The emigration[15]at several ages shewn in Table VI, though graduated with much regularity, is very different in amount at particular ages from that which has been computed on page14(ante), and each person must form his own opinion as to which set of figures is likely to be nearest the truth.
Applying the final test previously used, by calculating the ratios of survivors indicated by the corrected figures, we have:—
Age at theend of the tenyears.
Proportion of survivors (includingemigrants) out of 100 males who wereliving ten years earlier.
The likeproportionaccording to theEnglish Life TableNo. 3.
According tocorrected figures,1851 and 1861.
According tocorrected figures,1861 and 1871.
10–15
87.1
87.0
86.4
15–20
94.3
94.8
94.2
20–25
93.7
94.1
93.7
25–30
92.0
92.0
92.0
30–35
91.4
91.1
90.9
35–40
90.6
89.8
89.9
40–45
89.3
88.3
88.6
45–50
87.4
86.4
86.8
50–55
84.9
84.3
84.3
55–60
81.0
80.2
80.5
60–65
76.6
75.1
75.3
65–70
68.8
66.5
67.7
70–75
57.7
56.3
56.9
75–80
42.9
40.8
43.5
These ratios, like those obtained from the corrected female population, shew a great deal of regularity, and resemble those derived from the English Life Table very closely, whilst they deviate widely from those based upon the uncorrected census figures.
It may perhaps be supposed that such resemblance is artificial, and is really the result of the adoption of the Life Table as a guide in the apportionment of the recorded deaths under the years of birth. I am, however, sure that such a use of the Life Table cannot have controlled the result to any very important extent. Any apportionment of deaths occurring amongst a gradually increasing population like that of England, effected on a consistent and reasonable plan, would necessarily come within a very few thousands of the figures shewn in Tables IV and VI, at least for that period of life extending over fifty years or thereabouts, which lies between childhood and old age.[16]
There is this further remark to be made, viz., that the series of ratios, though they resemble those derived from the Life Table, deviate from them at particular ages to a very appreciable extent thus:—
Males—Loss by death.
Females—Loss by death.
Age at endofdecennium.
Life Table.
CorrectedPopulation,1851/60.
CorrectedPopulation,1861/70.
Life Table.
CorrectedPopulation,1851/60.
CorrectedPopulation,1861/70.
25–30
8.0
8.0
8.0
8.4
8.6
8.1
30–35
9.1
8.6
8.9
9.6
9.5
9.0
35–40
10.1
9.4
10.2
10.4
10.0
9.9
40–45
11.4
10.7
11.7
11.4
11.0
10.9
45–50
13.2
12.6
13.6
12.6
11.7
11.8
50–55
15.7
15.1
15.7
14.1
13.2
13.2
55–60
19.5
19.0
19.8
16.8
15.3
15.4
60–65
24.7
23.4
24.9
21.8
19.8
20.5
The actual mortality seems in general to be lower than that shewn in the Life Table, sometimes to the extent of five or six or even nine per cent. If, therefore, we were to compute the numbers of deaths on the basis of the Life Table, the result would be found to exceed the recorded deaths by many thousands. I naturally prefer to accept the teachings of the recorded facts, although they may not have been transposedquite correctly, rather than rely upon the Life Table,—which I feel sure has been graduated by some mathematical process at least as empirical as any estimate of mine. At the same time, I think I am bound to point out that so near a correspondence between the general character of my results and that of those obtained by mathematical graduation is a most important fact, tending to convince us more strongly than ever that great regularity would be found to exist in the age-distribution of deaths occurring amongst a large population, and during a moderately long period of time, if only a truthful record of ages could be secured.
Application of the suggested corrections.
On applying to the census figures of 1861 and 1871 for each of the eleven divisions, the proportional corrections shewn in Statements A and B, certain results were obtained, of which the following is an example:—
Age in1871.
Division VIII (North-Western). Female Population in
Ratio ofPopulation in1871to that in1861,(per cent.)
Nationalratio ofsurvivors(includingallowance forEmigrants.)
