CHAPTER III.The Stability of the Solar System.
There is a consequence resulting from the actual structure of the solar system, which has been brought to light by the investigations of mathematicians concerning the cause and laws of its motions, and which has an important bearing on our argument. It appears that the arrangement which at present obtains is precisely that which is necessary to secure thestabilityof the system. This point we must endeavour to explain.
If each planet were to revolve round the sun without being affected by the other planets, there would be a certain degree of regularity in its motion; and this regularity would continue for ever. But it appears, by the discovery of the law of universalgravitation, that the planets do not execute their movements in this insulated and independent manner. Each of them is acted on by the attraction of all the rest. The Earth is constantly drawn by Venus, by Mars, by Jupiter, bodies of various magnitudes, perpetually changing their distances and positions with regard to the earth; the Earth in return is perpetually drawing these bodies. What, in the course of time, will be the result of this mutual attraction?
All the planets are very small compared with the sun, and therefore the derangement which they produce in the motion of one of their number will be very small in the course of one revolution. But this gives us no security that the derangement may not become very large in the course of many revolutions. The cause acts perpetually, and it has the whole extent of time to work in. Is it not easily conceivable then that in the lapse of ages the derangements of the motions of the planets may accumulate, the orbits may change their form, their mutual distances may be much increased or much diminished? Is it not possible that these changes may go on without limit, and end in the complete subversion and ruin of the system?
If, for instance, the result of this mutual gravitation should be to increase considerably the eccentricity of the earth’s orbit, that is to make it a longer and longer oval; or to make the moon approach perpetually nearer and nearer the earth every revolution; it is easy to see that in the one case our year would change its character, as we have noticed in the last section; in the other, our satellite might finally fall to the earth, which must of course bring about a dreadful catastrophe. If the positions of the planetary orbits, with respect to that of the earth, were to change much, the planets might sometimes come very near us, and thus exaggerate the effects of their attraction beyond calculable limits. Under such circumstances, we might have “years of unequallength, and seasons of capricious temperature, planets and moons of portentous size and aspect, glaring and disappearing at uncertain intervals;” tides like deluges, sweeping over whole continents; and, perhaps, the collision of two of the planets, and the consequent destruction of all organization on both of them.
Nor is it, on a common examination of the history of the solar system, at all clear that there is no tendency to indefinite derangement. The fact really is, that changes are taking place in the motions of the heavenly bodies, which have gone on progressively from the first dawn of science. The eccentricity of the earth’s orbit has been diminishing from the earliest observations to our times. The moon has been moving quicker and quicker from the time of the first recorded eclipses, and is now in advance, by about four times her own breadth, of what her place would have been if it had not been affected by this acceleration. The obliquity of the ecliptic also is in a state of diminution, and is now about two-fifths of a degree less than it was in the time of Aristotle. Will these changes go on without limit or reaction? If so, we tend by natural causes to a termination of the present system of things: If not, by what adjustment or combination are we secured from such a tendency? Is the systemstable, and if so, what is the condition on which its stability depends?
To answer these questions is far from easy. The mechanical problem which they involve is no less than this;—Having given the directions and velocities with which about thirty bodies are moving at one time, to find their places and motions after any number of ages; each of the bodies, all the while, attracting all the others, and being attracted by them all.
It may readily be imagined that this is a problem of extreme complexity, when it is considered that every newconfigurationor arrangement of the bodies will give rise to a new amount of action oneach; and every new action to a new configuration. Accordingly, the mathematical investigation of such questions as the above was too difficult to be attempted in the earlier periods of the progress of Physical Astronomy. Newton did not undertake to demonstrate either the stability or the instability of the system. The decision of this point required a great number of preparatory steps and simplifications, and such progress in the invention and improvement of mathematical methods, as occupied the best mathematicians of Europe for the greater part of last century. But, towards the end of that time, it was shown by Lagrange and Laplace that the arrangements of the solar system are stable: that in the long run, the orbits and motions remain unchanged; and that the changes in the orbits, which take place in shorter periods, never transgress certain very moderate limits. Each orbit undergoes deviations on this side and on that of its average state; but these deviations are never very great, and it finally recovers from them, so that the average is preserved. The planets produce perpetual perturbations in each other’s motions, but these perturbations are not indefinitely progressive, they are periodical: they reach amaximumvalue and then diminish. The periods which this restoration requires are, for the most part, enormous; not less than thousands, and, in some instances, millions of years; and hence it is, that some of these apparent derangements have been going on in the same direction since the beginning of the history of the world. But the restoration is in the sequel as complete as the derangement; and in the meantime the disturbance never attains a sufficient amount seriously to alter the adaptations of the system.[17]
The same examination of the subject by which this is proved, points out also the conditions on which this stability depends. “I have succeeded in demonstrating,”says Laplace, “that whatever be the masses of the planets, in consequence of the fact that they all move in the same direction, in orbits of small eccentricity, and slightly inclined to each other—their secular inequalities are periodical and included within narrow limits; so that the planetary system will only oscillate about a mean state, and will never deviate from it except by a very small quantity. The ellipses of the planets have been, and always will be, nearly circular. The ecliptic will never coincide with the equator, and the entire extent of the variation in its inclination cannot exceed three degrees.”
