or in the area of surgical incision, permits a much magnified televising of the operation. It holds considerable promise for teaching techniques in many fields.[52]
Another example is a finely woven stainless steel cloth designed for parachuting space vehicles back to Earth. The cloth is made of fine wire of great strength which can withstand tremendous temperatures and chemical contamination. The wire from which the cloth is woven is about one-fifth the thickness of a human hair and is believed to have marked potential for industry and consumers alike.
Here is an additional list of examples:[53]