Difference.
1861.
1871.
10–15
205692
179947
87.5
87.5
. . .
15–20
167248
171382
102.5
94.7
+7.8
20–25
151238
155554
102.9
93.7
+9.2
25–30
149921
145825
97.3
91.9
+5.4
30–35
144649
131174
90.7
91.0
-.3
The final result of the above calculation is a column of differences which, if the rate of mortality in Lancashire and Cheshire exactly equalled that of the nation, would represent the gain or loss at each age on a balance of migrations. The whole of the differences thus ascertained for the eleven divisions respectively are shewn in Table VIII.
The last column in that table, shewing the differences for England and Wales, of course represents simply the effect ofmigrations. I think that the differences in the other columns, at ages up to 35, are almost wholly consequent upon migrations.[19a]The mortality in London and in Lancashire being greater than the average, the figures at those ages are perhaps less striking (because partially neutralised by such excessive mortality) than if the results of migrations stood out by themselves. It seems clear, in fact, that whilst the South-western countieslosemore than 26.8 per cent. of their young men in the ten years beginning with age 10 to 15 and ending with age 20 to 25, Londongainsrather more than 14.5 per cent. at the same time of life.
The ratios last mentioned, and many others which are shewn in Table VIII, are of great importance, as indicating the movements of large numbers of persons,[19b]and therefore, by way of rendering our impressions about their meaning more definite, I have taken the pains to apportion the deaths recorded in Divisions I, V, and VIII at certain ages, with the following results:—
Born in.
1861.
1871.
ApportionedDeaths,1861–70.
Loss orgain bymigrations.
Per cent. onPopulationin 1861.
The per centages in TableVIII being consequentlymade up thus—
Deaths
Loss orGain byMigrations.
Loss orgaincomparedwithaveragedeath loss.[20]
Loss orgain bymigrations.
Total.
Male Population (corrected.)
Div. I.London.
1851–55
147228
141937
7849
+2558
5.3
+1.7
-.1
+1.7
+1.6
1846–50
130615
141809
8042
+19236
6.1
+14.7
-.2
+14.7
+14.5
1841–45
118767
134948
11004
+27185
9.3
+22.9
-1.3
+22.9
+21.6
1836–40
120587
118776
12405
+10594
10.3
+8.8
-1.4
+8.8
+7.4
Div. V.So.-west.
1851–55
106614
91014
4601
-10999
4.3
-10.3
+.9
-10.3
-9.4
1846–50
100897
67943
4838
-28116
4.8
-27.9
+1.1
-27.9
-26.8
1841–45
96505
57468
5637
-27400
6.2
-30.3
+1.8
-30.3
-28.5
1836–40
69223
50745
5430
-13048
7.8
-18.9
+1.1
-18.9
-17.8
Div. VIII.Lanc. and Chesh.
1851–55
166782
160706
10641
+4565
6.4
+2.7
-1.2
+2.7
+1.6
1846–50
150583
145788
10945
+6150
7.3
+4.1
-1.4
+4.1
+2.7
1841–45
138424
133781
13247
+8604
9.6
+6.2
-1.6
+6.2
+4.6
1836–40
132498
119061
13348
-89
10.1
-.1
-1.2
-.1
-1.2
Female Population (corrected.)
Div. I.London.
1851–55
149084
164132
7810
+22858
5.2
+15.3
+.1
+15.3
+15.4
1846–50
133936
165675
7908
+39647
5.9
+29.6
+.4
+29.6
+30.0
1841–45
139844
155003
10469
+25628
7.5
+18.3
+.6
+18.3
+18.9
1836–40
143074
136729
11944
+5599
8.3
+3.9
+7
+3.9
+4.6
Div. V.So.-west.
1851–55
106074
90500
4892
-10682
4.6
-10.1
+.7
-10.1
-9.4
1846–50
97784
77303
5375
-15106
5.5
-15.4
+.8
-15.4
-14.6
1841–45
91581
68751
6249
-16581
6.8
-18.1
+1.3
-18.1
-16.8
1836–40
77717
61231
5950
-10536
7.7
-13.5
+1.3
-13.5
-12.2
Div. VIII.Lanc. and Chesh.