There exists, therefore, it appears, in the solar system, a provision for the permanent regularity of its motions; and this provision is found in the fact that the orbits of the planetsare nearly circular, and nearly in the same plane, and the motions all in the same direction, namely, from west to east.[18]
Now is it probable that the occurrence of these conditions of stability in the disposition of the solar system is the work of chance? Such a supposition appears to be quite inadmissible. Any one of the orbitsmight have had any eccentricity.[19]In that of Mercury, where it is much the greatest, it is only one-fifth. How came it to pass that the orbits were not more elongated? A little more or a little less velocity in their original motions would have made them so. They might have had any inclination to the ecliptic fromnodegrees to 90 degrees. Mercury, which again deviates most widely, is inclined 7¾ degrees, Venus 3¾, Saturn 2¾, Jupiter 1½, Mars 2. How came it that their motions are thus contained within such a narrow strip of the sky? One, or any number of them, might have moved from east to west: none of them does so. And these circumstances, which appear to be, each in particular, requisite for the stability of the system and the smallness of its disturbances, are all found in combination. Does not this imply both clear purpose and profound skill?
It is difficult to convey an adequate notion of the extreme complexity of the task thus executed. A number of bodies, all attracting each other, are to be projected in such a manner that their revolutions shall be permanent and stable, their mutual perturbations always small. If we return to the basin with its rolling balls, by which we before represented the solar system, we must complicate with new conditions the trial of skill which we supposed. The problem must now be to project at once seven such balls, all connected by strings which influence their movements, so that each may hit its respective mark. And we must further suppose, that the marks are to be hit after many thousand revolutions of the balls. No one will imagine that this could be done by accident.
In fact it is allowed by all those who have considered this subject, that such a coincidence of the existingstate with the mechanical requisites of permanency cannot be accidental. Laplace has attempted to calculate the probability that it is not the result of accident. He takes into account, in addition to the motions which we have mentioned, the revolutions of the satellites about their primaries, and of the sun and planets about their axes: and he finds that there is a probability, far higher than that which we have for the greater part of undoubted historical events, that these appearances are not the effect of chance. “We ought, therefore,” he says, “to believe, with at least the same confidence, that a primitive cause has directed the planetary motions.”
The solar system is thus, by the confession of all sides, completely different from any thing which we might anticipate from the casual operation of its known laws. The laws of motion are no less obeyed to the letter in the most irregular than in the most regular motions; no less in the varied circuit of the ball which flies round a tennis court, than in the going of a clock; no less in the fantastical jets and leaps which breakers make when they burst in a corner of a rocky shore, than in the steady swell of the open sea. The laws of motion alone will not produce the regularity which we admire in the motions of the heavenly bodies. There must be an original adjustment of the system on which these laws are to act; a selection of the arbitrary quantities which they are to involve; a primitive cause which shall dispose the elements in due relation to each other, in order that regular recurrence may accompany constant change; that perpetual motion may be combined with perpetual stability; that derangements which go on increasing for thousands or for millions of years may finally cure themselves; and that the same laws which lead the planets slightly aside from their paths, may narrowly limit their deviations, and bring them back from their almost imperceptible wanderings.
If a man does not deny that any possible peculiarity in the disposition of the planets with regard to thesun could afford evidence of a controlling and ordering purpose, it seems difficult to imagine how he could look for evidence stronger than that which there actually is. Of all the innumerable possible cases of systems, governed by the existing laws of force and motion, that one is selected which alone produces such a steadfast periodicity, such a constant average of circumstances, as are, so far as we can conceive, necessary conditions for the existence of organic and sentient life. And this selection is so far from being an obvious or easily discovered means to this end, that the most profound and attentive consideration of the properties of space and number, with all the appliances and aids we can obtain, are barely sufficient to enableusto see that the end is thus secured, and that it can be secured in no other way. Surely the obvious impression which arises from this view of the subject is, that the solar system, with its adjustments, is the work of an intelligence, who perceives, as self-evident, those truths, to which we attain painfully and slowly, and after all imperfectly; who has employed in every part of creation refined contrivances, which we can only with effort understand; and who, in innumerable instances, exhibits to us what we should look upon as remarkable difficulties remarkably overcome, if it were not that, through the perfection of the provision, the trace of the difficulty is almost obliterated.