1851–55
167248
171382
10115
+14249
6.0
+8.5
-.7
+8.5
+7.8
1846–50
151238
155554
11094
+15410
7.3
+10.2
-1.0
+10.2
+9.2
1841–45
149921
145825
14024
+9928
9.3
+6.6
-1.2
+6.6
+5.4
1836–40
144649
131174
14900
+1425
10.3
+1.0
-1.3
+1.0
-.3
Similar tables might be constructed for every age, and not only for each registration division, but for every registration district in the kingdom.
It will be observed that the apparent gain of the metropolitan division through migrations is less striking than might have been expected, although it is very large. But what is really shewn is thebalanceresulting, after deducting from thegainof strangers, thelossarising from the removal of families over the border of the division into extra metropolitan Middlesex, Surrey and Kent, or even into the nearer parts of Essex and Hertfordshire. If the London boundary were largely extended, it would be found that thegainby immigration from a distance is larger, and thelossby emigration is less, than now appears; and, in short, the statements whether of urban gain or of rural loss at ages up to 35 would be more striking than those exhibited in Table VIII.
After 35, both sexes in London and in the north-western counties exhibit a steady loss at each age, no doubt attributable in the main to the heavy mortality experienced in those divisions. The rural divisions numbered V and XI shew a loss until past the age of 50, due to emigration. These and several other agricultural divisions (those numbered II, III, and IV), shew considerable gains at the higher ages, partly due to their mortality being low, and partly resulting from other causes.
It is evident that those who emigrate beyond sea (from Division V for example) are older persons than those who leave their native division to seek employment at a short distance, as do the majority of those who migrate from the eastern counties (Division IV). Two-thirds of these latter are perhaps between the ages of 14 and 20 years when they depart, and very few of them can be more than 25 years old.
The apparent relative mortality of the sexes at certain ages must be influenced by the dissimilar degrees of inaccuracy in the population returns for males and females respectively, as the following short statement will shew:—
Mean population1861–71, fromuncorrectedfigures.
Mean population1861–71, fromcorrectedfigures.
Deaths1861–70.
Deaths per 1000.
Fromuncorrected.
Fromcorrected.
Males.
Fem’l’s.
Males.
Fem’l’s.
Males.
Fem’l’s.
M.
F.
M.
F.
15–20
1021321
1035205
1011321
1035632
62921
68553
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.6
20–25
906063
1011063
892063
938433
76591
80463
8.5
8.0
8.6
8.6
25–30
788782
886088
788782
849341
147734
160329
9.9
9.7
9.9
10.0
30–35
704005
769381
710005
761546
The facts I have stated, and the experiments I have made, are perhaps sufficient to suggest by what methods of estimation an idea can be gained of the distribution of population as to ages, when once the total increase or decrease is known.[22]But they also tend to shew the difficulties which surround the subject, and the need which exists that enquirers should summon up sufficient courage to treat with a certain degree of freedom the returns of the census and registration offices.
TABLE I.—Showing the Rate of Increase of Population (per cent.) of each sex andat each agein the several Registration Divisions of England and Wales during the ten years, 1851–61.
TABLE II.—Shewing the Proportion (per cent.) of Population enumerated in 1861 to that enumeratedat corresponding ages ten years earlier, in the several Registration Divisions, and in England and Wales.
[These two Tables having been calculated simply with the object of shewing that the proportional results obtainable by a comparison of the numbers enumerated at successive censuses, at particular ages, do not display sufficient regularity to justify the belief that such proportions would be approximately maintained decennium after decennium,—it is considered unnecessary to print them. The remaining Tables are printed in full, as without reference to, and careful consideration of, the facts they display, the paper would almost lose its significance.]
TABLE III.—Shewing the enumerated population in 1851, 1861, and 1871, at each quinquennial period of life, the estimated births in 1851–70, the registered deaths apportioned according to date of birth, and the numbers of inhabitants lost or gained, on the hypothesis of the correctness of the preceding figures.
Bornin
Population enumerated.
Deaths registered.
Difference—referable to errorsand migrations[23a]
Males.
Males.
1851–60.
1861–70.
1851.
1861.
1871.
1851–60.
1861–70.
Loss.
Gain.
Loss.
Gain.
1866–70
. . .
2011024[23b]
1536464
. . .
427200
. . .
. . .
47360
. . .
1861–65
. . .
1887702[23b]
1350819
. . .
546170
. . .
. . .
. . .
9287
1856–60
1751531[23b]
1354907
1220770
365536
180534
31088
. . .
. . .
46397
1851–55
1651656[23b]
1172960
1084713
482227
60259
. . .
3531
27988
. . .
1846–50
1176753
1059889
951917
156291
62499
. . .
39427
45473
. . .
1841–45
1050228
957930
843278
58497
75494
33801
. . .
39158
. . .
1836–40
963995
860210
746320
60004
75606
43781
. . .
38284
. . .
1831–35
873236
734287
640819
69604
74657
69345
. . .
18811
. . .
1826–30
795455
661690
590097
67451
77910
66314
. . .
. . .
6317
1821–25
699345
590280
506947
65694
81085
43371
. . .
2248
. . .
1816–20
617889
551058
455788
66739
84309
92
. . .
10901
. . .
1811–15
532680
453310
345907
67483
89886
11887
. . .
17517
. . .
1806–10
474211
392196
294675
69394
95736
12621
. . .
1785
. . .
1801–05
392882
299000
205370
73888
103431
19994
. . .
. . .
9801
1796–1800
346104
265536
149887
78530
108473
2038
. . .
7176
. . .
1791–95
254892
175538
82091
84399
108450
. . .
5045
. . .
15003
1786–90
227240
128428
38573
90915
94795
7897
. . .
. . .
4940
1781–85
151640
71780
11685
92953
64919
. . .
13093
. . .
4824
1776–80
114730
34256
2383
83815
33036
. . .
3341
. . .
1163
1771–75
65016
10359
390
58972
11790
. . .
4315
. . .
1821
1766–70
31690
2191
41
30694
2768
. . .
1195
. . .
618
1761–65
10423
399
. . .
11270
397
. . .
1246
2
. . .
1756–60
2282
55
. . .
2781
25
. . .
554
30
. . .
1751–55
456
. . .
. . .
463
. . .
. . .
7
. . .
. . .
1746–50
78
. . .
. . .
28
. . .
50
. . .
. . .
. . .
Age not stated
. . .
. . .
. . .
908
. . .
. . .
908
. . .
. . .
Totals
12184412
13674985
11058934
2138536
2459489
342279
72662
256733
100171
Females.
Females.
1866–70
. . .
1936784[23c]
1534812
. . .
359329
. . .
. . .
42643
. . .
1861–65
. . .
1814081[23c]
1355707
. . .
473449
. . .
. . .
. . .
15075
1856–60
1681961[23c]
1345875
1203469
305511
172128
30575
. . .
. . .
29722
1851–55
1586949[23c]
1171106
1095699
419780
61093
. . .
3937
14314
. . .
1846–50
1171354
1045287
1052843
151062
66098
. . .
24995
. . .
73654
1841–45
1042131
974712
937299
60003
79459
7416
. . .
. . .
42016
1836–40
949362
969283
813675
65106
81018
. . .
85027
74590
. . .
1831–35
883953
834877
700534
76754
79463
. . .
27678
54880
. . .
1826–30
871152
725088
639705
76237
77870
69827
. . .
7513
. . .
1821–25
771130
634262
546094
73309
76696
63559
. . .
11472
. . .
1816–20
658237
583069
488901
70730
75357
4438
. . .
18811
. . .
1811–15
555879
477530
372261
67174
77049
11175
. . .
28220
. . .
1806–10
494408
414367
328010
63923
84997
16118
. . .
1360
. . .
1801–05
406107
315004
235868
65030
97481
26073
. . .
. . .
18345
1796–1800
362697
290704
174086
72028
108636
. . .
35
7982
. . .
1791–95
271395
201034
99896
82975
114233
. . .
12614
. . .
13095
1786–90
254070
152917
51265
93843
105704
7310
. . .
. . .
4052
1781–85
175879
88860
17896
99612
78080
. . .
12593
. . .
7116
1776–80
135432
45403
4338
94274
43589
. . .
4245
. . .
2524
1771–75
81086
15608
855
71487
17466
. . .
6009
. . .
2713
1766–70
42150
3994
119
40514
4849
. . .
2358
. . .
974
1761–65
14982
839
. . .
16604
894
. . .
2461
. . .
55
1756–60
3969
146
. . .
4724
73
. . .
901
73
. . .
1751–55
874
. . .
. . .
921
. . .
. . .
47
. . .
. . .
1746–50
137
. . .
. . .
76
. . .
61
. . .
. . .
. . .
Age not stated
. . .
. . .
. . .
502
. . .
. . .
502
. . .
. . .
Totals
12415294
14040830
11653332
2072179
2386011
236552
183402
261858
209371
TABLE IV.—Shewing the Female population in 1851, 1861, and 1871, as corrected upon certain hypotheses, the estimated births in 1851–70, the registered deaths, apportioned according to date of birth, after adjustment, and the loss or gain of inhabitants upon a balance of migrations.
Born in
Population (corrected).
Deaths registered.
Loss or gain by migrations.
Females.
Females.
1851–60.
1861–70.
1851.
1861.
1871.
1851–60.[24b]
1861–70.
Loss.
Gain.
Lose.
Gain.
1866–70
. . .
1936784[24a]
1571448
. . .
359329
. . .
. . .
6007
. . .
1861–65
. . .
1822952[24a]
1340794
. . .
473449
. . .
. . .
8709
. . .
1856–60
1690145[24a]
1379277
1203469
305511
172128
5357
. . .
3680
. . .
1851–65
1586949[24a]
1157052
1094603
419780
61093
10117
. . .
1350
. . .
1846–50
1203052
1046332
981249
151062
66098
5658
. . .
. . .
1015
1841–45
1028583
976661
898871
60003
79459
. . .
8081
. . .
1669
1836–40
954109
895618
809607
65106
81018
. . .
6015
4993
. . .
1831–35
887489
799812
711042
76754
79463
10923
. . .
9307
. . .
1826–30
804073
713486
624991
76237
77870
14350
. . .
10625
. . .
1821–25
736430
652021
567938
73309
76696
11100
. . .
7387
. . .
1816–20
645730
569658
488901
70730
75357
5342
. . .
5400
. . .
1811–15
573667
501406
421400
67174
77019
5087
. . .
2957
. . .
1806–10
483036
415610
328010
63923
84997
3503
. . .
2603
. . .
1801–05
426412
357844
258275
65030
98802
3538
. . .
767
. . .
1796–1800
364148
290704
177568
72028
112636
1416
. . .
500
. . .
1791–95
308305
222745
104192
84226
118269
1334
. . .
284
. . .
1786–90
254070
156434
49008
97626
107225
10
. . .
201
. . .
1781–85
195578
92680
17144
103438
70172
. . .
540
. . .
636
1776–80
138547
43269
4121
95728
39172
. . .
450
. . .
24
1771–75
84572
14952
641
69678
14330
. . .
58
. . .
19
1766–70
40043
3734
60
36401
3732
. . .
92
. . .
58
1761–65
14188
614
. . .
13613
617
. . .
39
. . .
3
1756–60
3671
56
. . .
3631
50
. . .
16
6
. . .
1751–55
629
. . .
. . .
636
. . .
. . .
7
. . .
. . .
1746–50
52
. . .
. . .
53
. . .
. . .
1
. . .
. . .
Totals
12423478
14049701
11653332
2071677
2335011
77735
15899
64782
3424